March 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

March roaring in like a Lion or a Lamb this year???  For parts of the Midwest/Lakes, it is indeed like a Lion with temps about to crash after a very warm weekend.  How long will the wintry pattern last???  Is a taste of Spring on the horizon???  How many more chances of snow will there be on the table???  Let's discuss.

 

Well, there is another system sliding down the slot that may target the very same regions who are going to get snowfall on Tuesday.  Here are a couple models showing the potential.

 

 

[Geos]

How snowy is this week going to be!?

Another 2-5" on Thursday by the looks of it.

[Geos]

EURO is favoring NW IL down towards Kankakee. Looks like a 2-4" event on that model.

 

It actually develops an f-gen band near the stateline as the storm pivots around Chicago.

[gosaints]

Keep that snow south of here.  Dont want it waste the first day or two of the incoming torch

[Tom]

12z Euro coming in with a very similar track as the GFS/NAM/GGEM...time to start another storm thread Geo's????  HAHA...

 

Looks like another cold system with favorable snow ratios.

[Tom]

Euro targeting the same regions again with a Clipper Friday night...

[gosaints]

This looks fun

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022912/ecmwf_T850_us_8.png

[Torchtastic]

GFS is a torch through hour 384, unreal. Great ensemble support too. this is going to rule so hard.

[Snowshoe]

Keep that snow south of here.  Dont want it waste the first day or two of the incoming torch

 

At this point I agree. Very disappointing winter for the northern half of Wisconsin. Time to get the boat ready!

[FV-Mike]

GFS is a torch through hour 384, unreal. Great ensemble support too. this is going to rule so hard.

is this the alter ego of Maxim?

[Geos]

Starting a thread for the next 2 waves. 

 

With all the snow on the way I expect the warm up will be pushed back a  couple days.

Warm weekend is out of the cards here now on the EURO and GFS. 

[gosaints]

Starting a thread for the next 2 waves.

 

With all the snow on the way I expect the warm up will be pushed back a couple days.

Warm weekend is out of the cards here now on the EURO and GFS.

Maybe for those with snow cover. These arent spread the wealth blizzards. it is typical to get pushed back at times.but this snow wouldnt be the cause

[Geos]

GFS backed off on the warm Monday.

 

 

Temps will be held back with all this snow for 2-3 days is my guess.

 

[gosaints]

We will.see maybe in places with a deeo pack. That same gfs warms it to 58 here overnight tuesday

[Torchtastic]

lol classic geos... the March sun will obliterate the snowpack in no time.

[Geos]

Only thing I'm getting at is that the warm up is shrinking next week and the snow cover is part of the story.

[gosaints]

Only thing I'm getting at is that the warm up is shrinking next week and the snow cover is part of the story.

850s break freezing.at 126 and.never drop below through 384....

[Torchtastic]

If anything, the warm signal has grown stronger in the med/long range. I'm really thinking we're going to see some pretty anomalous warmth this month for the midwest and points east.

[gosaints]

Only thing I'm getting at is that the warm up is shrinking next week and the snow cover is part of the story.

The swath of snow created by this storm is so narrow I have a hard time believeing it is going to affect an aitmass of the magnitude that is progged to enter the US.  If you have a foot of snow sure it will affect your backyard for a bit.  Warm ups tend to suck in your neck of the woods that way it is this time of the year...

[Torchtastic]

much more will depend on whether we get a wind off the lake one of those days or not. The snow cover will be history by the weekend.

[Torchtastic]

Could actually be flirting with 80F sometime next week if the Euro and its ensembles were to verify. We'll see though 

[gosaints]

Not only does the medium-long range look warm also looks quite active

[gosaints]

looks wet

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016030106/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

[gosaints]

Not saying it will verify but verbatim the GFS has some stupid nighttime lows next week

[Niko]

GFS backed off on the warm Monday.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016022918/gfs_T2m_namer_29.png

 

Temps will be held back with all this snow for 2-3 days is my guess.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160229/18Z/f204/acckucherasnowmw.png

I am in the bulls eye!!

[gosaints]

I am in the bulls eye!!

Ya if you manage a foot sure it will hurt.  Most of our 2.5 inches will be close to or completely gone before the next round.  

[westMJim]

Today here at my house I have gotten light to moderate and at times almost heavy snow. There also was some sleet and freezing rain tossed in to boot. Right now I have 6” of new snow. If the NWS office here (GRR) is close to my snow amounts it will be a new March 1^st snow fall record here in Grand Rapids as today record is only 2.4” set in 2014. And that is by far the lowest record maximum snow fall for Grand Rapids for the whole month of March so for some reason March 1^st has not been a snowy day here in the past. Still getting moderate snow here!

[Geos]

A few days in the 60s next week will feel pretty good. 

[hlcater]

 

After this winter, you don't know how good it feels to see that in the forecast again.

[gosaints]

GFS jumping back from decent torch(0z) to epic torch (12z)

[gosaints]

I thought march was suppose to be colder than normal

[FV-Mike]

I thought march was suppose to be colder than normal

Bastardi?

[gosaints]

Bastardi?

cohen, JB yep 

 

modoki..... ya that worked out

[Geos]

GFS jumping back from decent torch(0z) to epic torch (12z)

 

I thought march was suppose to be colder than normal

 

You consider some 60s in March epic?

 

Epic was 2012.

[gosaints]

You consider some 60s in March epic?

 

Epic was 2012.

LOL ok GEOS.  60s in the first half of march yes I do consider that epic.  2012 happens once in a lifetime.

 

Cold air source is looking bleaker and bleaker.  tick tock tick tock

 

The Morch will cooler but wetter.

[CentralNebWeather]

I try and watch Bastardi's daily video update for us non members.  He really talks up his pre winter forecast and how it is almost spot on, according to him.  Maybe he is trying to sell more subscriptions.  

[Geos]

LOL ok GEOS.  60s in the first half of march yes I do consider that epic.  2012 happens once in a lifetime.

 

Cold air source is looking bleaker and bleaker.  tick tock tick tock

 

The Morch will cooler but wetter.

 

Haha. just messin'

The region needs the moisture. I welcome it.

[BrianJK]

It's March.  Only welcome snow for me at this point would have to be double digits.  Otherwise, bring on the torch.  Ready to start enjoying being outside.

[westMJim]

It was a cold early March night here in West Michigan Last night with lows just above zero I had a low here at my house of +3°.  The forecast for tonight is for around 3” of snow so we will see how that plays out.  GRR is now up to 49.4” of snow this season and here at my house I now have 7” of snow on the ground. With the highs expected to reach the 50’s and low 60’s next week it looks like all the big snow piles will be gone soon. Last year the snow was all but gone by March 11^th But in 2014 there was at least 1” of snow on the ground until March 25^th and there was a trace reported for the whole month of March.

[Niko]

One more shot of snow here in SEMI and then, the nice warm-up. Looking forward to warmer temps. Last night picked up 1.8inches and more to come late tonight into tomorrow somewhere in the 2-3inch range.

 

Come mid month....I am ready for Spring!!!