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March 2016 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Nws Hastings:

 

 

We are likely to see a bigtime cooldown middle-late next week. The

GFS/ec/Gem ensemble means forecast major amplification of a ridge along

the West Coast of Canada up into Alaska and this always dumps cold air S

into the central USA.

 

 

Yeah, it's looking like winter won't be over until after winter is over...  :(

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I guess the Polar Vortex is going to have the last laugh as we get a taste of what my fellow Europeans have been enduring over in Europe.

 

Week 2 colder/wintry pattern getting more impressive on the EPS/Control.  It's too bad we didn't see this type of late season blocking (expect in January) during the heart of winter this year.  Winter's last stance???

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I think I smell Spring in the air, especially once Spring rolls on in. I was sweating in the 70s yesterday and the day before. Also, the time will go an Hour ahead this weekend. So, all of this spells Spring! Even if we do get snow now in March, I am not as excited as I would be in the Late Autumn and especially Winter season because even a foot of snow will be gone very, very soon. So, what is the point of going through all of that slop. DJF are the prime months for snowstorms followed by Arctic Air.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I have to agree winter is not done yet. Don't put away the winter coats yet. 

 

Looks like the 16th is the day of transition.

A Hudson Bay low takes up residence for most of the long range. Great Lakes look to be below normal for awhile.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I have to agree winter is not done yet. Don't put away the winter coats yet. 

 

Looks like the 16th is the day of transition.

A Hudson Bay low takes up residence for most of the long range. Great Lakes look to be below normal for awhile.

Going back to normal maybe slightly below.  GEFS have moderated the cool down in recent runs.  Typical for this winter

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I have to agree winter is not done yet. Don't put away the winter coats yet. 

 

Looks like the 16th is the day of transition.

A Hudson Bay low takes up residence for most of the long range. Great Lakes look to be below normal for awhile.

 

I'm not cheering on either extreme, Morch nor frigid finish. Good news for those dreading more winter after this early spring taste is that the lakes themselves are virtually ice-free. When this upcoming cold period breaks, we should rebound quickly unlike the past two years when heavy ice cover really slowed spring's progress.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Will have to watch this cold pool that builds in central Canada starting next week. Seems to be a result of increased blocking over the North Atlantic. 

 

 

to this

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Will have to watch this cold pool that builds in central Canada starting next week. Seems to be a result of increased blocking over the North Atlantic. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016031112/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_namer_6.png

 

to this

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016031112/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_namer_10.png

brutal.  still warm enough for cold rain in geos's backyard

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@ GEOS

 

not seeing any images in your post?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ GEOS

 

not seeing any images in your post?

 

If you can't see them... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=T2ma5d&runtime=2016031112&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=195

 

But you really should, they're nothing special in terms of file type.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Euro showing the inevitable moderation nicely

 

 

That is actually chilly. 2m temps are in the 30s, except near I-70 south and east of Indy.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That is actually chilly. 2m temps are in the 30s, except near I-70 south and east of Indy.

That map verbatim would probably equate to close to normal around here give or take depending on cloud cover.  Its above normal at 850 mb.  I buy the cool down.  But its nothing extreme given the time of the year. 

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My sugar maple tree is starting to bud out. Have lived in this house for 14 years and the earliest by several weeks that this has occurred.attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Only March I've seen my sugar maples swell their buds like that was 2012. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Today there was about a 20 degree difference over 20 miles between the lake and inland areas. 

High of 43° here today, but near 60 inland. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Such a great day no idea why geos is posting about a system 8 days away

 

It's cool and cloudy here with rain about to move in. Probably nicer up by your area.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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65 here. Torch torch away. Your cold is looking benign

 

Still looking below normal for a time. Definitely not a torch.

Falling NAO and PNA would favor a Midwest trough.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Out of all the Met's out there, Gary Lezak by far had the best general temp forecast for the Dec-Feb period.  Here was his forecast vs actual departures.

 

Forecast vs Actual...

 

 

He has been fairly accurate over the last 3 years that I've been following him.  Gotta give his forecasts some credit.

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I keep waiting for this crazy weather pattern to kick in, but for the past 6 weeks it's been about as boring as you can get around here.

You are correct.  We were supposed to have a cold and stormy March but it is now starting above normal just like the rest of the months.  NWS Hastings was talking about a potential storm the end of this week but now just cooler and maybe a few showers.  Time to put this winter to bed and hope for better in the 2016-2017 winter.  

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Joe Bastardi in his Saturday summary called his winter forecast the good, the bad, and the ugly with some of his misses.  He seemed really surprised how warm March has been, and besides cooler this weekend, I get the feeling he thinks this winter is on its last legs or done.   He keeps mentioning a strong La Nina for next winter.  

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Grand Rapids Michigan is now at +5.7° for this March and unless the upcoming cool down is bigger then foretasted this should be the warmest March since 2012 but that record in 2012 .

  in March of 2012 we had a very remarkable warm event take place. This was not a one or two day “warm” spell that we sometimes get in March but instead lasted  (at Grand Rapids) for 12 days. It started in earnest on March 14th when Grand Rapids had a high of 80° and for the next 12 days we had temps that would be more like June then March. Reaching a peak on March 21st with a high of 87° In all in that 12-day stretch Grand Rapids had 5 days of 80 or warmer 5 days of 71 or warmer and 2 days in the 60’s

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