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September 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Just as we had all models on board a major soaker for my area, the Euro turns into a disaster.  This run is so strong and cuts the upper low off so far west, and stalls it there, it leads to the southeast third of Iowa getting dry-slotted with little to no rain at all.  Meanwhile, the deformation zone dumps widespread major rain just nw.  I will be super po'd if it pans out this way.

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That doesn't  surprise  me in the least. Thats been the scenario  several times past 3 months or  missouri gets flooded. Highway 34 seems to be some weird connection  to Scotts Bluff Nebraska. You've heard "the trend is your friend"?  Well here in my part(Ottumwa  Fairfield, not Oskaloosa which is green just 18 miles away) HERE THE TREND IS MY ENEMY 

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Euro has me at almost 2".  We'll see.  Seems awfully high with our current drought conditions.839993100_Euro97.thumb.png.c510ce48509dbc4e3bf4b1428343ae08.png

The EPS looks great for your area, the GEFS not so much.  The Euro wraps the storm up like a winter storm which seems rather bizarre for this time of year but I hope it's right.

 qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_c.png

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I went out on my patio deck around 3:00am and instantly felt the humidity as DP's are in the mid 60's.  The cloud shield from Hurricane Kay have made it into the valley.  I should see a beautfiul sunrise with the high cirrus clouds so I'll attempt to take a morning walk around sunrise which is now just past 6:00am (6:07am).  

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Big Time rains coming right where nature will begin to put a damper on the wild fires and drought.  @IMoveALot_Weather should reap some of the rewards from nature.  I suspect too much of a good thing and there will be flash flooding across So Cal.   When it rains, it pours...

 

Boy, the system shaping up later this weekend will bring a real shot of cool/wet weather for many of you in the heartland of the nation.  It's going to look and feel like Autumn for some of you depending on the track.  0z Euro suggesting daytime highs in the 50's for parts of the panhandle of NE on Sat and then into N GL's by Sun.

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0z Euro still showing a good track to spread moisture near the I-80 corridor....

 

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 79/56 there was no rain fall reported and there was 99% of possible sunshine. The over night low here in MBY was 56 the official overnight low was 55. For today the average H/L remains at 77/56 the record high of 95 was recorded in 1897,1922 and 1960 the record low of 36 was recorded in 1951.

We are now 1/3rd way thru September 2022 and at Grand Rapids the mean so far is 69.3 that is a departure of +1.7 the highest reading this month so far has been 85 and the coolest so far 56. (it was 55 last night) and so far just 0.03” of rain fall. Now remember that mean of 69.3 for Grand Rapids. Because at Lansing their mean is at 69.4 but their departure is +2.8. Lansing has recorded 0.57” of rain fall. The mean at Holland is at 69.8 and that is a departure from average of +3.1 and they have had no rain fall yet. And at Muskegon were lake Michigan has kept them warm their mean is at a summer like 71.5 that is a departure from average of +4.1. The coolest so far this month there is just 59. There has been no rain fall so far at Muskegon.

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Had a low last nite of 51F under crystal clear skies. You could actually feel that crisp, cool Autumn air. Also, some color has been reported around my area. Beautiful time of the year.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I'll be moving to Grand Island for a job next month. GI doesn't exactly have the best reputation 😂, but it probably won't be for more than a couple years. I'm excited for the change and still only 1.5 hours from Lincoln when I'm bored. The climate is basically identical to Lincoln, just a little drier and slightly snowier on average. GRI averages 27.7" compared to 26" at LNK. Kind of thought it would be a greater difference since large storms have the tendency to sharply cut north before hitting Lincoln. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Big Time rains coming right where nature will begin to put a damper on the wild fires and drought.  @IMoveALot_Weather should reap some of the rewards from nature.  I suspect too much of a good thing and there will be flash flooding across So Cal.   When it rains, it pours...

Yup, it's about time. Though the worst of the rain (or best) should happen over the Imperial Valley.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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We’re at 80* at 9:45am. On our way to 92*
Humid - 73%. 
 

Very typical September forecast.  Nice to see the norms.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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No severe weather on the horizon as the months of lack of any real severe weather continues...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

My parents live up in Yankton, SD and they're expecting 98 today but only 66 tomorrow. Unfortunately, not much for moisture though and as stated no severe weather with such a strong front.

Next week keeps getting warmer as well as any kind of pattern shift has seemingly gone away.

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I hate September. Most boring weather of the year with rapid loss of daylight.

The entire August 15 - October 15 period is by far my least favorite weather wise. Not much to look forward to until stronger fronts/dynamics arrive later in October.

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Models have shifted the heaviest weekend rain into Wisconsin as the upper low now does not dig as far south and west.  Fortunately, models do show a solid band of rain moving through eastern Iowa late Saturday, so I could still get up to an inch.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Keep in mind, those are GFS temp outputs which are not known for being accurate especially at 300+ hours.

As an example of it's temperature struggles, here's the GFS projected temp for FSD vs. what the actual temp was...

Tuesday: 95 vs. 88

Wednesday: 99 vs. 89

Today: Forecasted to hit 105 but currently only sitting at 91

A ten degree difference is huge as it would effectively change those hot and stuffy mid 90s to a much more manageable mid 80s. Of course it doesn't always work out to be a 10 degree difference, but the point stands.

Also important to keep ensembles in mind. Here's last night's EPS frame for that same time. Certainly doesn't scream widespread 95+ degree temps to me. The uncertainty is also present in the 850mb temp spaghetti graph below which shows a fair amount of spread post-15th or so and especially around the timeframe you captured in your frames.

All this to say - while the trough this weekend is a little more fleeting than initially anticipated, I wouldn't write off the second half of September just yet.

14-km EPS Global 500 hPa Height Anom 500 hPa Height Anom 312.png

ens_image.php?geoid=132912&var=201&run=0

That pattern on the EPS would be cool for you but warm here. Lots of SW flow verbatim.

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Football practice today, 95 with a dew of 61 and south winds gusting to 25 mph. Didn’t feel too bad. You know it’s been a long, hot summer when 95 is bearable. Potential of 1” of rain Friday night into Saturday. High on Saturday may not reach 60 and a low Saturday night of 42. What a change. Tomorrow only a high of 70 with northeast winds. Friday night football should be cool with the potential of rain late. Hello sweatshirt weather. 

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9 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Football practice today, 95 with a dew of 61 and south winds gusting to 25 mph. Didn’t feel too bad. You know it’s been a long, hot summer when 95 is bearable. Potential of 1” of rain Friday night into Saturday. High on Saturday may not reach 60 and a low Saturday night of 42. What a change. Tomorrow only a high of 70 with northeast winds. Friday night football should be cool with the potential of rain late. Hello sweatshirt weather. 

The long awaited "Taste of Autumn"...I bet your gonna feel the chill and welcome it with open arms!  Glad this system appears to share some much needed moisture for a lot of you.

0z EURO/UKIE showing some consistency...

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The Monsoon has really done some good work on the drought in the 4 corners...

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As mentioned before, the Mtn's of AZ have almost completely reversed course in terms of the drought, however, the higher terrain of CO/WY  have reversed their drought conditions...(you don't hear that in the news)...hope the eco-anxiety folks take a look deeper into the benefits that nature has delivered across our vast country.  Oh, and yes, my early calls for this region and the intermountain west for Winter is to get pounded with Snow.  Something tells me that nature has beneficial surprises for those who are worried about the water levels.  Natural cycles.

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38 minutes ago, Tom said:

The long awaited "Taste of Autumn"...I bet your gonna feel the chill and welcome it with open arms!  Glad this system appears to share some much needed moisture for a lot of you.

0z EURO/UKIE showing some consistency...

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It's good to see some of that rain make it down I to the KC area.  The north side of the city is about 5 to 6 inches below average since June 1st while on the southeast side I'm 1.5 above average since June 1st.

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Some of the LR clues in the Strat maps I tend to rely on are signaling an interesting end to Sep and start to OCT.  Ironically, it's the EPS and the Euro Weeklies that are "sniffing" it out as the JMA weeklies and CFSv2 are not on the same page.  It's the NE PAC ridge, the return of the "Warm Blob"...waters have really warmed in this region and I suspect the models to have some issues.  In years past, the Euro has been known to have a bias in this region, but I'm in somewhat of an awe to see that it is the only model right now showing this Ridge pattern across the NE PAC

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The blossoming warmth towards the end of the animation in the NE PAC and Alaska tells me to look for ridging end of SEP and opening of OCT...

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The latest Euro Weeklies "seeing" this???  I strongly believe so....in fact, I'll double down on this LR forecast...for those LRC followers, look at that potential beginning to the month of OCT....Wowza!

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Even with the known bias of the EPS weeklies running a bit warm, these temp anomalies look real comfy to me...we will more than likely welcome the Autumnal Equinox with cooler temps and active wx...I agree with @hawkstwelve, 2nd half of SEP still has a good potential to "feel" more autumn-like for our Sub.

 

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I'll end the post with this....#ThinkSnow...Blessings from Mother Nature!

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Starting out at 69*.  We’ll top out at 90*. 
Humidity a wonderful 38% !  
 

Fall isn’t far away!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/55. There was no rain fall and 92% of possible sunshine was reported. The overnight low in MBY and at GRR was 57. There is fog reported at GRR while here it is clear and 58 at the current time. For today the average H/L in now down to 77/56 The record high of 95 was reported in 1897 and the record low of 37 was in 1975. 

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It has been warm and dry so far this September. Temperatures have been very unform with the mean so far being 69.2 at both Grand Rapids and Lansing. At Holland the mean so far is 69.3 Muskegon has been warmer and their mean is 71.1. All locations are warmer than average so far this month. It has been mostly dry so far with no rain fall reported yet in Muskegon and Holland just 0.03" at Grand Rapids so far Lansing is the wet spot with 0.57" and even that is below average so far. That could change late this weekend as there could be a good amount of rain fall.

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Someone should tell Mother Nature/Lake Mead about the cycles as Lake Mead seems to have been waiting for 20+ years.

6A2D97AB-3D8C-447A-A044-30E8E9CDEE83.jpeg

Next 20 years will be telling...the end of this current drought cycle I believe is ending...

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I'm expecting lows in the mid-50s Monday Morning. It's going to feel like fall! But for a short while before the Cockroach Ridge returns. (Not the death ridge since 100s are no longer expected)

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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11 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Someone should tell Mother Nature/Lake Mead about the cycles as Lake Mead seems to have been waiting for 20+ years.

6A2D97AB-3D8C-447A-A044-30E8E9CDEE83.jpeg

There are many cycles in nature.

Weather is no different on the short scale, climate on the long. Some cycles are short, some long. Its not chaos. Its balance. It takes a lot of study of the whole picture without any other input to figure at least that out.

Predictability will never be perfect. Weather isn't digital. It's fluid. Got to look at bare facts, not opinions. That's all. 

Not the first drought to happen there. Or in TX. Nowhere near the worst, either.

People didn't always have to be scared, lied to, paid or coerced into responsibility and conservation. Maybe that plays a part. Waste and lack of wisdom? Surely not. 

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