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September 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I got 0.73".  It underperformed a bit, but it's still decent, easily the best rain since early August.

Ended up with 0.75" in my backyard here in Omaha from this system... as you mentioned Hawkeye - this system underperformed just a little bit however it was still a nice, soaking rainfall that we desperately needed. 

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Dropped to 45 early this morning. Wonderful last few days of weather. Unfortunately, the heat returns Tuesday going forward. 

I will be out at Husker Harvest Days in Grand Island most of next week helping out in a tent with one of my top distributors... it looks like it's going to be very warm out there all three days, ugh (after the forecast showed it was going to be fairly pleasant last week). 

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34 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

I will be out at Husker Harvest Days in Grand Island most of next week helping out in a tent with one of my top distributors... it looks like it's going to be very warm out there all three days, ugh (after the forecast showed it was going to be fairly pleasant last week). 

Supposed to be a good breeze out of the south. Hopefully dews would be fairly low as irrigation season has ended. I’ve already gotten used to this cool weather and not wanting anymore 90’s. 

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17 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Ended up with 0.75" in my backyard here in Omaha from this system... as you mentioned Hawkeye - this system underperformed just a little bit however it was still a nice, soaking rainfall that we desperately needed. 

I dont  think the system  underperformed  at all in Southeast  Iowa?   I have seen dozens of reports  from i35 to Burlington  of about 1 inch or more. Around Ottumwa  I heard from maybe 7 friends with 1.20 or more. Jefferson  county had many east of Ottumwa  pushing 1.50 plus?  The southern  Iowa drought has been  going strong for several months particularly  places like Ottumwa Eldon Fairfield.  Its about time something overperformed that wasnt a small strip or stripe, I have or manage  over 25 hunting plots on over 20 farms across southern Iowa and is the very  first widespread  since maybe March!!!

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63*, heading for 87* today   Dew 54
Nice late summer/early fall day  We’ll take it!

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Wow, what an eventful day yesterday....not just in Chitown, but here in the PHX valley we shared in the wild weather!  The Bears vs 49'rs game was interesting and the weather certainly played a very big role for the last 10 minutes or so of the game.  The field looked like a slip n slide towards the end of the game!  Crazy.  The city saw some wild flash flooding as a ribbon of 4-6" of rain fell right through the heart of the city.  

Sewer covers were begin blown off...

 

Last evening, a cluster of severe warned storms formed in the southern parts of the valley and tracked due north into the PHX valley around 7pm local time kicking up dust and rather gusty winds.  I zonked out super early but the winds woke me up at times as the storms rolled in.  You can see the outflow boundary on the radar loop below...

 

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Finally, Sky Harbor got a direct hit last night by a Severe Warned storm and clocked a 80+mph wind gust and record 0.67" of rain.  Lot's of wind damage across the valley.  More storms are forecast to develop in a similar fashion later today and evening.

 

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Summer returns this coming week for most of our Sub as temps look to soar into the 90's over the Plains and then into MW this weekend.  The Ups & Downs of Fall will keep things interesting as we approach the official start of Autumn (9/22).  The system that is forecast to track into the PAC NW/N Rockies this weekend will likely bring the 1st sig Snows of the season.

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By the time we enter the Autumnal Equinox, it'll feel like Fall again for our members out west.  I've been watching for this system to deliver quite a punch but how much vigor it will deliver is TBD.  I fully anticipate a Severe Wx outbreak somewhere across the Upper MW/MW region during the 19th-21st period.  This front has the signature of a classic Autumn CF that slowly tracks down across the Sub.  Another round of big rains for IA/MN/WI/IL????

 

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 69/61 officially at the airport there was only 0.31” of rain fall, but here at my house I recorded much more at 1.52” There was no sunshine yesterday.  There was a large difference in rain fall amounts yesterday with Lansing getting only 0.22” Grand Rapids officially only 0.31” Holland 1.31” my house 1.52” and Muskegon 1.69”. The overnight low here in MBY and officially at GRR was 59. At the current time it is cloudy here and 60. The average H/L for today is 76/55 the record high of 95 was in 1952 and the record low of 37 was in 1964. Today looks to be a cool day with highs only in the 60’s

 

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I know it might be a bit early but I was cruising the 500mb charts to see if there are any hints of a new LRC forming yet. These two maps are 340 days apart and dividing by 5 gives 68 days (a little higher than the 64/65 day current cycle length). In short, this quick and dirty still overall looks pretty much like the same pattern to me.

(I know not everyone follows the LRC and I could be off in my thinking so this is for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. )😉😀

 

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I see LRC keeps getting mentioned as a means for long range forecasting. I don't believe I have ever heard of this method in the PNW subforums or elsewhere. Anyone care to shine a light on what that LRC tool entails? 

Its a unique technology that has been created by a meteorologist Gary Lezak out of Kansas City.  He is the guru who founded this LR forecasting technique.  You can go to his site an learn more about it.  https://weather2020.substack.com/

Oct/Nov are the months when the new cycle begins to evolve and when many LRC followers pay close attn to the developing wx pattern over the Northern Hemisphere.

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The GFS continues to wanna combine some of the remnants of Kay with a weak disturbance over the Rockies and bring some rain to the northern Plains and the lakes this weekend.  It would bring some added rainfall to parts of Nebraska and Iowa. The Euro not so much on board with this yet.

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The target period of the 19th-21st is starting to show some interesting runs on the models.  We will go from the late season "Summer Sizzle"...to the "September Chill"...

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0z Euro...night time lows as we welcome the Autumnal Equinox...

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Some local storm reports from the excessive rains that fell in N IL...

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Out in the desert, I'm enjoying the temps in the low/mid 90's the last couple days and for the next few days.  TBH, its funny saying this, but when the local mets here talk about a "Cool" down of 5 degrees I used to laugh at it, but you can definitely feel the difference...albeit minimal.  As I spend more time out here, I get acclimated to the weather and I'm getting used to the warmth.  TBH, I'm yearning for those nice cool, crisp Autumn mornings.

Meantime, back at home, ORD topped out at a chilly 66F which are OCT level temps.  I'm sure many are ready for the sun to return as they have been stuck in some gloomy, cloudy days.  

 

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Over the past several runs, the EPS is starting to hone in on a more sustained "flip" in the N.A. pattern that should usher in a cooler and refreshing airmass.  All the models are starting to spike the +PNA which is a clue that a more amplified North American 500mb pattern will develop.

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The Euro Control seeing a Big Time cool down...fits with the idea that SEP will be a tale of two seasons...

 

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56 minutes ago, Tom said:

Out in the desert, I'm enjoying the temps in the low/mid 90's the last couple days and for the next few days.  TBH, its funny saying this, but when the local mets here talk about a "Cool" down of 5 degrees I used to laugh at it, but you can definitely feel the difference...albeit minimal.  As I spend more time out here, I get acclimated to the weather and I'm getting used to the warmth.  TBH, I'm yearning for those nice cool, crisp Autumn mornings.

Meantime, back at home, ORD topped out at a chilly 66F which are OCT level temps.  I'm sure many are ready for the sun to return as they have been stuck in some gloomy, cloudy days.  

 

When do you return to Chi-town?

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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

When do you return to Chi-town?

I think towards the end of the month as I have some business to finish out here and then I'll go back home.  How is it like living up in the TC area?  I may be planning a trip up there to visit an old friend of mine and stay for a couple weeks.

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Yesterday was a rather cool day with the official H/L of 66/52 there was a trace of rain fall and 0% of possible sunshine was reported (the sun did come out here for a few minutes) The overnight low both here in MBY and officially at GRR was 55 and that is the current temperature. For today the average H/L  is now down to 75/54. The record high for today of 95 was set in 1939 and again in 1952. The record low of 35 was set in 1975. Today should be the last of the cool days for a while and we should see highs back into the upper 70’s to low 80’s for the rest of this week.

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

As I spend more time out here, I get acclimated to the weather and I'm getting used to the warmth. 

I spent a long period of time in south Florida and I also got used to the hot and humid temperatures. I was down there for most of the summer of 2002 and on the way back home it was in the low 90's at Atlanta but when I stepped out of the car it did not feel hot at all. 

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Its cloudy and coolish w temps at 52Fatm. That stubborn upper level low is a very slow mover. Looking forward to the big warm-up b4 temps really drop for good as Autumn settles in.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I think towards the end of the month as I have some business to finish out here and then I'll go back home.  How is it like living up in the TC area?  I may be planning a trip up there to visit an old friend of mine and stay for a couple weeks.

I'm in IA most of this week. I'm back and forth almost every week due to work and band business. But it's not bad, only a 3hr drive. So I kind of have 2 homes. We're just north of St Paul. It's a nice area up there. Looking forward to winter up there. 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I love these cool mornings, with the low humidity temps really drop at night.  Oh and here it is the first fantasy land GFS snow event lol

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I hadn't seen that yet but I came here to mention my grids post 21st for both IA and MN homes have me down into the upper 60s for highs. Could we actually have some real fall weather just time for fall equinox?

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40 minutes ago, james1976 said:

I hadn't seen that yet but I came here to mention my grids post 21st for both IA and MN homes have me down into the upper 60s for highs. Could we actually have some real fall weather just time for fall equinox?

I hope so.  I want some 60s/40s in the forecast. 

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VERY DRY AND VERY WARM IN KC! the landscape looks tired and worn out...parts of the city are well below average on moisture since June 1st....some close to 8 inches below. The half inch on Saturday afternoon and evening dried up Sunday afternoon. Didn't help at all.

GFS is on fire for the next few weeks. Very little rain if any   Lets see if that can change.

Hopefully the heat out in California takes a break as the renewable energy can't keep up. 

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9 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

VERY DRY AND VERY WARM IN KC! the landscape looks tired and worn out...parts of the city are well below average on moisture since June 1st....some close to 8 inches below. The half inch on Saturday afternoon and evening dried up Sunday afternoon. Didn't help at all.

GFS is on fire for the next few weeks. Very little rain if any   Lets see if that can change.

Hopefully the heat out in California takes a break as the renewable energy can't keep up. 

Yup GFS cools down some next week up here but right back to summer week 2. 

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6 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

VERY DRY AND VERY WARM IN KC! the landscape looks tired and worn out...parts of the city are well below average on moisture since June 1st....some close to 8 inches below. The half inch on Saturday afternoon and evening dried up Sunday afternoon. Didn't help at all.

GFS is on fire for the next few weeks. Very little rain if any   Lets see if that can change.

Hopefully the heat out in California takes a break as the renewable energy can't keep up. 

That’s funny as they had no rolling blackouts, yet Texas can’t stop them.🤷‍♂️

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The lows this weekend are near are normal highs

Tonight
Clear, with a low around 62. East southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. 
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 90. South wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. 
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. 
Thursday
Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. 
Thursday Night
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Saturday
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 67.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 90.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 73.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 92.
Monday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

 

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Decent thunderstorm here yesterday.

Other than that, the September doldrums continue, with highs pushing into the upper 80s/low 90s again next week. No rainfall in sight.

Hate this time of year. With a passion. Snoozefest.

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8 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

That’s funny as they had no rolling blackouts, yet Texas can’t stop them.🤷‍♂️

Actually I haven’t seen a blackout or brown out since the big Deep Freeze.  
They asked us once to turn up thermostats with a run of 100+ days but thankfully it did not happen.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 73/52 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 42% of the time. The overnight low both here in MBY and at GRR was 54 At the current time it is clear and 59 here in MBY while it is a warmer 62 at GRR. For today the average H/L remains at 75/54 the record high of 95 was set in 1939 and the record low of 31 was set way back in 1899 it got down to 33 in 1975. The next week looks to be dry and very warm.

 

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