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September 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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In other news, Nome, AK and the western shores of Alaska are going to get hit by a tremendous Bearing Sea storm!  For those of you who watch the TV show Bearing Sea Gold...well, they are going to get a direct hit by this storm.  I can't imagine witnessing hours upon hours of 70MPH+ winds and sea levels rise 8-11 Feet!  Unfortunately, this will be devastating for the harbor and along the coastal shores where they do their gold mining.  This is a worst case scenario due to the SW flow, High Tide, High Waves and the geography of the Bay.  Prayers to all those who are in the storms path.

 

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Coastal Flood Warning

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
315 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

AKZ211-171500-
/O.CON.PAFG.CF.W.0001.220917T0200Z-220918T1800Z/
Southern Seward Peninsula Coast-
315 PM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM AKDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Significant coastal flooding expected.

* WHERE...Southern Seward Peninsula Coast.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Numerous roads may be closed. Low lying property
  including homes, businesses, the airport, and other critical
  infrastructure will be inundated. Some shoreline erosion will
  occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...In Nome, water levels will be 8 to 11 feet
  above the normal high tide line. Areas near the mouth of the
  Snake River and upstream, will also be inundated as water backs
  up in the river due to the storm surge. The Belmont Subdivision
  will be significantly impacted by flooding, as will the Airport
  Terminal, and some areas of the runway may be flooded. Streets
  on the west side of town may also be flooded. The Nome/Council
  Road may be impassable as waves run well up the beach. In
  Golovin, water levels will be 9 to 13 feet above the normal
  high tide line. Golovin will see significant inundation around
  the old runway and water may flood around the fuel storage area
  and areas lower than the school. Highest water levels are
  expected Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

 

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The number of daylight hours today is the same as it is on March 25th. The daylight hours will continue to get shorter as we slide deeper into fall and up to the start of winter. Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 80/58 there was no rain fall and the there was 62% of possible sunshine. The official overnight low so far looks to have been 61 at GRR and here in MBY the low so far has been 62. For today the average H/L remains at 74/53 the record high of 92 was set in 1906 and the record low of 37 was set in 1902 and 1959. We look to remain warm until next Thursday with highs around 80 and lows mostly in the 60’s

 

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35 minutes ago, Tom said:

In other news, Nome, AK and the western shores of Alaska are going to get hit by a tremendous Bearing Sea storm! 

That is going to be quite the storm. At the current time Nome has light rain falling with temperature of 49 and a south wind of 35MPH with guest of 45MPH. But that is down from 2 hours ago when there were gust as high as 55MPH

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The thought just came to me about the LRC and how the current Bearing Sea Storm could potentially correlate to the opening week of OCT.  Using the Bearing Sea Rule (BSR) as guidance, if we extrapolate 17-21 days it would line up with Oct 3rd-7th and that is usually the 1st days of the new LRC cycle in the mid latitudes.  Wouldn't that be a wild way to open up the month of OCT? 

My 1st guess at this range would be a hard cutter up into the Upper MW/GL's region given the track this storm is taking up into the Bearing Sea, however, IF there is sufficient high lat blocking it could very well target the central Plains.  This storm certainly has caught my attn now that we are getting closer to OCT and knowing that the new LRC pattern typically sets up earlier in the higher latitudes.  It has all the traits of being a colder storm with a wintry side to it.  I'm sure this will benefit the Rockies with a major snowstorm.

 

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Now this is getting interesting....if the blocking up north locks and crashes a second major trough late month, this could very well usher in Frost/Freezes for our Northern members....0z Euro Control suggesting some wee bit chilly temps.

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0z EPS showcasing widespread cool to rule post 21st....

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For the model to "see" hints of snow into the panhandle of NE into Upper MW this far out, it must have some chilly members in the ensemble.  Meanwhile, our friends up north in Canada start to fill up with Snow....

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Now this is getting interesting....if the blocking up north locks and crashes a second major trough late month, this could very well usher in Frost/Freezes for our Northern members....0z Euro Control suggesting some wee bit chilly temps.

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0z EPS showcasing widespread cool to rule post 21st....

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For the model to "see" hints of snow into the panhandle of NE into Upper MW this far out, it must have some chilly members in the ensemble.  Meanwhile, our friends up north in Canada start to fill up with Snow....

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I believe this to be the front that ends summer, check out the 24hr temp change.

0d40d5_811764a9f36d42db9903eed3edf923ea~mv2.png

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Comment from MSP AFD regarding the cooler air late next week. Possible upper 30s for lows.

Other than rain chances, temperatures are the main topic for the week
with above normal highs in the low to mid 80s for Monday and Tuesday
dropping back into the 70s by Wednesday and 60s to end the week. Our
coldest low for the week looks to be Friday morning in the upper 30s
in central Minnesota down to the low 40s in the south. We aren`t
quite in the range where frost starts becoming possible, however we
are not that far off as climatologically St. Cloud has their first
frost by September 27th, Eau Claire by September 30th, and the Twin
Cities by October 11th.
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North Texas will experience it usual warm up this coming week. We’ll reach 96-97 by the weekend. The following week however will offer a drop into the upper 80’s.  
September is always a month of variable temps as the fronts up north tempt us into thinking it might just be Fall! 

Were at 91* from a High of 94.  48% Humidity.  The lower humidity makes it tolerable.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Very warm and windy today as my high temperature toped out at 93.  Record heat with temps in the mid to upper 90s possible starting tomorrow through Tuesday or Wednesday depending on the timing of the cold front. 

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Things are also getting very dry here as precip the last 30 days is well below normal.

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Southern Iowa has had quite the day. Not many like this for past 10 months.  Round  after Round  of thunder. I only have .37 but  more still on the way.  In lucas  county near chariton  i have game camera.  And it literally  hailed over 15 minutes! Heres the video.

 

 

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 83/61 there was no rain fall before midnight. Yesterday had 62% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY I recorded 0.26” of rain fall overnight and had a low of 66. And that 66 is the current temperature. For today the average H/L is now down to 73/52. The average H/L has now dropped more than 10° from the summer high point. The record high of 94 was set in 1906 and the record low of 35 was set in 1973. Today thru Tuesday look to stay warm before a cool down to very early fall like temperatures by Thursday.

 

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As I flipped through the models today, it struck me when I saw the 0z GEFS 500mb map showing Hurricane Fiona tracking up the western Atlantic into south of Greenland.  Then, the Fujiwhara Effect takes place...Iirc, this was part of the LRC pattern that developed WAY back in early OCT last year??  I don't have my notepad with me but I recall commenting on this pattern last year when this was happening.

@Clinton, do you remember this pattern and does it match up with the LRC cycle?  I remember vividly watching a video on year from Gary Lezak, commenting on how a hurricane in the ATL was in the process of merging in with new LRC and old LRC during the later part of SEP.  This is prob whats happening now.

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You can feel the coolness in the air this morning...Fall is SLOWLY approaching here in the desert...local station showing 71F which is a few degrees BN for the date.  #SignsOfAutumn

Screen Shot 2022-09-18 at 4.32.44 AM.png

 

Up north, it's a bit more chillier near Flagstaff....some stations reporting low/mid 30's!

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33 minutes ago, Tom said:

As I flipped through the models today, it struck me when I saw the 0z GEFS 500mb map showing Hurricane Fiona tracking up the western Atlantic into south of Greenland.  Then, the Fujiwhara Effect takes place...Iirc, this was part of the LRC pattern that developed WAY back in early OCT last year??  I don't have my notepad with me but I recall commenting on this pattern last year when this was happening.

@Clinton, do you remember this pattern and does it match up with the LRC cycle?  I remember vividly watching a video on year from Gary Lezak, commenting on how a hurricane in the ATL was in the process of merging in with new LRC and old LRC during the later part of SEP.  This is prob whats happening now.

image.gif

Gary actually did a blog on this part of the pattern a few days ago and showed how it lined up with last Nov.  He and his team did a pretty good job predicting Fiona.  I think we are only about a week away from seeing the models start to pick up on a whole new pattern.  Exciting times for me as I'm ready to get a glimpse of a new pattern.

A Potential Tropical Storm In Ten Days

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomow, I just saw the radar loop and S IA got pounded!  Hope you were able to cash in...if so, what a way to flip the script!  Not to mention, but now your area is in an ENHANCED RISK for Severe Wx today.

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Biggest rain in 11 months!!!  3 full inches while i slept!

3.54" weekend tota so far! And its not over! The LLJ kicked in especially  about 9 pm I could  see storms were gonna train along  rte 34  from Council bluffs to Burlington.  Ive seen 4 horrid SE Iowa droughts end in September  with overnight  LLJ events! Awesome!

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1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Biggest rain in 11 months!!!  3 full inches while i slept!

3.54" weekend tota so far! And its not over! The LLJ kicked in especially  about 9 pm I could  see storms were gonna train along  rte 34  from Council bluffs to Burlington.  Ive seen 4 horrid SE Iowa droughts end in September  with overnight  LLJ events! Awesome!

Boom!  Hope this is the beginning of a much better pattern and your business operation will pick up.

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Hope you’re right Tom!  
 

Texas is in the throes of its oft experienced early Fall warmup.  We’re accustomed to it but frankly cooler temps would be preferred.  

BC93BB95-BE2B-4F2F-B065-D96354F84D89.jpeg

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Only 0.10" of rain here, a total bust.  Much, if not all, of the storms later today should be south as well.  I'm sick of this crap.  The rest of the month looks pretty dry, too.  🤬

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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MSP AFD says Tuesday may be the last day in the 80s up here.

Temperatures look to generally be in the 40s and
50s for lows and 60s for highs through the rest of the week after
Tuesday. Our next best chance for precipitation after Tuesday looks
to be late Friday into Saturday along a more potent looking
shortwave, however being several days away at this point confidence
is low in the timing and location for now. Enjoy what may be our last
80s of the year on Tuesday!
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Fall-like temps on the way next week. Highs generally in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 40s and a few upper 30s in the colder spots, not outta the question. I'm thinking my area will range between 38-43F for overnite low temps.

 

@jaster220Autumn knocking at our doorstep bud. Get those light jackets ready.

Btw: Hope ya had a great summer!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Fiona will become a strong Cat2 hurricane eventually, but remain over open waters. Believe it or not, it will however affect my area. Well, not hurricane conditions of course, but, it will tend to slow down weather systems a bit.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I picked up .31 inches from that little cell in about 10 minutes.  Currently 76 degrees I'm hoping these little cells will keep temps below the record high of 95.  I probably won't be so lucky tomorrow. 

Are ya ready for Autumn-Like weather?? 😀

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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5 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Only 0.10" of rain here, a total bust.  Much, if not all, of the storms later today should be south as well.  I'm sick of this crap.  The rest of the month looks pretty dry, too.  🤬

Curious how  much rain youve had this summer compared  to me? OTM had a 16 or 17  inch yearly  deficit  until last nite. Sept my first  above avg precip  month since march.

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I was expecting nothing tonight, but a couple decent storms popped and dumped 0.70" of rain in my yard.  It's nice to see lightning and hear thunder again, plus heavy rain pounding the roof.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Curious how  much rain youve had this summer compared  to me? OTM had a 16 or 17  inch yearly  deficit  until last nite. Sept my first  above avg precip  month since march.

I'm sure I've had more rain than you this summer.

June: 4.92"

July: 2.88"

August: 3.10"

September: 1.54"

It's the last several weeks that have been frustrating as every rain event has either underperformed or been a dud.  Tonight's rain helps.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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29 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm sure I've had more rain than you this summer.

June: 4.92"

July: 2.88"

August: 3.10"

September: 1.54"

It's the last several weeks that have been frustrating as every rain event has either underperformed or been a dud.  Tonight's rain helps.

I had about

May 2.82

June 2.70

July 2.80 (almost all first 5 days)

August 2.03

September  4.87 past 8 days

 

I didn't  melt snow and ice. But i would say about 22.75 inches for the year. March and September  only wet months. Ive had  slightly  more than OTM as far as I know.

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