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September 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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My area back home got hit yet again by a severe warned cell but no report of strong winds or hail.  Just some quick heavy rains that fell (0.49")...you could say it was more or less of the garden variety.  The long awaited Autumn CF will be making its way through Chi later this afternoon.  Could the GL's see their first "Water Spouts" of the season?  It looks like the shores of W MI are primed to see these on Thursday and the "Yoopers" up north are going to see Lake Effect rain showers today!

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Flood Watch's hoisted out here in the SW...the weather action is keeping me on my toe's as there is a lot going on across our Sub.  0z UKIE is very similar to the Euro and brings heavy rains into KC region.

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Meantime, the models differ on the intensity of the next major trough for the GL's and East Coast next week.  The Euro has been advertising a significant cool down for the past few runs.  Frosty nights???  My money is on the Euro as it is seeing the Blocking a lot better with the Cool Canadian HP and where the remnants of Major Hurricane Fiona track up near Greenland allow the expansive HP to hover over the GL's region for a few days.  The GFS shifts this HP a lot faster to the East.

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Looking forward to the seasons first chill. Highs in the upper 50s for Thursday to maaaaaybe cracking 60F. It stays BN throughout the extended, if not till the rest of September.

 

Today all eyes on this potent CF approaching. Might get mighty interesting in the PM hour. Fingers cross for some action.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 75/54 at airport there was 0.28” of rain fall and 18% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY I had 0.19” of rain fall is two storms. The 2nd one had some of the most intense thunder and lightning that has occurred here at my house in a long time. For today the average H/L remains 72/51 the record high of 95 was recorded in 2017 and the record low of 32 was in 1962. Today looks to be the last real warm day for a while as temperature look to stay in the 60’s for highs and lows in the 40’s to near 50 for the next several days.

 

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The heat was quite impressive here in KC the last 3 days, in a time of year where the weather should turn wetter and cooler to help the recovery of the turf and landscape, it is doing the total opposite. Irrigation systems are working overtime...not keeping up. Just too much dry weather.

Tonight's rains for KC, well, the 06z data really backed off on totals! Doesn't look like much relief here in KC other than a few days of cooler weather and then another heatwave looks likely starting around Tuesday next week, more 90's in store and maybe for a week or longer.

It's official, we're in a mini drought in KC. 

 

The new LRC is known to set-up around Oct. 5th, at the current time, the GFS has the strongest cold front of the fall showing up and a storm potential, but, that's 384 hours out.......

Let's hope for stormy LRC with lots of blocking!!!!!!!

THINK COLD/SNOWY/EARLY WINTER

Last year KC had a decent winter with regards to storms and snowfall totals, logging (7) accumulating snows, not bad at all. BUT, overall it was a very warm winter. We never held the snow on the ground longer than 4 days as we had massive warm-ups following each snow event. I want snow in DEC. and it never melting until mid-March. That's not too much to ask. 

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61 degrees with a northeast wind gusting to 25 MPH feels amazing.  Rain to move in after lunch.  Temps going nowhere, and will only be around 50 for a high on Thursday.  Yesterday afternoon at our Junior High football games was some of the warmest weather I can ever remember for any football game I've ever coached or attended.  It was 98 degrees with no wind at 6 PM with a dew in the mid 60's.  Just brutal.  Hopefully it will become a distant memory.

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Hopefully yesterday was both the final 90+ and 100+ degree day. 103 was crazy for September 20th. Though even if we don't for the rest of the month, 2022 definitely seems like a 90s in October type of year. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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94 headed for 98 officially.  
I bet we hit 100 !! (Unofficially at least!)

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Cold front on track to arrive tomorrow midday. Could see downsloping gusts approaching 40mph by sunset.

If all goes well, today will be the last day in the upper 80s this year. Been a long time since the summer pattern has terminated in September..usually it lasts well into October. Hopefully it’s for real this time.

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First 30's for overnite lows for my area tomorrow nite"

NOAA:

Big shift in the longwave pattern as a deep 500mb upper low, below
540 dam, sets up just east of Hudson Bay with southern extension
reaching the Great Lakes. Notable thermal trough will be surging
southward tonight with 850mb temperatures falling to low single
digits by 12Z Thursday morning and around 0C by 00Z Friday. A large
area of surface high pressure sliding over the Midwest will also
support the northern flow tomorrow helping the cold air advection.
Dewpoints have already fallen into the 50s across northern lower
this afternoon and some 40s over the U.P. and WI. All in all this
will produce some the coldest max temperatures we`ve seen in some
time. Low temperatures Thursday night will bottom out into the upper 30s 
for most of the area as the high pressure centers itself over lower MI.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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9 hours ago, Andie said:

94 headed for 98 officially.  
I bet we hit 100 !! (Unofficially at least!)

I believe we hit 99. Felt hotter. More like a July 100! 
 

Dropping over the weekend. Mon-Thur 86/87.  Can’t wait! 👍

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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39 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Now this is more like it!

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Gotta tell ya, I'm a bit Jelly of the weather your all experiencing and enjoying for the 1st day of Autumn.  This is the real deal Autumn CF that many on this Sub have been waiting for a very long time.  Glad it came in a timely manner. 

Back home...man, that must feel nice with a stiff NW Breeze...  

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Meantime, out here in the desert I won't complain as PHX had a high of ONLY 88F!  That was under the forecast high in the low 90's...I'll take it...Sky Harbor only managed to squeeze out a minimal 0.06" of precip.  The western valley got hit hard.  I had a few showers that dropped about 1/10 of an inch.  There is a small chance that we get some spotty storms through SAT but after its dry and HOT.  This will likely be the last precip PHX records for the 2022 Monsoon season that ends later this month.

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Yesterday I could the line of thunderstorms build just to my northeast That was a good show to see as the clouds just built up and up and became dark. There was hail and heavy rain just to my north and east. Here in MBY I only received 0.01” of rain fall but it was enough to get the driveway wet.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 81/61 there was no rain fall reported at GRR and 56% of possible sunshine. Yesterday looks to be the last warm for a week or more. The overnight low so far at GRR has been 52 here in MBY it has just fallen to 51 with clear skies. There are some nice lake effect rain bands setting up in the Traverse City area and in central UP.  For today the average H/L remains 72/51 the record high of 95 was set in 2017 and the record low of 33 was set in 1976. That 95 was the second day of 6 days in a row of 90 or better in September of 2017.

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Hey, that’s nice.  Year round that’ll be a haven!!  
 

We’re going to drop into the 80’s Mon-Fri next week. We really deserve this break.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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