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September 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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DFw is at 84 currently but on its way to 75.  
That’s really nice for us. I’ll take 2nd helpings too!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Fair enough.  My mistake.  I jumped to conclusions based on some of the other discussion on here from time to time.  What kind of crazy person is hoping for 90s in Chicago in September?  Sheesh.  My mom grew up in Texas, and remembers living there before A/C was a thing. (Can you imagine?)  She actually loves warm and hot weather now that she gets less of it in the Midwest.  But even she's ready for it to cool off.  

I understand your moms love of heat but despite having nothing but a “swamp cooler” as a very young child I’m a refrigerated fan!   Totally spoiled. 
Like her, I’m so ready for cooler temps.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Some more videos of the views near Zakopane, Poland…cable car ride up to the top takes about 10 min.  Enjoy the  spectacular views of the freshly fallen snow.  It was 30F at the summit (1985 meters).  The border of Slovakia 🇸🇰  and Poland 🇵🇱 run right through the summit.

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Fair enough.  My mistake.  I jumped to conclusions based on some of the other discussion on here from time to time.  What kind of crazy person is hoping for 90s in Chicago in September?  Sheesh.  My mom grew up in Texas, and remembers living there before A/C was a thing. (Can you imagine?)  She actually loves warm and hot weather now that she gets less of it in the Midwest.  But even she's ready for it to cool off.  

This x100!  All good bud, btw, I can't imagine living back then without A/C...how the heck could they sleep in that humidity?  Crazy to imagine how life was back then.  Some of my family in Poland don't have any A/C at all.  They pretty much could live off the grid if they wanted to as they raise their own animals and farm their own food.  

In other news, take a look up in the sky tomorrow morning...I gotta tell ya, I've been looking up at Jupiter the past 2 weeks and it has been steadily gaining in size out here.  Pretty cool to see.  We are all ONE.   


https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/09/24/jupiter-approach-opposition-brightest/

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Calling for a high of 96 today. We’re tired of this.   But Monday is forecasting a temp of 88.  No significant rain as yet.  

That’s cool for us by comparison but I’d like to see it lower.  Unfortunately, North Texas has had Halloweens in the 90’s for Highs.  We’ll see what we get this year.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Is it just me or is there just soo much going on in the wx dept its hard to keep up.  Boy, the more I sit here and analyze the pattern and see what is about to happen to close out SEP is pretty freakin' awesome.  This trough means business for the GL's..."Lakes on Fire"... can you imagine what this would do in the Winter???

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It's been an interesting past couple of days monitoring the models trends where Hurricane Ian may track.  That massive Blocking HP is really wrecking havoc in the modeling.  I'm really excited to see where this blocking pattern will lead us as we enter into OCT and the following months.

0z Euro...what warmth???  The "Pool of Cool" shall rule for a lot of you guys...Enjoy!

image.gif

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The 0z EPS see's no end in sight for the amount of high lat blocking...the trough setting up off the west coast is looking might fine to me in terms of location...then you have the lower heights across the southern/eastern US as we open up OCT.  Signs of a new pattern setting up in the Day 10-15...sweet pattern is in the cards as storms will ride underneath the Blocks.

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Not to get to far ahead of myself, but when I see nearly every single model agree that the EPO turns (-) as we open OCT, you gotta believe the warm SST's in the NE PAC are being a factor.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Notice the little ripples in the graph below...I think that's an indication of the models signaling a storm train developing over the N PAC into Alaska and ride into the B.C. region.  It's a non stop parade of systems as the La Nina pattern fires up big time.  I believe eventually we will see these storms target farther south into Cali and bless the region with Mtn Snows and plenty of moisture.

image.png

 

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One can tell we have changed seasons, as after a sunny late summer and start of September yesterday was one of the first of what will be many days of zero sunshine. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 61/51 there was a reported 0.03” of rain fall and 0% of possible sunshine. The overnight low was a mild 57 and at the current time it is 58 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is now down to 70/50 the record high of 91 was set in 2017 and the record low of 29 was set in 1947. Today looks to have a chance of some cold weather storms we shall see.

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It gets very cool here imby next week w/ high only in the 50s and lows in the 30s. A very slow gradual warming trend by the upcoming weekend though. Also ton of sunshine developing by midweek, once the frontal boundary moves on by.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

The 0z EPS see's no end in sight for the amount of high lat blocking...the trough setting up off the west coast is looking might fine to me in terms of location...then you have the lower heights across the southern/eastern US as we open up OCT.  Signs of a new pattern setting up in the Day 10-15...sweet pattern is in the cards as storms will ride underneath the Blocks.

image.gif

 

Not to get to far ahead of myself, but when I see nearly every single model agree that the EPO turns (-) as we open OCT, you gotta believe the warm SST's in the NE PAC are being a factor.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Notice the little ripples in the graph below...I think that's an indication of the models signaling a storm train developing over the N PAC into Alaska and ride into the B.C. region.  It's a non stop parade of systems as the La Nina pattern fires up big time.  I believe eventually we will see these storms target farther south into Cali and bless the region with Mtn Snows and plenty of moisture.

image.png

 

Its beautiful to see that 3 eyed monster in the Pac.

This wx pattern is pretty awesome after the effects of this major ridge dissipate. 

Blocking isn't even really "flexing" back yet in the NE.

Will be looking forward to the next 3 weeks.

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We have some rain in the area.  
84* and our minor front has arrived. Low tonight 65!
Not exciting but it’s rain and quite a change. 

24378C6A-909D-439A-BE7A-2F4955CF6FD6.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I anticipate Frost and Freeze advisories to be hoisted later this afternoon for parts of IA/MN/WI..maybe NW IL???

image.gif

 

If parts of the area across the NW burbs do indeed see Frost it will be about 2 weeks early.  Gosh, how many years has it been since we've seen Frost or Freeze's early in the season?  Maybe our stat man @westMJimcan dig that up.

image.png

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LOT's discussion for the risk of Lake Effect rain showers is neat to read for tomorrow/Wed...

Quote
Most of the "interesting" weather is confined to Tuesday evening
into Wednesday morning. 850 mb temps plunging to near or just over
0 Celsius over the lake will continue to yield very favorable lake
induced thermodynamics, with equilibrium levels pushing 20-25 kft
and lake induced CAPE approaching 1,000 J/kg. The incoming surface
high is expected to cause the lake enhanced low-level convergence
axis to shift farther southwest. Big picture wise, this setup
favored bumping up PoPs to high chance closer to the lake in
northwest Indiana. However, as is common at this vantage point
from a lake effect set-up, there is pretty large variability in
the guidance in exactly where the convergence banding sets up and
the residence time. Should the band(s) become quasi-stationary for
a time, then certainly plausible to have moderate to even heavy
downpours given the favorable thermodynamics. Also have slight
chance thunder mention to pair with the lake induced instability.

 

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The 0z EPS 500mb pattern is a thing of beauty as we open OCT....there are members on here that know what I'm talking about...

2.gif

 

Meanwhile, it was a bit toasty here yesterday as PHX topped out at 104F (Normal 97F) but the DP's in the 40's made it feel more comfortable by the pool.  We could top that today hitting 105F...then we begin the slow step down into the 90's later in the week.

 

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We could see a low of of 53 Thursday morning.  Now that’s quite a switch.  
That’s a 43* difference from the high this weekend.  
Now if we could negotiate some rain, we’ll be thrilled!

Anyone up for it?

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 63/51 at GRR there was a reported 0.44” of rain fall and 9% of possible sunshine. Here in MBY I recorded 0.27” of rain fall. The overnight low both here and at GRR was 50 and at this time it is clear and 51 here at my house. For today the average H/L is now down to 70/49 the record high of 92 was set in 2017 (it was the last day of that late September heat wave) and the record low of 30 was set in 1947.  The next several days continue to look cool with highs may stay under 60 with lows in the 40’s

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Gosh, how many years has it been since we've seen Frost or Freeze's early in the season?  Maybe 

The last time there was a wide spread lows of 32 or less in much of the area was in September of 1995 with lows of 32 or less at Grand Rapids, Milwaukee, Chicago, Rockford IL and many other areas. Here in Grand Rapids the last time it got down to 30 in September was on September 30th 1993 the last time it was below 30 in September was September 28th 1991 with a low of 27. I hope this gives you some idea. But for may it was in September of 1995 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

First time my temps dipped into the 40s this season.  I hit a low of 48 on my way to 74 today, perfect weather. 

I read in an article this morning that an early disruption event is starting for the PV and w/ pressure anomalies setting the stage for something bigger later in Winter. I'll try to find the article and post it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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7 hours ago, westMJim said:

The last time there was a wide spread lows of 32 or less in much of the area was in September of 1995 with lows of 32 or less at Grand Rapids, Milwaukee, Chicago, Rockford IL and many other areas. Here in Grand Rapids the last time it got down to 30 in September was on September 30th 1993 the last time it was below 30 in September was September 28th 1991 with a low of 27. I hope this gives you some idea. But for may it was in September of 1995 

The last sentence should have read But for many it was September 1995. 

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3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Crazy to see the sharp gradient of September temperature anomalies across the area.

Omaha Eppley: +2.2

Valley NWS: +3.6

Lincoln: +4.5

Norfolk: +5.3

 

Lincoln's been even drier than Omaha, which probably further boosts afternoon temps. There's been a lot of overperforming days this month.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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We had a high of 88 today and yet I was outside and picked today of all days to overheat. Nearly passed out. B/P shot through the roof.  
It WAS a great way to get out of the dishes but a little hard on the “equipment”!   
All is well now.  But so weird.  😳

Gorgeous morning.   Repeat tomorrow!

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday official high of 57 was the coldest high at Grand Rapids since May 18th the low for the day was 49.  There was 0.02” of rain fall (I had 0.03”) and just 9% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY so far has been the current temperature of 44 The official low so far at GRR is 46. The average H/L for today is 69/49 the record high for today is 86 set in 1946 and the record low was 29 set in 1989. The rest of this week looks cool but warming up by the weekend.

 

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LOT has strong wording in their write up for the Lake Effect rain potential...one can only imagine what this would produce during the Winter months...Look for those Waterspouts on the lake!

Quote
Upper level pattern continues to be dominated by a deep, broad
trough over eastern NOAM. A strong jet streak and associated mid-
level short wave were evident within northwest flow aloft early
this morning across the upper Midwest, and this disturbance will
continue to dig south-southeast across the western Great Lakes
region through tonight. A cold front accompanying this wave will
bring a reinforcing push of cooler air by this evening,
maintaining below- average temperatures and breezy north-northeast
winds across the area through Wednesday. Some patchy cloud cover
can be expected today, and though perhaps an isolated sprinkle or
two can`t be completely ruled out, thermodynamic profiles across
most of the forecast area depict moist layers generally too
shallow for any organized shower threat. This will change this
evening behind the aforementioned cold front, as low level wind
fields turn northerly and allow the convergent wind axis currently
over eastern Lake Michigan to shift west. This will shift the
better lake-effect shower and thunderstorm potential from
southwestern MI/northeast IN into northwest IN tonight, and
eventually into the IL/IN border region (including the
south/southeast Chicago metro area) by Wednesday morning. Colder
air aloft (0C at 850 mb per current guidance) and air temps over
the lake in the upper 50s/around 60 should support 400-600 J/kg of
lake-induced CAPE tonight into early Wednesday, which should
result in convective showers and a few thunderstorms as well as as
chance of waterspouts.

 

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"Trends are your Friends"....so they say...well, it appears that the GEFS are following the EPS trends as we approach the start of the new LRC pattern in OCT...no longer is the trough hugging NW NAMER and the Ridge is firing up (-EPO) signal shining bright.  The LR clues from over a week ago are coming together.  

2.gif

 

Now, let's see if there is a storm system that can develop around the 10/6 period....looking out farther, using the BSR as guidance, I am expecting more of the same as we see troughs entering the west coast/PAC NW into the middle part of OCT.

The storm below tracking in a SW/NE fashion could be an interesting "cutter" during the 10/17-10/21 period and this may develop into a Major trough over the central SUB.  I got my eye on an active period during the middle part of OCT.  

 

1.gif

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It is a very cool day today. Currently at 55F under mostly cloudy skies.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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