September 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Phil]

I hate September. Most boring weather of the year with rapid loss of daylight.

The entire August 15 - October 15 period is by far my least favorite weather wise. Not much to look forward to until stronger fronts/dynamics arrive later in October.

[james1976]

I do like the look of the system coming up this weekend and the strong cold front. MPX mentioning how it's a sign of Autumn with how the system is setting up on models. I agree though...September has become quite boring and warm the last few years.

[james1976]

1 minute ago, someweatherdude said:

So much for the predictions of a fall-like second half of September . . . 

God I'm tired of above normal temps all the time. 

[Hawkeye]

Models have shifted the heaviest weekend rain into Wisconsin as the upper low now does not dig as far south and west.  Fortunately, models do show a solid band of rain moving through eastern Iowa late Saturday, so I could still get up to an inch.

[hawkstwelve]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

So much for the predictions of a fall-like second half of September . . . 

Keep in mind, those are GFS temp outputs which are not known for being accurate especially at 300+ hours.

As an example of it's temperature struggles, here's the GFS projected temp for FSD vs. what the actual temp was...

Tuesday: 95 vs. 88

Wednesday: 99 vs. 89

Today: Forecasted to hit 105 but currently only sitting at 91

A ten degree difference is huge as it would effectively change those hot and stuffy mid 90s to a much more manageable mid 80s. Of course it doesn't always work out to be a 10 degree difference, but the point stands.

Also important to keep ensembles in mind. Here's last night's EPS 500mb height frame for that same time. Certainly doesn't scream widespread 95+ degree temps to me. The uncertainty is also present in the 850mb temp spaghetti graph below which shows a fair amount of spread post-15th or so and especially around the timeframe you captured in your frames.

All this to say - while the trough this weekend is a little more fleeting than initially anticipated, I wouldn't write off the second half of September just yet.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Keep in mind, those are GFS temp outputs which are not known for being accurate especially at 300+ hours.

As an example of it's temperature struggles, here's the GFS projected temp for FSD vs. what the actual temp was...

Tuesday: 95 vs. 88

Wednesday: 99 vs. 89

Today: Forecasted to hit 105 but currently only sitting at 91

A ten degree difference is huge as it would effectively change those hot and stuffy mid 90s to a much more manageable mid 80s. Of course it doesn't always work out to be a 10 degree difference, but the point stands.

Also important to keep ensembles in mind. Here's last night's EPS frame for that same time. Certainly doesn't scream widespread 95+ degree temps to me. The uncertainty is also present in the 850mb temp spaghetti graph below which shows a fair amount of spread post-15th or so and especially around the timeframe you captured in your frames.

All this to say - while the trough this weekend is a little more fleeting than initially anticipated, I wouldn't write off the second half of September just yet.

That pattern on the EPS would be cool for you but warm here. Lots of SW flow verbatim.

[CentralNebWeather]

Football practice today, 95 with a dew of 61 and south winds gusting to 25 mph. Didn’t feel too bad. You know it’s been a long, hot summer when 95 is bearable. Potential of 1” of rain Friday night into Saturday. High on Saturday may not reach 60 and a low Saturday night of 42. What a change. Tomorrow only a high of 70 with northeast winds. Friday night football should be cool with the potential of rain late. Hello sweatshirt weather. 

[CentralNebWeather]

This would be beneficial. 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Football practice today, 95 with a dew of 61 and south winds gusting to 25 mph. Didn’t feel too bad. You know it’s been a long, hot summer when 95 is bearable. Potential of 1” of rain Friday night into Saturday. High on Saturday may not reach 60 and a low Saturday night of 42. What a change. Tomorrow only a high of 70 with northeast winds. Friday night football should be cool with the potential of rain late. Hello sweatshirt weather. 

The long awaited "Taste of Autumn"...I bet your gonna feel the chill and welcome it with open arms!  Glad this system appears to share some much needed moisture for a lot of you.

0z EURO/UKIE showing some consistency...

 

[Tom]

The Monsoon has really done some good work on the drought in the 4 corners...

 

As mentioned before, the Mtn's of AZ have almost completely reversed course in terms of the drought, however, the higher terrain of CO/WY  have reversed their drought conditions...(you don't hear that in the news)...hope the eco-anxiety folks take a look deeper into the benefits that nature has delivered across our vast country.  Oh, and yes, my early calls for this region and the intermountain west for Winter is to get pounded with Snow.  Something tells me that nature has beneficial surprises for those who are worried about the water levels.  Natural cycles.

 

 

[Clinton]

38 minutes ago, Tom said:

The long awaited "Taste of Autumn"...I bet your gonna feel the chill and welcome it with open arms!  Glad this system appears to share some much needed moisture for a lot of you.

0z EURO/UKIE showing some consistency...

 

It's good to see some of that rain make it down I to the KC area.  The north side of the city is about 5 to 6 inches below average since June 1st while on the southeast side I'm 1.5 above average since June 1st.

[Tom]

Some of the LR clues in the Strat maps I tend to rely on are signaling an interesting end to Sep and start to OCT.  Ironically, it's the EPS and the Euro Weeklies that are "sniffing" it out as the JMA weeklies and CFSv2 are not on the same page.  It's the NE PAC ridge, the return of the "Warm Blob"...waters have really warmed in this region and I suspect the models to have some issues.  In years past, the Euro has been known to have a bias in this region, but I'm in somewhat of an awe to see that it is the only model right now showing this Ridge pattern across the NE PAC

The blossoming warmth towards the end of the animation in the NE PAC and Alaska tells me to look for ridging end of SEP and opening of OCT...

 

The latest Euro Weeklies "seeing" this???  I strongly believe so....in fact, I'll double down on this LR forecast...for those LRC followers, look at that potential beginning to the month of OCT....Wowza!

 

Even with the known bias of the EPS weeklies running a bit warm, these temp anomalies look real comfy to me...we will more than likely welcome the Autumnal Equinox with cooler temps and active wx...I agree with @hawkstwelve, 2nd half of SEP still has a good potential to "feel" more autumn-like for our Sub.

 

 

 

I'll end the post with this....#ThinkSnow...Blessings from Mother Nature!

[Andie]

Starting out at 69*.  We’ll top out at 90*. 
Humidity a wonderful 38% !  
 

Fall isn’t far away!

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/55. There was no rain fall and 92% of possible sunshine was reported. The overnight low in MBY and at GRR was 57. There is fog reported at GRR while here it is clear and 58 at the current time. For today the average H/L in now down to 77/56 The record high of 95 was reported in 1897 and the record low of 37 was in 1975. 

[Clinton]

The temperatures behind the cold front look amazing.  It will be a nice taste of fall for a few days.

[MIKEKC]

21 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Drought update 9/8

Remember what happened that winter after the drought? I know KC had 30-40 inches of snow, I 'm sure you guys did well to. 

[westMJim]

It has been warm and dry so far this September. Temperatures have been very unform with the mean so far being 69.2 at both Grand Rapids and Lansing. At Holland the mean so far is 69.3 Muskegon has been warmer and their mean is 71.1. All locations are warmer than average so far this month. It has been mostly dry so far with no rain fall reported yet in Muskegon and Holland just 0.03" at Grand Rapids so far Lansing is the wet spot with 0.57" and even that is below average so far. That could change late this weekend as there could be a good amount of rain fall.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Crossing fingers but not holding my breath

[OmahaSnowFan]

Someone should tell Mother Nature/Lake Mead about the cycles as Lake Mead seems to have been waiting for 20+ years.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Someone should tell Mother Nature/Lake Mead about the cycles as Lake Mead seems to have been waiting for 20+ years.

Next 20 years will be telling...the end of this current drought cycle I believe is ending...

[Hawkeye]

Weekend rain event

[hawkstwelve]

What a difference a day makes!

We had a midnight high of 75. Currently sitting at 57 with 0.21 in the rain bucket and more falling. A couple rumbles of thunder as well. Refreshing day after the past few hot and stuffy days. 

[Iceresistance]

I'm expecting lows in the mid-50s Monday Morning. It's going to feel like fall! But for a short while before the Cockroach Ridge returns. (Not the death ridge since 100s are no longer expected)

[OKwx2k4]

@Tom

The central conus ridge recurring cycle is going to have some major competition. I think that's what we are seeing in the model there. A blend between two "polar" opposite scenarios with ridging being the slight favorite.

[OKwx2k4]

When i see nearly EVERY ocean in the northern hemisphere at those temperatures, I absolutely know where the cold will be.... 

Over the continents.

[OKwx2k4]

11 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Someone should tell Mother Nature/Lake Mead about the cycles as Lake Mead seems to have been waiting for 20+ years.

There are many cycles in nature.

Weather is no different on the short scale, climate on the long. Some cycles are short, some long. Its not chaos. Its balance. It takes a lot of study of the whole picture without any other input to figure at least that out.

Predictability will never be perfect. Weather isn't digital. It's fluid. Got to look at bare facts, not opinions. That's all. 

Not the first drought to happen there. Or in TX. Nowhere near the worst, either.

People didn't always have to be scared, lied to, paid or coerced into responsibility and conservation. Maybe that plays a part. Waste and lack of wisdom? Surely not. 

[Andie]

92 tomorrow and dry all weekend  

Then 86 Sunday and Monday.  
That’s better.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

13 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Someone should tell Mother Nature/Lake Mead about the cycles as Lake Mead seems to have been waiting for 20+ years.

Interesting. One thing that i haven't  heard much talk about. Is the amounts  of human consumption  from Lake Meade or any other western  lake. Seems to me that cities in sw usa have grown immensely?  Thats alot of water usage.

[Hawkeye]

Unfortunately, all models this evening have pushed the good rain farther east, dropping my yard below to well below 1".  The bullseye is now northern Illinois into southern Wisconsin.

[OmahaSnowFan]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

There are many cycles in nature.

Weather is no different on the short scale, climate on the long. Some cycles are short, some long. Its not chaos. Its balance. It takes a lot of study of the whole picture without any other input to figure at least that out.

Predictability will never be perfect. Weather isn't digital. It's fluid. Got to look at bare facts, not opinions. That's all. 

Not the first drought to happen there. Or in TX. Nowhere near the worst, either.

People didn't always have to be scared, lied to, paid or coerced into responsibility and conservation. Maybe that plays a part. Waste and lack of wisdom? Surely not. 

No one’s scaring me, paying me, or lying to me. Just following the facts and science.

Its too bad those on the other side only think it’s all just a big money-making, high level coordinated hoax between top level scientists and even countries around the world, with apparently made up data and flawed research. This is all being done just to make these people rich by asking the god awful evil task of having people take better care of the planet we live on. The horror…

[hawkstwelve]

Ended up receiving a total of 0.62 inches, our most in one day since 8/7. Also had a mean temp of 61 degrees, our coldest since May 31st!

Looks like there'll be some clouds around tomorrow but Sunday should be pretty sunny. Both days have highs in the low 70s. Pretty darn near perfect weather in my book.

[bud2380]

On 9/8/2022 at 10:47 AM, Phil said:

I hate September. Most boring weather of the year with rapid loss of daylight.

The entire August 15 - October 15 period is by far my least favorite weather wise. Not much to look forward to until stronger fronts/dynamics arrive later in October.

From the standpoint of interesting weather I agree. But as a person who enjoys nice weather, September is my favorite month. In Iowa we typically see prolonged periods of dry weather with very warm days and low humidity and cooler evenings. The weather has been fantastic here lately and after the next couple days it looks to continue. Not to mention the start of football season, which also adds to my love of September and early fall in general. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 81/56 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 98% of the time. The overnight low here both in MBY and at GRR has been 62 and that is the current temperature with some clouds. For today the average H/L is now down to 76/55. The record high of 94 was set in 1931 and 2013 and the record low of 36 was set in 1917 and 1969. The sun rises today at 7:16AM and set at 8:01 PM. It looks to become rather wet for Sunday and Sunday night. After that it looks to reman on the mild side.

 

[Tom]

7 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Interesting. One thing that i haven't  heard much talk about. Is the amounts  of human consumption  from Lake Meade or any other western  lake. Seems to me that cities in sw usa have grown immensely?  Thats alot of water usage.

Not to mention, the amount of agriculture that is grown in AZ/So Cal region....Arizona agriculture uses 72% of the entire water supply.  Pretty incredible and you wouldn't think that Arizona grows a lot of food, esp down near Yuma.  Nearly 2/3's of the nations fruits and veggies are grown in this region.  The farmers and ranchers use a lot of water and now they have to cut back another 3% next year.  That doesn't include the 18% cuts this year alone.  Check your local grocery store and see where the romaine salad comes from among other food.

Next year more cuts will be expected and farmers are concerned unless we bring in other modern tech to grow food with less water.  Arizona got the lower end of the stick and NOT California and neither did Nevada...gee, I wonder why??? Maybe Politics and MONEY had to do with it?

https://www.azfamily.com/2022/08/16/colorado-river-cuts-expected-arizona-other-area-states/

We'll find a solution...I'm confident of this....if all else fails, it'll eventually come from nature when these lakes get filled back up naturally.

 

[Tom]

Woke up around 2:30am today to the sounds of water dripping down the roof tiles...the valley did get a decent soaking and I think Sky Harbor got some decent rains to bump up the official readings.  It'll be nice to see PHX bump up their precip stats since that will add to the Monsoon season totals.

Earlier yesterday evening, winds picked up as a line of storms fired up kicking up dust across the valley.  Kay's influence into the valley was in full effect.  I've never experienced a tropical systems effect here in AZ so that will be checked off my bucket list.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel1rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=75&interval=10&year=2022&month=9&day=9&hour=17&minute=45

[Tom]

No, wait a second...did this just happen???  Some doubted it would...nature delivered the "goods"...

 

[Clinton]

Very much ready for this strong cold front to move through later today and drop highs into the low 70s for a few days.  Hopefully I can get some rain as it has turned rather dry here the last 2 weeks, 1/2 to 1 inch is in the forecast.  Chicago and @westMJim look to receive some heavy amounts.

https://www.drought.gov/states/missouri/county/johnson worsening in my area.

[Tom]

21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Very much ready for this strong cold front to move through later today and drop highs into the low 70s for a few days.  Hopefully I can get some rain as it has turned rather dry here the last 2 weeks, 1/2 to 1 inch is in the forecast.  Chicago and @westMJim look to receive some heavy amounts.

https://www.drought.gov/states/missouri/county/johnson worsening in my area.

Fast Forward a few months and lock it in!  Man, this system has been on my radar for a long time and its crazy how many shifts have happened in the modeling over the past few days.  This is one potent little Autumn storm...pretty dynamic and loads of precip.  Good luck to you down there!

[OmahaSnowFan]

.66” of rain IMBY so far.

Meanwhile, I’m old enough to remember when this front was going to start fall. Just have to remember this is a winter weather forum so there’s always going to be wishcasting.

[CentralNebWeather]

0.75” overnight. Raining again now with a temp of 50. Hello fall. What a tremendous change. The moisture is a godsend. 

[Andie]

Texas is used to wearing shorts on Halloween.   Even on Christmas.  
But I hope we get cooler weather and some cold, not to mention rain.  

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, Andie said:

Texas is used to wearing shorts on Halloween.   Even on Christmas.  
But I hope we get cooler weather and some cold, not to mention rain.  

I won't get much rain either, even when it appears to be during the Oklahoma State Fair!

 

Fell to 60°F this morning, 50s are possible now in the next 2 nights!

[snowstorm83]

Received around 0.75” so far, probably not much more to come. Far from a drought buster, but easily the best rain in 2 months.

[CentralNebWeather]

Another 0.50” today. Total will be close to 1.25”. Models were pretty close for amounts in the previous forecasts. I sure thought we’d get much less. Pleasantly surprised. 

[Clinton]

Cold front is about to push through in the next 20 minutes and it will be welcomed as the temp hit 89 here today.  Hopefully some rain will follow tonight if for nothing else to knock the ragweed pollin out of the air.

[Hawkeye]

The model average is around an inch here.  I'd be happy with that.

[Clinton]

Temperature is down to 76 and the windows are open for the first time since June.  It feels great having fresh air blowing in.  Tomorrow is going to be a great day to be outside, I'll be watching the Chiefs game on the back deck.

[Hawkeye]

So far this is a pretty weak rain event.  I'm at only 0.45 with only light rain through the middle of the night.  There's no way I'll make an inch... probably won't come close.

[james1976]

Up in North Dakota for the weekend. Frost Advisory tonight! Take the fall weather while I can!