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September 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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The model average is around an inch here.  I'd be happy with that.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Temperature is down to 76 and the windows are open for the first time since June.  It feels great having fresh air blowing in.  Tomorrow is going to be a great day to be outside, I'll be watching the Chiefs game on the back deck.

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So far this is a pretty weak rain event.  I'm at only 0.45 with only light rain through the middle of the night.  There's no way I'll make an inch... probably won't come close.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Clinton said:

Temperature is down to 76 and the windows are open for the first time since June.  It feels great having fresh air blowing in.  Tomorrow is going to be a great day to be outside, I'll be watching the Chiefs game on the back deck.

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“Fresh air blowing in…”.  
 

WTH is that!?  😄

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 83/62 that was more typical of a mid July day instead of a mis September day. There was no rain fall and the sun was out 79% of the possible time. The overnight low so far both at GRR and here in MBY was 61 and that is the current temperature. For today the average H/L is now down to 76/55. The record high of 94 was set in 1931 and the record low of a frosty 32 was set in 1943. Today dose not look to be very nice day with a lot of rain expected.

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I got my new water-winter wonderland license plate. Looks much better than the old one that I had that had become very faded. For those not familiar this is a remake of a old style plate from the mid 1960's

  https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/12/02/michigan-license-plate-water-winter-wonderland/8838020002/

 

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Very nice rain last night as I picked up .80 inches.  The models did a great job as they nailed the amounts for my area.  The sun is out and it's a beautiful morning outside with a temp of 56.  This weather makes the coffee taste better!  I am a little jealous of St. Joe getting into the upper 40s 

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I got 0.73".  It underperformed a bit, but it's still decent, easily the best rain since early August.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

This is absolute nuts.  101, 102, 102, 100, 100, 100 for KC.  Whether it's a nutty forecast or nutty weather, or both, it's nuts.  

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The GFS is almost unusable this time of year, it has done this since its upgrade.  It will most likely be warm but more likely upper 80s not 100.  It's kind of embarrassing to see the American model have this kind of issue in the fall all the time.

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS is almost unusable this time of year, it has done this since its upgrade.  It will most likely be warm but more likely upper 80s not 100.  It's kind of embarrassing to see the American model have this kind of issue in the fall all the time.

It certainly occurred to me that the GFS may be way off.  That's why I said it might be a nutty forecast.  I mentioned in an earlier post that I'm keeping track of GFS forecasts for days 10-14 to see how far off it is.  I started on 8.30, so the first couple of days of my little experiment are now available.  

10-day forecast for 9.9.2022 was 94.  We ended up with 89

10-day forecast for 9.10 was 92 and the 11 day forecast for 9.10 was 93.  We ended up with 70.  

We'll see how this plays out.  Either the GFS really sucks (probable) or it's going to be a record breaking stretch.

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39 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

This is absolute nuts.  101, 102, 102, 100, 100, 100 for KC in late September.  Whether it's a nutty forecast or nutty weather, or both, it's nuts.  

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Wait till we start seeing the infamous "Barney" blue colors in the LR forecasts come this cold season.  I'm sure the temps forecasts will be way off and showing outrageously brutal cold.

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The remnants of Kay will continue to spin offshore and will support a nice monsoonal flow pumping moisture into the SW.  Looking forward to more storm action over the next few days.  Not to mention, but some days in the low 90's will feel kinda nice.

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I got 0.73".  It underperformed a bit, but it's still decent, easily the best rain since early August.

Ended up with 0.75" in my backyard here in Omaha from this system... as you mentioned Hawkeye - this system underperformed just a little bit however it was still a nice, soaking rainfall that we desperately needed. 

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3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Dropped to 45 early this morning. Wonderful last few days of weather. Unfortunately, the heat returns Tuesday going forward. 

I will be out at Husker Harvest Days in Grand Island most of next week helping out in a tent with one of my top distributors... it looks like it's going to be very warm out there all three days, ugh (after the forecast showed it was going to be fairly pleasant last week). 

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34 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

I will be out at Husker Harvest Days in Grand Island most of next week helping out in a tent with one of my top distributors... it looks like it's going to be very warm out there all three days, ugh (after the forecast showed it was going to be fairly pleasant last week). 

Supposed to be a good breeze out of the south. Hopefully dews would be fairly low as irrigation season has ended. I’ve already gotten used to this cool weather and not wanting anymore 90’s. 

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17 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Ended up with 0.75" in my backyard here in Omaha from this system... as you mentioned Hawkeye - this system underperformed just a little bit however it was still a nice, soaking rainfall that we desperately needed. 

I dont  think the system  underperformed  at all in Southeast  Iowa?   I have seen dozens of reports  from i35 to Burlington  of about 1 inch or more. Around Ottumwa  I heard from maybe 7 friends with 1.20 or more. Jefferson  county had many east of Ottumwa  pushing 1.50 plus?  The southern  Iowa drought has been  going strong for several months particularly  places like Ottumwa Eldon Fairfield.  Its about time something overperformed that wasnt a small strip or stripe, I have or manage  over 25 hunting plots on over 20 farms across southern Iowa and is the very  first widespread  since maybe March!!!

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63*, heading for 87* today   Dew 54
Nice late summer/early fall day  We’ll take it!

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Wow, what an eventful day yesterday....not just in Chitown, but here in the PHX valley we shared in the wild weather!  The Bears vs 49'rs game was interesting and the weather certainly played a very big role for the last 10 minutes or so of the game.  The field looked like a slip n slide towards the end of the game!  Crazy.  The city saw some wild flash flooding as a ribbon of 4-6" of rain fell right through the heart of the city.  

Sewer covers were begin blown off...

 

Last evening, a cluster of severe warned storms formed in the southern parts of the valley and tracked due north into the PHX valley around 7pm local time kicking up dust and rather gusty winds.  I zonked out super early but the winds woke me up at times as the storms rolled in.  You can see the outflow boundary on the radar loop below...

 

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Finally, Sky Harbor got a direct hit last night by a Severe Warned storm and clocked a 80+mph wind gust and record 0.67" of rain.  Lot's of wind damage across the valley.  More storms are forecast to develop in a similar fashion later today and evening.

 

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Summer returns this coming week for most of our Sub as temps look to soar into the 90's over the Plains and then into MW this weekend.  The Ups & Downs of Fall will keep things interesting as we approach the official start of Autumn (9/22).  The system that is forecast to track into the PAC NW/N Rockies this weekend will likely bring the 1st sig Snows of the season.

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By the time we enter the Autumnal Equinox, it'll feel like Fall again for our members out west.  I've been watching for this system to deliver quite a punch but how much vigor it will deliver is TBD.  I fully anticipate a Severe Wx outbreak somewhere across the Upper MW/MW region during the 19th-21st period.  This front has the signature of a classic Autumn CF that slowly tracks down across the Sub.  Another round of big rains for IA/MN/WI/IL????

 

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 69/61 officially at the airport there was only 0.31” of rain fall, but here at my house I recorded much more at 1.52” There was no sunshine yesterday.  There was a large difference in rain fall amounts yesterday with Lansing getting only 0.22” Grand Rapids officially only 0.31” Holland 1.31” my house 1.52” and Muskegon 1.69”. The overnight low here in MBY and officially at GRR was 59. At the current time it is cloudy here and 60. The average H/L for today is 76/55 the record high of 95 was in 1952 and the record low of 37 was in 1964. Today looks to be a cool day with highs only in the 60’s

 

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I know it might be a bit early but I was cruising the 500mb charts to see if there are any hints of a new LRC forming yet. These two maps are 340 days apart and dividing by 5 gives 68 days (a little higher than the 64/65 day current cycle length). In short, this quick and dirty still overall looks pretty much like the same pattern to me.

(I know not everyone follows the LRC and I could be off in my thinking so this is for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY. )😉😀

 

lrc1a.png

lrc1b.png

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I see LRC keeps getting mentioned as a means for long range forecasting. I don't believe I have ever heard of this method in the PNW subforums or elsewhere. Anyone care to shine a light on what that LRC tool entails? 

Its a unique technology that has been created by a meteorologist Gary Lezak out of Kansas City.  He is the guru who founded this LR forecasting technique.  You can go to his site an learn more about it.  https://weather2020.substack.com/

Oct/Nov are the months when the new cycle begins to evolve and when many LRC followers pay close attn to the developing wx pattern over the Northern Hemisphere.

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The GFS continues to wanna combine some of the remnants of Kay with a weak disturbance over the Rockies and bring some rain to the northern Plains and the lakes this weekend.  It would bring some added rainfall to parts of Nebraska and Iowa. The Euro not so much on board with this yet.

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The target period of the 19th-21st is starting to show some interesting runs on the models.  We will go from the late season "Summer Sizzle"...to the "September Chill"...

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0z Euro...night time lows as we welcome the Autumnal Equinox...

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Some local storm reports from the excessive rains that fell in N IL...

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Out in the desert, I'm enjoying the temps in the low/mid 90's the last couple days and for the next few days.  TBH, its funny saying this, but when the local mets here talk about a "Cool" down of 5 degrees I used to laugh at it, but you can definitely feel the difference...albeit minimal.  As I spend more time out here, I get acclimated to the weather and I'm getting used to the warmth.  TBH, I'm yearning for those nice cool, crisp Autumn mornings.

Meantime, back at home, ORD topped out at a chilly 66F which are OCT level temps.  I'm sure many are ready for the sun to return as they have been stuck in some gloomy, cloudy days.  

 

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Over the past several runs, the EPS is starting to hone in on a more sustained "flip" in the N.A. pattern that should usher in a cooler and refreshing airmass.  All the models are starting to spike the +PNA which is a clue that a more amplified North American 500mb pattern will develop.

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The Euro Control seeing a Big Time cool down...fits with the idea that SEP will be a tale of two seasons...

 

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56 minutes ago, Tom said:

Out in the desert, I'm enjoying the temps in the low/mid 90's the last couple days and for the next few days.  TBH, its funny saying this, but when the local mets here talk about a "Cool" down of 5 degrees I used to laugh at it, but you can definitely feel the difference...albeit minimal.  As I spend more time out here, I get acclimated to the weather and I'm getting used to the warmth.  TBH, I'm yearning for those nice cool, crisp Autumn mornings.

Meantime, back at home, ORD topped out at a chilly 66F which are OCT level temps.  I'm sure many are ready for the sun to return as they have been stuck in some gloomy, cloudy days.  

 

When do you return to Chi-town?

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