September 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

The 12z Euro showed a high of 90 on 9/20 followed by a high of 60 on 9/21.

Pretty nice swing to call weather right there. Hopefully it can hold on for more than just a few days. 

0z Euro is even crazier showing 100F temps in the Plains followed by a nice greeting from the Autumnal Equinox Front...

 

Here comes the Autumnal Front...quite refreshing, ay?

[Niko]

Gorgeous stretch of weather starts as of today imby. Lows tanite in the chilly 40s and highs in the pleasant 70s, b4 the 80s return for later in the week and onto the weekend and dare I say possibly and I mean potentially near 90F early next week. Crazy!

[james1976]

My grids have dropped a few degrees to the mid 60s for highs post front. Really hoping for it. I can already smell the bonfire.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[chescowxman1]

Our record high for today here in Chester County PA is 92 degrees set back in 1915. The record low for today is 36 degrees from 1975. The daily rainfall record is the 3.53" that fell in 1966.

[james1976]

12z GFS delays the front a bit next week but still has widespread 60s behind it. It has also brought back the large trough for the end of the month.

[snowstorm83]

19 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The lows this weekend are near are normal highs

Tonight

Clear, with a low around 62. East southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. 

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 90. South wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. 

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South southeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. 

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. 

Thursday Night

A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Friday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Saturday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

Saturday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 67.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 90.

Sunday Night

Clear, with a low around 73.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 92.

Monday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 69.

Tuesday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.

 

Mid 90s in September just seem normal to me, I always forget that avg highs are in the 70s by this point 

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Mid 90s in September just seem normal to me, I always forget that avg highs are in the 70s by this point 

Another 90 degree day today, with a dew of 60.  I see averages should be 77 and 51 for Sept. 14th.

[OmahaSnowFan]

And the beat goes on....

[Iceresistance]

Mid-90s are returning next week, we have to get past that for the powerful cold fronts to swing through the weekend after the heat. The models have been showing that for a while. 

 

EDIT: Nooooooo! The 100s may be returning next week!

[OmahaSnowFan]

This was from Monday here in Nebraska.

56 degrees in one day!

[Andie]

Gorgeous evening!!!      76*. 
 

That is all!!!!

[Phil]

Snoozefest.

[Tom]

It's a nice and cool morning here 74F/53F...I can feel the drier air as its very comforting...prob going to take a nice walk later on right before sunrise...

I've been paying attn to the pattern back home and some local mets were pumping a string of 90's but it appears that storms over the weekend and into Mon are knocking down temps into the 80's.  Severe storms are looking like they will spark over E NE/IA into IL Sat-Mon period.

 

Boy, the 0z Euro has sped up the timing of the Autumnal Equinox Front and it crashes a real deal Autumn airmass across a lot of real estate.  The models ALL are seeing a -EPO/+PNA...

Whoops!

 

End of the month Flip is on target....

 

@OttumwaSnomowand the I-80 corridor looks to be in the vicinitiy of action over the weekend yet again...let's see what Mother Nature has in store...

 

 

0z Euro bringing in wide spread 40's post front next week and even some upper 30's across the Upper MW...September Chill on Z way!

 

[Tom]

As we enter the official start to Autumn, I love it when nature aligns the pattern just right...

 

Next 10 days look good for precip for those across ag belt...let's also not forget the Inter Mountain West...just beautiful to see...

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice line of thundershowers have been moving through.  Some redevelopment over the top of here. More chances tonight. 

[westMJim]

We are near the halfway point of September 2022. At Grand Rapids the mean is 37.6 that is a departure of +1.1. At Lansing the mean is 67.9 good for a departure of +2.4 at Holland the mean so far is 37.6 and their departure is +1.9 and at Muskegon Lake Michigan is keeping them warm and their mean is 69.6 good for a departure of +3.5. The mean temperatures have been rather uniform across most of west Michigan.

At Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 78/53 there was no rain fall and a reported 95% of possible sunshine. The official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 55 here in MBY the low was 57. For today the average H/L is now down to 74/53 as we continue to see our average slide downward. The record high of 97 was recorded in 1939 and the record low of 36 was recorded in 1953. The next week looks to be rather warm but there is still room for some ups and downs.

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I've been paying attn to the pattern back home and some local mets were pumping a string of 90's

The now has been some possible changes to that forecast and it may be cooler than what it looked like a few days ago. We shall see.

[Andie]

Low to mid 90’s down south.  
No rain.   Nice clear morning. 
 

Currently 61*. 
Humidity 70%
Dew 57*

[james1976]

My grids are showing 60s for highs from the 22nd-29th. Is it possible? Pretty consistent signal on the models. Timing of the cold front may vary but it looks like it means business. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Local weather app says 0.35" with the thundershowers that came through between 6:30-8:00 AM.  Very unexpected, but welcomed.  Looks like more coming tonight.  Now if we can get through next Tuesday, we might have seen the worst of the heat for the season, hopefully.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, james1976 said:

My grids are showing 60s for highs from the 22nd-29th. Is it possible? Pretty consistent signal on the models. Timing of the cold front may vary but it looks like it means business. 

I hope this is the cold front that ends summer!  We don't need any upper 80s in October. 

[OKwx2k4]

54 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Super strong +PNA signal on the latest EPS in the LR. Depending on where exactly the axis of the ridge sets up, this could lead to much more fall-like conditions over the central and eastern CONUS. Sign me up!

There's the most beautiful map in 7 months right there.

September...delayed fall but definitely won't be denied.

[james1976]

12z GFS has sped up the cold front now for next week. Has 60s in IA by Wed

[OttumwaSnomow]

In case anyone  doubts  our situation  here. As of this weeks monitor  my county of Wapello  is now the only county that in its entirely  is now in severe drought in the state of Iowa. And again  i simply  cant find a location  from north pole to  old Mexico  east of my location  to the atlantic  thats more frequently  in drought. Why?

[Andie]

Sunday to Wednesday north Texas will have a late “heat wave”.  95-97*.  No big wup.  
That’s late September here.  
Still dry though. 

[CentralNebWeather]

More heavy rain falling this evening. What a change we’ve had in the last week. 

 

 

[james1976]

GFS is nuts. Mason City IA is not gonna hit 100° next Tuesday. I know its been a long, hot sumner but come on. Lol 

[Phil]

Euro now going for 100°F here next Thursday.  

[Clinton]

Warm and more humid this weekend with some slight chances for rain.  The Euro has 98 here next Wednesday ahead of the cold front.  KC has only hit 100 degrees 2 times this late in the year.

US National Weather Service Kansas City Missouri

56 minutes ago

The latest 100 degree day on record for KC occurred on 9/28/1953 when we hit 103. The second latest was 9/22/1937 when we hit 100. Those are the only 2 dates later than the current date. Now, we aren't saying that 100 is going to happen we just wanted to throw that out there.
#KeepingIt100

[Tom]

On 9/9/2022 at 4:46 AM, Tom said:

Some of the LR clues in the Strat maps I tend to rely on are signaling an interesting end to Sep and start to OCT.  Ironically, it's the EPS and the Euro Weeklies that are "sniffing" it out as the JMA weeklies and CFSv2 are not on the same page.  It's the NE PAC ridge, the return of the "Warm Blob"...waters have really warmed in this region and I suspect the models to have some issues.  In years past, the Euro has been known to have a bias in this region, but I'm in somewhat of an awe to see that it is the only model right now showing this Ridge pattern across the NE PAC

The blossoming warmth towards the end of the animation in the NE PAC and Alaska tells me to look for ridging end of SEP and opening of OCT...

 

The latest Euro Weeklies "seeing" this???  I strongly believe so....in fact, I'll double down on this LR forecast...for those LRC followers, look at that potential beginning to the month of OCT....Wowza!

 

Even with the known bias of the EPS weeklies running a bit warm, these temp anomalies look real comfy to me...we will more than likely welcome the Autumnal Equinox with cooler temps and active wx...I agree with @hawkstwelve, 2nd half of SEP still has a good potential to "feel" more autumn-like for our Sub.

 

 

 

I'll end the post with this....#ThinkSnow...Blessings from Mother Nature!

"He who Laughs Last, Laughs Best"....as we enter the 2nd half of the month, a tale of 2 seasons shall commence next week.  It's now likely that Autumn will officially rush in with a rather vigorous CF for many on here.  A number of our members have already benefited from the recent rains @CentralNebWeather @OttumwaSnomow @Hawkeye  among others (including MBY)...the pattern is ripe to deliver more beneficial rains this weekend. 

Severe Wx threat looking much better for IA into IL late this weekend.  I've seen this same setup happen in the summer several times with multiple clusters, aka "Ridge Riders" that track on the periphery of the Heat Dome.  My original call was the 19th-21st for this threat so I'm off by 1 day if it happens earlier on Sun which appears to be what will happen.

 

Hmmm, what did the 0z EPS just flash for OCT 1st???  Looks very similar to what the EPS weeklies showed over a week ago.

 

0z Euro Control to close out the month...

 

Multiple chances for precip over the central CONUS post 19th...Nature delivering the Goods...

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

"He who Laughs Last, Laughs Best"....as we enter the 2nd half of the month, a tale of 2 seasons shall commence next week.  It's now likely that Autumn will officially rush in with a rather vigorous CF for many on here.  A number of our members have already benefited from the recent rains @CentralNebWeather @OttumwaSnomow @Hawkeye  among others (including MBY)...the pattern is ripe to deliver more beneficial rains this weekend. 

Severe Wx threat looking much better for IA into IL late this weekend.  I've seen this same setup happen in the summer several times with multiple clusters, aka "Ridge Riders" that track on the periphery of the Heat Dome.  My original call was the 19th-21st for this threat so I'm off by 1 day if it happens earlier on Sun which appears to be what will happen.

 

Hmmm, what did the 0z EPS just flash for OCT 1st???  Looks very similar to what the EPS weeklies showed over a week ago.

 

0z Euro Control to close out the month...

 

Multiple chances for precip over the central CONUS post 19th...Nature delivering the Goods...

 

 

Your right @Tom.  Had an 1.40" yesterday combining the morning 0.35" and the 1.05" we had last night.  The weather app I use says we've had 2.77" in the last week.  Yards that were very stressed just 10 days ago, are now lush.  Looks like back to mowing twice a week for a little while.  

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Your right @Tom.  Had an 1.40" yesterday combining the morning 0.35" and the 1.05" we had last night.  The weather app I use says we've had 2.77" in the last week.  Yards that were very stressed just 10 days ago, are now lush.  Looks like back to mowing twice a week for a little while.  

Congrats bud!  Glad to see things turn around...

[CentralNebWeather]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Congrats bud!  Glad to see things turn around...

Thanks.  Sure wish this could have come a month ago to help the crops, but we'll take anything we can get.

[westMJim]

 

The official H/l at Grand Rapids yesterday was 77/54 there was no rain fall and there was 55% of possible sunshine. The overnight low both here in MBY and at GRR was 58. For today the average H/L has now dropped down to 74/53. The record high for today is 89 in 1906 and 1955. This is the first time the high for the day has not been 90 or better since May 24^th The record low for today is 32 in 1902. Most of the next week looks to stay on the warm side until late next week when we could see a good cool down.

 

[Madtown]

Looks like summer till next Thursday. Hope to be over the vid by then...any advice appreciated. Come on Snow!!!

[james1976]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

"He who Laughs Last, Laughs Best"....as we enter the 2nd half of the month, a tale of 2 seasons shall commence next week.  It's now likely that Autumn will officially rush in with a rather vigorous CF for many on here.  A number of our members have already benefited from the recent rains @CentralNebWeather @OttumwaSnomow @Hawkeye  among others (including MBY)...the pattern is ripe to deliver more beneficial rains this weekend. 

Severe Wx threat looking much better for IA into IL late this weekend.  I've seen this same setup happen in the summer several times with multiple clusters, aka "Ridge Riders" that track on the periphery of the Heat Dome.  My original call was the 19th-21st for this threat so I'm off by 1 day if it happens earlier on Sun which appears to be what will happen.

 

Hmmm, what did the 0z EPS just flash for OCT 1st???  Looks very similar to what the EPS weeklies showed over a week ago.

 

0z Euro Control to close out the month...

 

Multiple chances for precip over the central CONUS post 19th...Nature delivering the Goods...

 

 

Is it possible we could be on the brink of a pattern change??? Would be a lot of happy campers in here!

[Timmy Supercell]

These mornings in the 50's with fog are awesome. Starting to have a few days here where we don't really need to run the AC until sometime in the late afternoon. 

[Iceresistance]

Upper 90s are now likely next week, I hope that this is "Summer's last stand (or revenge)" before winter

[Clinton]

The SPC has put out a couple of slight risk areas for tomorrow and this evenings Euro shows some beneficial rain near @OttumwaSnomow  Fingers crossed the areas that need rain get some.

 

18z Euro

This evenings NAM has rains further north near @Hawkeye