September 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

I didn't think my area back home would get hit but it certainly did as a severe warned cell moved through just before midnight.  I have to see if there was any hail that dropped from those strong cells as there was half dollar size hail that fell to the SW of ORD.   It feels like dejavu all over again as I can remember a very similar set up that happen back in July and sparked storms in a similar fashion over N MO/IL and into IN.

Once again, our local photographer in Chi captured these "twinning" bolts of lightning...

 

 

[Tom]

Here we go again...the Monsoon is going to Fire up here in the valley as the pattern is ripe for a golden opportunity to really put an exclamation point to the official 2022 season.  I'm really hoping Sky Harbor can get nailed bc it needs to catch up in the precip dept.  It's really interesting how the valley can get hit in various parts while others miss out on the storms.  This season it has been more widespread which is a great thing to be able to "spread the wealth" but when it comes down to the official tally I'd like to see PHX smash a big hit. 

0z Euro suggesting over 1" qpf for the central valley...

 

 

The cut-off trough to the west of Cali combined with the monster Ridge over TX/OK creates an ideal flow...

[Tom]

0z EPS over the next couple weeks is showing multiple chances for more precip across the central Sub this coming week but what caught my eye is the increase in the potential for a Tropical system near FL/NE GOM/SE towards the end of SEP and opening of OCT.  The 0z GEFS is also sniffing out this potential.

[OttumwaSnomow]

Just stunned. 3.87 over weekend. 5.19 in September.  As often happens  after a dry summer September  comes in wet here. Did this 2012 2015 2017 2022.

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 82/65 for yet another very warm September day. There was officially 0.14” of rain fall and there was 57% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in my MBY was 66. For today the average H/L is now down to 73/52 so far this month the coldest low has been just 52. The record high for today is 91 is 1908 and the record low of 36 happened in 1929, 1979 and 2020. In 2020 there was frost here in my area. It looks to be warm thru Wednesday and then cool down to below average temperatures thru Sunday.

[westMJim]

In going thru pictures on my phone I came across some pictures in my area of fall color. While it may not be the peak of the color season it none the less gives you a idea of when there was some good color in several years. However I do not have each year covered but there was good color in 2014 on October 15. 2015 on November 3, 2018 October 29, 2019 October 23 and 2020 October 9th. I would point out thar in 2020 there was a frost here on September 19th

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Forecast hi for me today is 99.  Tomorrow is 100.  Both will/would be records.  Only twice in recorded KC history has it been 100+ later in the year than 9.20.  Yesterday, KC tied it's record hi of 96, set in 1925. 

Not to mention we will likely have our highest low temp, breaking the record from 1931.

We are on RECORD WATCH here in KC this morning. The warmest low temperature for this date is 77 set in 1931...it is currently 78 (but we've only dropped 1 degree in the past 3 hours). The record high today is 95 set in 1954/1931...the forecast high is 98.

[CentralNebWeather]

At 1:30 PM, 90 degrees feels like 93 with a 64 dew.  Tomorrow, potential record high of 96.  Wednesday 61 and Thursday 55 with good chances for rain.  That is one potent cold front coming.  Thank goodness.

[Tom]

A tad toasty today…

[Andie]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

The cut-off trough to the west of Cali combined with the monster Ridge over TX/OK creates an ideal flow...

Oh darn!  I always cringe when I see these huge Highs circling over us like vultures!  
High of 95 today.

[Clinton]

Kansas City International Airport reached a high temperature of 99 degrees this afternoon. This breaks the daily record high temperature of 95 degrees set in 1954.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Lincoln should hit 100 on back to back days after outperforming today.

I “only” reached 90.5 IMBY, but the dew was over 70 most of the day so pretty brutal.

Forecast for tomorrow is 97 and then 75 Wednesday!

I also only received .29” of rain over the weekend.

Went chasing yesterday and was left pretty disappointed. One line cell popped about 630-700 and moved right along the highway so was east to follow. It went tornado warned for a while but was never close to dropping one, and then died a pretty rapid death about sunset.

[snowstorm83]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Lincoln should hit 100 on back to back days after outperforming today.

I “only” reached 90.5 IMBY, but the dew was over 70 most of the day so pretty brutal.

Forecast for tomorrow is 97 and then 75 Wednesday!

I also only received .29” of rain over the weekend.

Went chasing yesterday and was left pretty disappointed. One line cell popped about 630-700 and moved right along the highway so was east to follow. It went tornado warned for a while but was never close to dropping one, and then died a pretty rapid death about sunset.

5 degrees below average will feel quite cool after breaking record highs 

[CentralNebWeather]

Very nice Fall weather after tomorrow. 

[Phil]

2 more days in the upper 80s to get through.

First cold front of the season arrives Thursday. Really looking forward to it.

[Clinton]

Another hot record breaking day hopefully this will be the last!  Currently 77 degrees which is real close to the average high for this time of year.

[westMJim]

This sure has been a warm September so far. The average H/L after the first 19 days this month has been 77.9/58.6. And that said yesterday was no exception with a H/L of 79/62. There was a trace of rain fall reported along with 91% of possible sunshine. The overnight low so far at GRR has been 55 and here in MBY the low and current temperature so far is 54. For today the average H/L has dropped again and is now 72/51 the record high of 90 was set in 1931 and the record low of 33 was set in 1956. Today and tomorrow look to be the last of the warm days for a while with highs in the upper 70’s before a sharp cool down for highs in the 60’s until the start of next week. It will feel cool as it has been so warm for so long.

 

[Tom]

After reading this mornings WGN Blog, it does appear my place got some decent hail (1.75") and appreciable rains (1.89").  Many folks are looking forward towards the seasons "First Taste of Fall"...coinciding with natures official start to Autumn on 9/22.

Getting some spotting rain showers over the valley but nothing to impressive ATM.  Current temp of 82F feels nice this morning as today should be mostly cloudy today.  Tomorrow and Thursday look rather impressive as we can get some training storms to develop.  I hope Sky Harbor gets a direct hit that will increase the official Monsoon tally.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Already 92 at 1145am. Will be close call to hit 100 later this afternoon.

[james1976]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

No real end in sight to the above normal temps here.  Yes, there are a couple of cool shots to at least give us a break.  But only 3 of the next 16 days are forecast to be below normal.  And 9-10 days are forecast to be 8+ degrees above normal.  

Yup my extended is mainly 70s now. Which is nice I guess but it's gonna be above normal.

[james1976]

GFS (if you can trust it) has gone away from the trough at the end of the month to ridging with widespread 70s and 80s.

[OmahaSnowFan]

NWS going with 103 for Lincoln today!

[OmahaSnowFan]

Lincoln has hit 100 at 2p.

96/103 IMBY at 2p.

[Clinton]

KC is most likely over 100 degrees, it's currently 99 in mby.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

 

99° F, 1:25pm CDT No sugar coating it... Ughhh

[Clinton]

On the bright side the Euro has a nice stripe of rain for the KC area as the cold front moves through. The GFS has very little.

[CentralNebWeather]

Today is the 3rd game for our 7th Grade and 8th Grade football teams that I coach.  All 3 games will have had temps into the mid 90's.  By tomorrow and Thursday, rain and warm weather gear will come out.  Sure have to hope that this is the end of the 90's for the season.  I know I've said that before and have been disappointed.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OmahaSnowFan]

98.8 IMBY so far.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Some rather intense pop up T-Storms (of course not in grids nor discussion from NWS) that has cooled temps to mid 80's in the DSM area-

[Grizzcoat]

4:50 pm on the Twet- NWS DSM should focus on weather forecasting rather than climo-- not doing very good at all with tstorms to the W-  not even a SWS? Come on man- do your job NWS>

[Grizzcoat]

Impressive to see this rain from over 20 miles away. Looks more like a dust storm.

[OmahaSnowFan]

22 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

4:50 pm on the Twet- NWS DSM should focus on weather forecasting rather than climo-- not doing very good at all with tstorms to the W-  not even a SWS? Come on man- do your job NWS>

Why can’t they (the meteorologists and weather service) share a rather remarkable stat like that?

[OmahaSnowFan]

Made it!!

100.4 IMBY 

[Grizzcoat]

3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Why can’t they (the meteorologists and weather service) share a rather remarkable stat like that?

They can  after they get the forecast correct. After all, the main purpose of the NWS is to protect life and property.  The tweets and stats can wait until after the storms pass. ( again not forecasted at the time of these posts- but just now they have inserted isolated  TS into grids)

[Grizzcoat]

Really just posting these to see what they look like on a desktop and not phone. About 5 mins ago

[Grizzcoat]

Grainy- just like I thought-

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Hawkeye]

Cedar Rapids reached 96º, tying June 21st for the hottest day of the year.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Clinton]

Today will be the last day of the ridiculous heat.  The cold front should move through mby around 4 to 5pm I can't wait for it to get here.  It's hard to believe thunderstorms won't occur with a front like this but only the Euro shows any significant rain for the KC area.