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September 2022 Observations and Discussion


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On 9/20/2022 at 11:01 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

610temp.conus.png

610prcp.conus.png

814temp.conus.png

814prcp.conus.png

That 8-14 is in a jeopardy of a major bust if the Euro is correct. But then again- the 8-14 could be .1F above normal and the probability outlook still verifies no matter how red the graphics are.

Here is the next 10 days for KDSM (so pretty much includes all but 1-2 days  of the 8-14 from Tuesday)

max of near 80F this Sat and warm overnight into Sun- other than that its at or below normal.

The dryness is almost a given- but we are now at a point where nights are getting long enough to balance out the dry air heating with = cooling at night with regards to temps. This upcoming cooldown middle of next week is evident of that.

FORECAST MODELS
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.61  LON =  -93.88

                                            00Z SEP23
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI 00Z 23-SEP  16.4     7.8    1023      62       6             582     563    
FRI 06Z 23-SEP  14.3     8.9    1022      62      31             582     563    
FRI 12Z 23-SEP  14.0     7.2    1021      68      86    0.01     579     562    
FRI 18Z 23-SEP  14.1     7.0    1018      73      97    0.22     577     562    
SAT 00Z 24-SEP  15.7     7.3    1014      70      33    0.00     574     563    
SAT 06Z 24-SEP  14.0    12.4    1013      89      60    0.00     574     563    
SAT 12Z 24-SEP  15.3    13.0    1012      88      55    0.00     574     564    
SAT 18Z 24-SEP  24.5    12.0    1012      41      26    0.00     575     565    
SUN 00Z 25-SEP  21.7    14.0    1011      49      55    0.00     573     564    
SUN 06Z 25-SEP  19.9    12.1    1012      49      79    0.00     569     559    
SUN 12Z 25-SEP  15.2     8.5    1015      59      37    0.00     570     558    
SUN 18Z 25-SEP  22.4     9.0    1016      37       3    0.00     573     560    
MON 00Z 26-SEP  19.5     9.6    1015      36       3    0.00     572     559    
MON 06Z 26-SEP  14.5     6.4    1017      45       5    0.00     570     555    
MON 12Z 26-SEP  11.1     5.6    1019      56      11    0.00     570     554    
MON 18Z 26-SEP  19.1     5.3    1019      34      24    0.00     570     554    
TUE 00Z 27-SEP  17.9     8.1    1017      36      50    0.00     570     555    
TUE 06Z 27-SEP  13.7     8.6    1018      54      94    0.00     570     555    
TUE 12Z 27-SEP  11.1     6.3    1021      60      71    0.00     571     554    
TUE 18Z 27-SEP  17.3     4.2    1024      37       4    0.00     574     554    
WED 00Z 28-SEP  14.9     4.2    1024      38       2    0.00     576     556    
WED 06Z 28-SEP   8.2     1.9    1029      58       2    0.00     579     555    
WED 12Z 28-SEP   4.8     2.3    1032      74       9    0.00     581     555    
WED 18Z 28-SEP  14.2     1.7    1032      45      24    0.00     584     557    
THU 00Z 29-SEP  12.3     3.0    1029      53      17    0.00     584     560    
THU 06Z 29-SEP   7.8     5.6    1030      71      18    0.00     584     560    
THU 12Z 29-SEP   5.4     6.9    1031      87      20    0.00     584     559    
THU 18Z 29-SEP  16.4     8.3    1029      45      25    0.00     583     560    
FRI 00Z 30-SEP  14.6    10.0    1025      54      52    0.00     582     561    
FRI 06Z 30-SEP  10.7    11.6    1025      72      68    0.00     582     561    
FRI 12Z 30-SEP   8.3     9.7    1026      82      83    0.00     580     559    
FRI 18Z 30-SEP  19.0     9.6    1023      45      73    0.00     580     561    
SAT 00Z 01-OCT  16.8    11.3    1020      53      59    0.00     579     562    
SAT 06Z 01-OCT  12.0    11.5    1022      74      43    0.00     579     561    
SAT 12Z 01-OCT   8.7    10.3    1024      89      37    0.00     579     560    
SAT 18Z 01-OCT  19.8    10.8    1023      41      36    0.00     580     560    
SUN 00Z 02-OCT  16.6    11.9    1022      53      39    0.00     580     561    
SUN 06Z 02-OCT  11.0    11.8    1024      78      62    0.00     580     560    
SUN 12Z 02-OCT   7.7    11.8    1025      91      60    0.00     580     559    
SUN 18Z 02-OCT  20.7    10.9    1025      44      57    0.00     581     560    
MON 00Z 03-OCT  17.5    11.6    1024      53      54    0.00     581     561    



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9 hours ago, Madtown said:

Freeze warning tonight. 29 for the low

A little early for this but I'm sure you'll be enjoying this abrupt end to Summer?  Next major trough to crash into the GL's next week.  Crazy blocking pattern setting up and something that perks my interests as we monitor the seasonal changes.

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8 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

The weather actually listened to the calendar this year. A much cooler 74 degrees for a high today (from 93 yesterday) and wind gusts following the passage of a cold front. Fall arrived on schedule.

I realize we've had several drops in temps like this over the last few months, but, no days warmer than 76 show on wunderground 10-day. A few 60's in there to end September even! 

Get ready to enjoy more of this as we continue down the seasonal changes...I think a big year is ahead for the cold season across the Eastern CONUS.

 

8 hours ago, james1976 said:

Today only made it to 63 up here in the MN home. Really nice weather. Tonight my fiancee and I roasted hotdogs over a campfire in the backyard to ring in Fall. It was 52° when we came outside and 48 when we went back inside. Mostly clear but clouds were moving in from the west from the approaching system. Steady light rain in the forecast for tomorrow with a high of 57. Love this current weather. Been waiting a long time for this. #hoodieseason 

Wow, that is just what I'm yearning for when I get back home.  Enjoy my friend!  I know you love this type of weather.

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

That 8-14 is in a jeopardy of a major bust if the Euro is correct. But then again- the 8-14 could be .1F above normal and the probability outlook still verifies no matter how red the graphics are.

Here is the next 10 days for KDSM (so pretty much includes all but 1-2 days  of the 8-14 from Tuesday)

max of near 80F this Sat and warm overnight into Sun- other than that its at or below normal.

The dryness is almost a given- but we are now at a point where nights are getting long enough to balance out the dry air heating with = cooling at night with regards to temps. This upcoming cooldown middle of next week is evident of that.

FORECAST MODELS
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.61  LON =  -93.88

                                            00Z SEP23
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI 00Z 23-SEP  16.4     7.8    1023      62       6             582     563    
FRI 06Z 23-SEP  14.3     8.9    1022      62      31             582     563    
FRI 12Z 23-SEP  14.0     7.2    1021      68      86    0.01     579     562    
FRI 18Z 23-SEP  14.1     7.0    1018      73      97    0.22     577     562    
SAT 00Z 24-SEP  15.7     7.3    1014      70      33    0.00     574     563    
SAT 06Z 24-SEP  14.0    12.4    1013      89      60    0.00     574     563    
SAT 12Z 24-SEP  15.3    13.0    1012      88      55    0.00     574     564    
SAT 18Z 24-SEP  24.5    12.0    1012      41      26    0.00     575     565    
SUN 00Z 25-SEP  21.7    14.0    1011      49      55    0.00     573     564    
SUN 06Z 25-SEP  19.9    12.1    1012      49      79    0.00     569     559    
SUN 12Z 25-SEP  15.2     8.5    1015      59      37    0.00     570     558    
SUN 18Z 25-SEP  22.4     9.0    1016      37       3    0.00     573     560    
MON 00Z 26-SEP  19.5     9.6    1015      36       3    0.00     572     559    
MON 06Z 26-SEP  14.5     6.4    1017      45       5    0.00     570     555    
MON 12Z 26-SEP  11.1     5.6    1019      56      11    0.00     570     554    
MON 18Z 26-SEP  19.1     5.3    1019      34      24    0.00     570     554    
TUE 00Z 27-SEP  17.9     8.1    1017      36      50    0.00     570     555    
TUE 06Z 27-SEP  13.7     8.6    1018      54      94    0.00     570     555    
TUE 12Z 27-SEP  11.1     6.3    1021      60      71    0.00     571     554    
TUE 18Z 27-SEP  17.3     4.2    1024      37       4    0.00     574     554    
WED 00Z 28-SEP  14.9     4.2    1024      38       2    0.00     576     556    
WED 06Z 28-SEP   8.2     1.9    1029      58       2    0.00     579     555    
WED 12Z 28-SEP   4.8     2.3    1032      74       9    0.00     581     555    
WED 18Z 28-SEP  14.2     1.7    1032      45      24    0.00     584     557    
THU 00Z 29-SEP  12.3     3.0    1029      53      17    0.00     584     560    
THU 06Z 29-SEP   7.8     5.6    1030      71      18    0.00     584     560    
THU 12Z 29-SEP   5.4     6.9    1031      87      20    0.00     584     559    
THU 18Z 29-SEP  16.4     8.3    1029      45      25    0.00     583     560    
FRI 00Z 30-SEP  14.6    10.0    1025      54      52    0.00     582     561    
FRI 06Z 30-SEP  10.7    11.6    1025      72      68    0.00     582     561    
FRI 12Z 30-SEP   8.3     9.7    1026      82      83    0.00     580     559    
FRI 18Z 30-SEP  19.0     9.6    1023      45      73    0.00     580     561    
SAT 00Z 01-OCT  16.8    11.3    1020      53      59    0.00     579     562    
SAT 06Z 01-OCT  12.0    11.5    1022      74      43    0.00     579     561    
SAT 12Z 01-OCT   8.7    10.3    1024      89      37    0.00     579     560    
SAT 18Z 01-OCT  19.8    10.8    1023      41      36    0.00     580     560    
SUN 00Z 02-OCT  16.6    11.9    1022      53      39    0.00     580     561    
SUN 06Z 02-OCT  11.0    11.8    1024      78      62    0.00     580     560    
SUN 12Z 02-OCT   7.7    11.8    1025      91      60    0.00     580     559    
SUN 18Z 02-OCT  20.7    10.9    1025      44      57    0.00     581     560    
MON 00Z 03-OCT  17.5    11.6    1024      53      54    0.00     581     561    



Just like the local mets back home that were pushing temps in the 90's a week out bc they are big time warm wx fans.  The WGN producer Loves the heat and warmth but ORD never even hit 90F and held in the mid/upper 80's with plenty of rain.  Like you mentioned, and I agree, the Euro/EPS are a step ahead of the GEFS sniffing out the trough underneath the big Ridge up Top in Canada which leads to a number of days in a row of BN temps.  #BlockyBlocky

1.gif

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Yesterdays official H/L at Grand Rapids was 63/45 There was a reported trace of rain fall and 67% of possible sunshine. So far, the official overnight low at GRR is 42 here in MBY it was 39 and that is the current temperature here in MBY. For GRR that 42 is the coldest it has been since May 23rd that reading of 39 here at my house would be the coldest since May 8th  For today the average H/L is now down to 71/50 the record high of 96 was set in 2017 and the record low of 28 was set in 1974. The spread for today is from hot to a frosty cold.

 

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32 minutes ago, Tom said:

Just like the local mets back home that were pushing temps in the 90's a week out

There was some talk of reaching 90 here as well but the warmest it go that last round was 83 but it was nice and warm for mid September. 

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A cool and maybe wet day ahead.  Hopefully the Euro can get the rainfall forecast right as it lays down a strip of 1/2 -1in of rainfall right through mby, the other models are much lighter with amounts.  The weekend looks great to get outside!

image.png.739f82cf01dcc26655e647c2cb635af0.png

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With no rain in the forecast September will likely finish with only 0.96" at LNK, after only 0.55" in August. Currently at 18.4" for the year, so I doubt we will remain below the 19.14" in 2012, but I wouldn't be surprised if we barely make it above 20". 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Average high temperature for FSD is 73 today, making it's march down to 70 by 9/30. 

Including today, 5 of those next 8 days are below normal per the latest EPS. The 25-75% bracket for temps barely reaches over 80 for the entirety of the run. Definitely looking like we have turned a page into a new season. 

I was about a week late with my call of there being two halves to September but overall it will end up looking pretty close to that with the first half being dominated by 80s/90s and the last 1/3 or so being normal or below normal. I'll take it as a W!

14-km EPS Global KFSD 15-day Daily Temperature.png

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Average high temperature for FSD is 73 today, making it's march down to 70 by 9/30. 

Including today, 5 of those next 8 days are below normal per the latest EPS. The 25-75% bracket for temps barely reaches over 80 for the entirety of the run. Definitely looking like we have turned a page into a new season. 

I was about a week late with my call of there being two halves to September but overall it will end up looking pretty close to that with the first half being dominated by 80s/90s and the last 1/3 or so being normal or below normal. I'll take it as a W!

14-km EPS Global KFSD 15-day Daily Temperature.png

#Winning

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Get ready to enjoy more of this as we continue down the seasonal changes...I think a big year is ahead for the cold season across the Eastern CONUS.

 

Wow, that is just what I'm yearning for when I get back home.  Enjoy my friend!  I know you love this type of weather.

I didn't realize how warm October 2021 was here right before I arrived in town. Think this October runs a cold departure?

(Even though it didn't get to 90 here last Oct, it had warm lows...)

2022-09-23 11_17_27-NOWData Results.png

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 52
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - __.__
First freeze: Oct 9th
 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Just like the local mets back home that were pushing temps in the 90's a week out bc they are big time warm wx fans.  The WGN producer Loves the heat and warmth but ORD never even hit 90F and held in the mid/upper 80's with plenty of rain.  Like you mentioned, and I agree, the Euro/EPS are a step ahead of the GEFS sniffing out the trough underneath the big Ridge up Top in Canada which leads to a number of days in a row of BN temps.  #BlockyBlocky

1.gif

Just for the record, not everyone who comments on, and highlights, the warmth are pushing an agenda.  I personally love winter, and I don't for a minute want global warming to be a thing.  I've resisted buying into it for years because I hate the idea of my beloved winters here in the mid latitudes becoming warmer and less snowy. I've looked high and low for evidence that things aren't truly warming.  Lately, I'm focused on the warmth out of frustration, not to prove a point about a political issue.   It's a complicated issue, and I'm very open minded as to what might be causing increased warmth.  But I just don't see how anyone can deny that things are warmer right now.  Whether that will continue or not, I don't know.  But between permafrost melting, glaciers melting, average temps having risen in most areas, etc., it just seems to be a fact we have to accept.  I'm not saying there can't be reasonable debate about the cause.  I just don't see how there can be any debate about the fact of the warmth, though.

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1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I didn't realize how warm October 2021 was here right before I arrived in town. Think this October runs a cold departure?

(Even though it didn't get to 90 here last Oct, it had warm lows...)

2022-09-23 11_17_27-NOWData Results.png

You'll prob end up being BN in the temp dept with AN precip for OCT as I'm seeing several opportunities for real heavy rain threats...Possible  App's early season snows late month.

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3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Just for the record, not everyone who comments on, and highlights, the warmth are pushing an agenda.  I personally love winter, and I don't for a minute want global warming to be a thing.  I've resisted buying into it for years because I hate the idea of my beloved winters here in the mid latitudes becoming warmer and less snowy. I've looked high and low for evidence that things aren't truly warming.  Lately, I'm focused on the warmth out of frustration, not to prove a point about a political issue.   It's a complicated issue, and I'm very open minded as to what might be causing increased warmth.  But I just don't see how anyone can deny that things are warmer right now.  Whether that will continue or not, I don't know.  But between permafrost melting, glaciers melting, average temps having risen in most areas, etc., it just seems to be a fact we have to accept.  I'm not saying there can't be reasonable debate about the cause.  I just don't see how there can be any debate about the fact of the warmth, though.

That post was not geared towards global warming or being political but rather how their personal wants/needs influence a forecast.  It’s a fine line when your a wx man/woman on TV and always pushing a warmer forecast in summer or less snowier one in the winter.  It must be hard for someone to be disciplined enough to exclude their preferences.  I see it happen a lot on this network and I’m sure there are other Mets around the country that do the same. It’s just human nature I guess. 

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24 minutes ago, Tom said:

That post was not geared towards global warming or being political but rather how their personal wants/needs influence a forecast.  It’s a fine line when your a wx man/woman on TV and always pushing a warmer forecast in summer or less snowier one in the winter.  It must be hard for someone to be disciplined enough to exclude their preferences.  I see it happen a lot on this network and I’m sure there are other Mets around the country that do the same. It’s just human nature I guess. 

We had a similar situation in Seattle. A few local mets always fed into their snow-hating side and banked on the side of less snow in the winter. As such, they got a lot of flack from the weather enthusiast community. Just mention the name "Rich Marriott" in the PNW subforums and see the response you get! Then you had a few other local mets who leaned into their "weather weenie" side and would clearly get excited when snow was in the forecast, often times leaning on the higher end of snow totals for their forecasts. Granted in Seattle you will most likely be right when you forecast less snow as that's usually how it works out but lemme tell ya - when the low-end forecast would occasionally bust and we would get a whallop of snow, I would surely be sticking my tongue out at the TV any time those nay-sayer weathermen were on! 😆

Like you said, I'm sure it's hard to put aside your weather preferences when making a forecast. That being said, I wish professional mets made a bit more of a concerted effort to remain neutral in their forecast discussions and predictions. Seems like when local decisions are being made based on your forecast (and are not just a part of an online weather forum, like us) it would be ultra important to ensure you are accurate and not just wish-casting one way or the other.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Welcome to the first full day of Autumn! Low clouds all day and 0.04" of rain so far. Only 55 out. What a great way to ring in fall. My grids for next week are mainly 60s...even 50s one day. The other day it was looking like 70s so it's nice to see the cooler trend.

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25 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We had a similar situation in Seattle. A few local mets always fed into their snow-hating side and banked on the side of less snow in the winter. As such, they got a lot of flack from the weather enthusiast community. Just mention the name "Rich Marriott" in the PNW subforums and see the response you get! Then you had a few other local mets who leaned into their "weather weenie" side and would clearly get excited when snow was in the forecast, often times leaning on the higher end of snow totals for their forecasts. Granted in Seattle you will most likely be right when you forecast less snow as that's usually how it works out but lemme tell ya - when the low-end forecast would occasionally bust and we would get a whallop of snow, I would surely be sticking my tongue out at the TV any time those nay-sayer weathermen were on! 😆

Like you said, I'm sure it's hard to put aside your weather preferences when making a forecast. That being said, I wish professional mets made a bit more of a concerted effort to remain neutral in their forecast discussions and predictions. Seems like when local decisions are being made based on your forecast (and are not just a part of an online weather forum, like us) it would be ultra important to ensure you are accurate and not just wish-casting one way or the other.

When you cater to bigger markets like Chicago or Seattle you would think they have more pressure to be accurate…or…maybe not.

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17 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

That 8-14 is in a jeopardy of a major bust if the Euro is correct. But then again- the 8-14 could be .1F above normal and the probability outlook still verifies no matter how red the graphics are.

Here is the next 10 days for KDSM (so pretty much includes all but 1-2 days  of the 8-14 from Tuesday)

max of near 80F this Sat and warm overnight into Sun- other than that its at or below normal.

The dryness is almost a given- but we are now at a point where nights are getting long enough to balance out the dry air heating with = cooling at night with regards to temps. This upcoming cooldown middle of next week is evident of that.

FORECAST MODELS
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  41.61  LON =  -93.88

                                            00Z SEP23
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI 00Z 23-SEP  16.4     7.8    1023      62       6             582     563    
FRI 06Z 23-SEP  14.3     8.9    1022      62      31             582     563    
FRI 12Z 23-SEP  14.0     7.2    1021      68      86    0.01     579     562    
FRI 18Z 23-SEP  14.1     7.0    1018      73      97    0.22     577     562    
SAT 00Z 24-SEP  15.7     7.3    1014      70      33    0.00     574     563    
SAT 06Z 24-SEP  14.0    12.4    1013      89      60    0.00     574     563    
SAT 12Z 24-SEP  15.3    13.0    1012      88      55    0.00     574     564    
SAT 18Z 24-SEP  24.5    12.0    1012      41      26    0.00     575     565    
SUN 00Z 25-SEP  21.7    14.0    1011      49      55    0.00     573     564    
SUN 06Z 25-SEP  19.9    12.1    1012      49      79    0.00     569     559    
SUN 12Z 25-SEP  15.2     8.5    1015      59      37    0.00     570     558    
SUN 18Z 25-SEP  22.4     9.0    1016      37       3    0.00     573     560    
MON 00Z 26-SEP  19.5     9.6    1015      36       3    0.00     572     559    
MON 06Z 26-SEP  14.5     6.4    1017      45       5    0.00     570     555    
MON 12Z 26-SEP  11.1     5.6    1019      56      11    0.00     570     554    
MON 18Z 26-SEP  19.1     5.3    1019      34      24    0.00     570     554    
TUE 00Z 27-SEP  17.9     8.1    1017      36      50    0.00     570     555    
TUE 06Z 27-SEP  13.7     8.6    1018      54      94    0.00     570     555    
TUE 12Z 27-SEP  11.1     6.3    1021      60      71    0.00     571     554    
TUE 18Z 27-SEP  17.3     4.2    1024      37       4    0.00     574     554    
WED 00Z 28-SEP  14.9     4.2    1024      38       2    0.00     576     556    
WED 06Z 28-SEP   8.2     1.9    1029      58       2    0.00     579     555    
WED 12Z 28-SEP   4.8     2.3    1032      74       9    0.00     581     555    
WED 18Z 28-SEP  14.2     1.7    1032      45      24    0.00     584     557    
THU 00Z 29-SEP  12.3     3.0    1029      53      17    0.00     584     560    
THU 06Z 29-SEP   7.8     5.6    1030      71      18    0.00     584     560    
THU 12Z 29-SEP   5.4     6.9    1031      87      20    0.00     584     559    
THU 18Z 29-SEP  16.4     8.3    1029      45      25    0.00     583     560    
FRI 00Z 30-SEP  14.6    10.0    1025      54      52    0.00     582     561    
FRI 06Z 30-SEP  10.7    11.6    1025      72      68    0.00     582     561    
FRI 12Z 30-SEP   8.3     9.7    1026      82      83    0.00     580     559    
FRI 18Z 30-SEP  19.0     9.6    1023      45      73    0.00     580     561    
SAT 00Z 01-OCT  16.8    11.3    1020      53      59    0.00     579     562    
SAT 06Z 01-OCT  12.0    11.5    1022      74      43    0.00     579     561    
SAT 12Z 01-OCT   8.7    10.3    1024      89      37    0.00     579     560    
SAT 18Z 01-OCT  19.8    10.8    1023      41      36    0.00     580     560    
SUN 00Z 02-OCT  16.6    11.9    1022      53      39    0.00     580     561    
SUN 06Z 02-OCT  11.0    11.8    1024      78      62    0.00     580     560    
SUN 12Z 02-OCT   7.7    11.8    1025      91      60    0.00     580     559    
SUN 18Z 02-OCT  20.7    10.9    1025      44      57    0.00     581     560    
MON 00Z 03-OCT  17.5    11.6    1024      53      54    0.00     581     561    



Correct. Even the Barney maps only show likelihood of below normal temperatures and even if it’s .1 degrees.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

That post was not geared towards global warming or being political but rather how their personal wants/needs influence a forecast.  It’s a fine line when your a wx man/woman on TV and always pushing a warmer forecast in summer or less snowier one in the winter.  It must be hard for someone to be disciplined enough to exclude their preferences.  I see it happen a lot on this network and I’m sure there are other Mets around the country that do the same. It’s just human nature I guess. 

Yep bias will probably always show up. Especially on a winter weather forum site.😉

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yep bias will probably always show up. Especially on a winter weather forum site.😉

The difference is, I don’t get paid $100k+ salary…I donate my time and efforts on this forum.  I have fun with it.

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We had a high of 69 today or 4 degrees below normal and our mean temp was only 57 which is good for a -3 departure. Not too shabby.

I just love sunny, chilly days. Perfect early-fall weather that looks to continue for at least a while longer.

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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My Dad is in the motherland of Poland visiting family and he’s going hiking in the southern Tatra’s mountains.  There is a wonderful resort town called Zakopane that is a very popular ski town and summertime mountain climbing and hiking destination.  The town is known for its old school wooden chalets.  It’s a gorgeous part of the country as the beauty of the mountain ranges tower into the sky.  
 

The weather in Eastern Europe has been unusually chilly and there is already a lot of snow on the peaks as you can see in the picture below.  I’ll post more pics as I receive them.  
 

E6D7CC5C-EAFC-461F-9DB0-C487C35200C2.jpeg

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I like the latest trends out here as there is one last hoorah for the official Monsoon season.  Some models are spitting out some decent moisture for the valley starting next Tue through the rest of the month.  Come on baby...I'm hoping PHX can record some more precip to break past normal for the season.

Meantime, Tropical Storm Ian has formed and I'm worried for my friends down in FL.  This blocking GL's HP is going to do some dirty work.  Not only are models increasingly showing colder temps around the GL's region for a longer period mid next week but that Big Block up Over The Top may stall out the storm over or near FL.  So much to digest over the next few days.  Should be fun tracking this potential major threat.

image.png

image.png

 

LR signals showing up in the GEFS/EPS that the BSR rule may come into fruition during the 1st week of OCT....my early call of a storm system tracking into the N Rockies around the 3rd-5th is showing up.  Should be an interesting start to the new LRC.

 

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's a beautiful, cool and foggy morning here with a temp of 52.  Temps are expected to rise over 30 degrees today as some warm air pushes in.  Tomorrow it's back to great Fall weather with highs back in the low to mid 70s.

Love those type of mornings and the smells of the fresh air and moisture...out in the country where you are it is something I miss seeing.  

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 64/38 with a daily mean of 51.0 it was the coldest day since May 23rd there was no rain fall and there was 62% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 52 the official overnight low so far at GRR has been 51. There has been 0.02” of rain fall here and 0.03” at GRR. For today the average H/L remains at 71/50 the record high of 94 was in 2017 the record low of 29 was in 1950 and 1976. Today looks to be cloudy and cool with a chance of rain. At the current time it is cloudy and 53 here in MBY there is now some color showing up on some of the trees some nice yellow and yes some red as well.

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Love those type of mornings and the smells of the fresh air and moisture...out in the country where you are it is something I miss seeing.  

Sounds like you need a road trip, your always welcome to come visit.  Oct in Missouri CAN lol be the best weather anywhere.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I like the latest trends out here as there is one last hoorah for the official Monsoon season.  Some models are spitting out some decent moisture for the valley starting next Tue through the rest of the month.  Come on baby...I'm hoping PHX can record some more precip to break past normal for the season.

Meantime, Tropical Storm Ian has formed and I'm worried for my friends down in FL.  This blocking GL's HP is going to do some dirty work.  Not only are models increasingly showing colder temps around the GL's region for a longer period mid next week but that Big Block up Over The Top may stall out the storm over or near FL.  So much to digest over the next few days.  Should be fun tracking this potential major threat.

image.png

image.png

 

LR signals showing up in the GEFS/EPS that the BSR rule may come into fruition during the 1st week of OCT....my early call of a storm system tracking into the N Rockies around the 3rd-5th is showing up.  Should be an interesting start to the new LRC.

 

It's very exciting to see the start of a new weather pattern and hopefully it will be one that doesn't keep most of in drought or on the verge of drought.  A little early to draw any conclusions about this storm but a potentially wet storm in a blocked up pattern is a great way to start Oct!

image.thumb.gif.051514bd4cadfa5a8ab7d0bff9d9a76a.gif

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On 9/23/2022 at 2:20 PM, Tom said:

That post was not geared towards global warming or being political but rather how their personal wants/needs influence a forecast.  It’s a fine line when your a wx man/woman on TV and always pushing a warmer forecast in summer or less snowier one in the winter.  It must be hard for someone to be disciplined enough to exclude their preferences.  I see it happen a lot on this network and I’m sure there are other Mets around the country that do the same. It’s just human nature I guess. 

Fair enough.  My mistake.  I jumped to conclusions based on some of the other discussion on here from time to time.  What kind of crazy person is hoping for 90s in Chicago in September?  Sheesh.  My mom grew up in Texas, and remembers living there before A/C was a thing. (Can you imagine?)  She actually loves warm and hot weather now that she gets less of it in the Midwest.  But even she's ready for it to cool off.  

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DFw is at 84 currently but on its way to 75.  
That’s really nice for us. I’ll take 2nd helpings too!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Fair enough.  My mistake.  I jumped to conclusions based on some of the other discussion on here from time to time.  What kind of crazy person is hoping for 90s in Chicago in September?  Sheesh.  My mom grew up in Texas, and remembers living there before A/C was a thing. (Can you imagine?)  She actually loves warm and hot weather now that she gets less of it in the Midwest.  But even she's ready for it to cool off.  

I understand your moms love of heat but despite having nothing but a “swamp cooler” as a very young child I’m a refrigerated fan!   Totally spoiled. 
Like her, I’m so ready for cooler temps.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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