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2016 Spring/Summer Outlook


Tom

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Who's ready for Spring/Summer weather???  Pretty soon folks will be doing some spring cleaning, putting their boats in the water, and firing up their grills while enjoying some nice weather.  Latest long term guidance suggests Spring will come early this year compared to the last couple years.

 

Here is the JAMSTEC's March-May temp/precip forecast...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2016.1feb2016.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2016.1feb2016.gif

June-Aug...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1feb2016.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2016.1feb2016.gif

 

 

According to this year's LRC, I think this Spring there will be a lot of flooding rains in the Plains/Midwest regions.  Let's discuss what your thoughts are going forward.

 

CFSv2 maps below...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030118/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030118/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_1.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030118/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_2.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030118/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_2.png

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Here are the temps from the constructed analogs for Spring/Summer...

 

Spring...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cat2m_anom_0(15).gif

 

 

Summer...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cat2m_anom_3(9).gif

 

 

More signs pointing that we are heading towards a very active and warm spring and potentially hot summer this year.  Great boating season on tap???

 

Here is Scripps updated SST forecast in the central pacific.  Clearly, it is showing a La Nada, however, the CFSv2 is still advertising an El Nino..

 

Vhttp://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-03_for_2016-06.jpg

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030318/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_4.png

 

 

NMME has a developing La Nina by July...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016020800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_5.png

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Us Michiganders SO need a great boat-n-beach season! Been horribly missing the last (3) yrs, especially on the front end. Even last spring was too cloudy/rainy for the lakes to warm properly after the heavy ice! 2012 I don't need, but a bit above norms works wonders over here

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hoping for a lot of moisture this spring, so we don't have a summer 2012 repeat. This week will definitely have a surplus of rain for the Great Lakes and central Plains.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The trend for eastern Iowa over the last several years has been a benign to dry March, followed by a wet to very wet mid spring to early summer.  Of course, in none of those years were we coming out of a super nino.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NASA models update March outlook...

 

April/May/June...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

May/June/July...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

June/July/Aug...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

Seems to me like the model is portraying a wet pattern for the central Plains region.  Gary Lezak has been saying he is expecting a lot of storms this Spring/Summer for this same region according to the LRC.

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Some models suggest a cool summer for California while others don't.  La Nina often is cooler than normal.  It would be nice to have a summer similar to 2010/ 2011

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Here's that cool down Tom was mentioning around the 18th. Will see if it grows legs as we get closer. Imo, the region isn't done with winter weather yet.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Here's that cool down Tom was mentioning around the 18th. Will see if it grows legs as we get closer. Imo, the region isn't done with winter weather yet.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016030818/gfs_T2m_namer_40.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016030818/gfs_T2m_namer_44.png

Doesnt look far from normal considering the time of day those maps are showing..  

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Doesnt look far from normal considering the time of day those maps are showing..  

 

No it's below normal around that time.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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NASA models update March outlook...

 

April/May/June...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

May/June/July...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

June/July/Aug...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

Seems to me like the model is portraying a wet pattern for the central Plains region. Gary Lezak has been saying he is expecting a lot of storms this Spring/Summer for this same region according to the LRC.

Well, looks like I may not die of heatstroke this summer. That's always good to see.

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Good dumping of cold air coming right after St. Patty's Day.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016031000/gfs_T2ma_namer_36.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016031000/gem_T2ma_namer_36.png

How do the next 7 days look?

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How do the next 7 days look?

 

0z run was chilly through the 25th, 26th especially south in this area.

 

12z GFS is moving the cool down up to the 17th now.

 

 

GEM and GFS have a snow system for the region next Saturday.

 

GEFS showing below normal starting around the 8-12 days and continuing through day 16.

Kind of expected it after the polar vortex sent a lobe of itself onto this side of the globe.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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There is no question in my mind a cool down is coming and some snows where it does fall.  It will be interesting to see where it does snow if departures are as extreme on the cold side as they were on the warm side during this warm period.

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There is no question in my mind a cool down is coming and some snows where it does fall. It will be interesting to see where it does snow if departures are as extreme on the cold side as they were on the warm side during this warm period.

Cool down probably inevitable. Up to plus 7 for the month. The streaks will continue

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Cool down probably inevitable. Up to plus 7 for the month. The streaks will continue

 

Dang. Here it's like +1.5°. Those first 5 days were way below normal.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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00z Euro...showing the smattering of snow around St. Patty's Day near the Lakes.  Seems like over the past several years, there have been more colder days around this time of year.

 

Then the Euro showing a stronger Plains/Lakes cutter 18th-20th.

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12z GGEM...

 

Money said he would move from WI if that happened!  :lol:

 

GEFS agrees that the 6-10 day time period will start to cool.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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CPC updated April Outlook's...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif

 

 

 

April - June...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

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Euro Weeklies yesterday show the central CONUS cooling through the end of the month and keeps the below normal temp regime into mid April.  Teleconnections all support almost an opposite approach from what the 1st half of March delivered.  I think the later part of April is when the ridge pops and holds through a good part of May when summery weather will be in full effect.

 

The ridge that blossoms along the west coast is going to surge temps well into the 90's I bet around here...doh!  It almost gets to hot in the sun when temps surge past the lower 90's, esp mid/upper 90's.  We definitely need the moisture around here so I hope we get to see some troughs roll through in mid/late April when they usually tend to come off the Pacific.

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Euro Weeklies yesterday show the central CONUS cooling through the end of the month and keeps the below normal temp regime into mid April.  Teleconnections all support almost an opposite approach from what the 1st half of March delivered.  I think the later part of April is when the ridge pops and holds through a good part of May when summery weather will be in full effect.

 

The ridge that blossoms along the west coast is going to surge temps well into the 90's I bet around here...doh!  It almost gets to hot in the sun when temps surge past the lower 90's, esp mid/upper 90's.  We definitely need the moisture around here so I hope we get to see some troughs roll through in mid/late April when they usually tend to come off the Pacific.

 

How warm has it been in AZ?

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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How warm has it been in AZ?

80's and abundant sunshine have been the norm with a few days in the 70's...when i got here in Feb it was Hot and temps were in the low 90's!  We need the rain out here badly.  The fire season could get pretty bad and they are already talking about it if some troughs don't roll on through in April/May.

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Central Pacific up welling of colder waters about to hit the surface...

 

 

Bye, bye el Niño - don't let the door hit you on the way out! lol

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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2nd month of met spring to start off below normal for everyone in here.

At least that's the way it looks like today.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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2nd month of met spring to start off below normal for everyone in here.

At least that's the way it looks like today.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032400/gfs_T2ma_namer_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032400/gfs_T2ma_namer_37.png

Ya, no kidding, GEFS show the deepest negative anomalies right over North America during the first week of April in the Northern Hemisphere!  Talk about a complete collapse of the PV.

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JAMSTEC's recent March run still illustrating a very warm Spring.  After a very chill start to April, I would expect to see the pattern to flip come mid April.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2016.1mar2016.gif

 

 

Summer...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1mar2016.gif

 

JAMSTEC still seeing the La Nada developing during the summer months...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2016.1mar2016.gif

 

Then a weaker La Nina through the Autumn months...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1mar2016.gif

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1mar2016.gif

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I've noticed some interesting forecasts for this Summer up near the Arctic regions.  After a torchy season globally, some models are pointing towards below normal temps up near Siberia/Arctic this Summer.

 

Here is the CFSv2's take...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd4.gif

 

JAMSTEC...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1mar2016.gif

 

Wonder what implications this will have on ice cover up there this Summer.  

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