Tom Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 Who's ready for Spring/Summer weather??? Pretty soon folks will be doing some spring cleaning, putting their boats in the water, and firing up their grills while enjoying some nice weather. Latest long term guidance suggests Spring will come early this year compared to the last couple years. Here is the JAMSTEC's March-May temp/precip forecast... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2016.1feb2016.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2016.1feb2016.gifJune-Aug... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1feb2016.gif http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2016.1feb2016.gif According to this year's LRC, I think this Spring there will be a lot of flooding rains in the Plains/Midwest regions. Let's discuss what your thoughts are going forward. CFSv2 maps below... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030118/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030118/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_1.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030118/cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_2.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030118/cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_2.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted March 2, 2016 Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 Thanks Tom. Really interesting maps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2016 Here are the temps from the constructed analogs for Spring/Summer... Spring... http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cat2m_anom_0(15).gif Summer... http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/cat2m_anom_3(9).gif More signs pointing that we are heading towards a very active and warm spring and potentially hot summer this year. Great boating season on tap??? Here is Scripps updated SST forecast in the central pacific. Clearly, it is showing a La Nada, however, the CFSv2 is still advertising an El Nino.. Vhttp://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/fcst_gifs/fcst_made_2016-03_for_2016-06.jpg http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-mon/2016030318/cfs-mon_01_ssta_cpac_4.png NMME has a developing La Nina by July... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nmme/2016020800/nmme_ssta_noice_cpac_5.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 4, 2016 Report Share Posted March 4, 2016 Bring it on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 4, 2016 Report Share Posted March 4, 2016 Us Michiganders SO need a great boat-n-beach season! Been horribly missing the last (3) yrs, especially on the front end. Even last spring was too cloudy/rainy for the lakes to warm properly after the heavy ice! 2012 I don't need, but a bit above norms works wonders over here Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 6, 2016 Report Share Posted March 6, 2016 I'm ready for it! Looks like 50s and 60s this week. Im looking forward to t-storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 7, 2016 Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 Hoping for a lot of moisture this spring, so we don't have a summer 2012 repeat. This week will definitely have a surplus of rain for the Great Lakes and central Plains. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 7, 2016 Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 The trend for eastern Iowa over the last several years has been a benign to dry March, followed by a wet to very wet mid spring to early summer. Of course, in none of those years were we coming out of a super nino. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 NASA models update March outlook... April/May/June... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png May/June/July... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png June/July/Aug... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png Seems to me like the model is portraying a wet pattern for the central Plains region. Gary Lezak has been saying he is expecting a lot of storms this Spring/Summer for this same region according to the LRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest happ Posted March 8, 2016 Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 Some models suggest a cool summer for California while others don't. La Nina often is cooler than normal. It would be nice to have a summer similar to 2010/ 2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 9, 2016 Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 Here's that cool down Tom was mentioning around the 18th. Will see if it grows legs as we get closer. Imo, the region isn't done with winter weather yet. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 9, 2016 Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 Here's that cool down Tom was mentioning around the 18th. Will see if it grows legs as we get closer. Imo, the region isn't done with winter weather yet. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016030818/gfs_T2m_namer_40.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016030818/gfs_T2m_namer_44.pngDoesnt look far from normal considering the time of day those maps are showing.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 9, 2016 Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 Doesnt look far from normal considering the time of day those maps are showing.. No it's below normal around that time. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 9, 2016 Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 Yep below normal verbatim not much. Not gonna argue hour 276... Got more outside days ahead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 9, 2016 Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 NASA models update March outlook... April/May/June... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png May/June/July... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png June/July/Aug... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png Seems to me like the model is portraying a wet pattern for the central Plains region. Gary Lezak has been saying he is expecting a lot of storms this Spring/Summer for this same region according to the LRC.Well, looks like I may not die of heatstroke this summer. That's always good to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2016 Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 Good dumping of cold air coming right after St. Patty's Day. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 10, 2016 Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 Good dumping of cold air coming right after St. Patty's Day. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016031000/gfs_T2ma_namer_36.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016031000/gem_T2ma_namer_36.pngHow do the next 7 days look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2016 Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 How do the next 7 days look? 0z run was chilly through the 25th, 26th especially south in this area. 12z GFS is moving the cool down up to the 17th now. GEM and GFS have a snow system for the region next Saturday. GEFS showing below normal starting around the 8-12 days and continuing through day 16.Kind of expected it after the polar vortex sent a lobe of itself onto this side of the globe. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2016 Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 GEPS showing the same cool down timing. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 There is no question in my mind a cool down is coming and some snows where it does fall. It will be interesting to see where it does snow if departures are as extreme on the cold side as they were on the warm side during this warm period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 10, 2016 Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 There is no question in my mind a cool down is coming and some snows where it does fall. It will be interesting to see where it does snow if departures are as extreme on the cold side as they were on the warm side during this warm period.Cool down probably inevitable. Up to plus 7 for the month. The streaks will continue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2016 Report Share Posted March 11, 2016 Cool down probably inevitable. Up to plus 7 for the month. The streaks will continue Dang. Here it's like +1.5°. Those first 5 days were way below normal. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2016 Report Share Posted March 11, 2016 0z GFS is showing some upper Midwest snow between the 16-18th. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2016 00z Euro...showing the smattering of snow around St. Patty's Day near the Lakes. Seems like over the past several years, there have been more colder days around this time of year. Then the Euro showing a stronger Plains/Lakes cutter 18th-20th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2016 12z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2016 Report Share Posted March 11, 2016 12z GGEM... Money said he would move from WI if that happened! GEFS agrees that the 6-10 day time period will start to cool. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 Wx Bell's Summer Temp Outlook...a lot of models and met's betting on a very warm summer this year. http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/June_August_2016_Update.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 CPC updated April Outlook's... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif April - June... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2016 Euro Weeklies yesterday show the central CONUS cooling through the end of the month and keeps the below normal temp regime into mid April. Teleconnections all support almost an opposite approach from what the 1st half of March delivered. I think the later part of April is when the ridge pops and holds through a good part of May when summery weather will be in full effect. The ridge that blossoms along the west coast is going to surge temps well into the 90's I bet around here...doh! It almost gets to hot in the sun when temps surge past the lower 90's, esp mid/upper 90's. We definitely need the moisture around here so I hope we get to see some troughs roll through in mid/late April when they usually tend to come off the Pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 19, 2016 Report Share Posted March 19, 2016 Euro Weeklies yesterday show the central CONUS cooling through the end of the month and keeps the below normal temp regime into mid April. Teleconnections all support almost an opposite approach from what the 1st half of March delivered. I think the later part of April is when the ridge pops and holds through a good part of May when summery weather will be in full effect. The ridge that blossoms along the west coast is going to surge temps well into the 90's I bet around here...doh! It almost gets to hot in the sun when temps surge past the lower 90's, esp mid/upper 90's. We definitely need the moisture around here so I hope we get to see some troughs roll through in mid/late April when they usually tend to come off the Pacific. How warm has it been in AZ? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2016 How warm has it been in AZ?80's and abundant sunshine have been the norm with a few days in the 70's...when i got here in Feb it was Hot and temps were in the low 90's! We need the rain out here badly. The fire season could get pretty bad and they are already talking about it if some troughs don't roll on through in April/May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 Central Pacific up welling of colder waters about to hit the surface... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Report Share Posted March 22, 2016 Central Pacific up welling of colder waters about to hit the surface... Bye, bye el Niño - don't let the door hit you on the way out! lol 3 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 22, 2016 Report Share Posted March 22, 2016 Bye, bye el Niño - don't let the door hit you on the way out! lolThanks for coming 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 23, 2016 Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Bye, bye el Niño - don't let the door hit you on the way out! lolHaha! :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 2nd month of met spring to start off below normal for everyone in here.At least that's the way it looks like today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 24, 2016 Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Sounds good to me Geos! Hope everyone up there has enjoyed their recent winter storm! Looks like I may have a good severe season starting up down here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 2nd month of met spring to start off below normal for everyone in here.At least that's the way it looks like today. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032400/gfs_T2ma_namer_34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016032400/gfs_T2ma_namer_37.pngYa, no kidding, GEFS show the deepest negative anomalies right over North America during the first week of April in the Northern Hemisphere! Talk about a complete collapse of the PV. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 JAMSTEC's recent March run still illustrating a very warm Spring. After a very chill start to April, I would expect to see the pattern to flip come mid April. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2016.1mar2016.gif Summer... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1mar2016.gif JAMSTEC still seeing the La Nada developing during the summer months... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.JJA2016.1mar2016.gif Then a weaker La Nina through the Autumn months... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1mar2016.gifhttp://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1mar2016.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 I've noticed some interesting forecasts for this Summer up near the Arctic regions. After a torchy season globally, some models are pointing towards below normal temps up near Siberia/Arctic this Summer. Here is the CFSv2's take... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbT2mSeaInd4.gif JAMSTEC... http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1mar2016.gif Wonder what implications this will have on ice cover up there this Summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.