Jump to content

2016 Spring/Summer Outlook


Tom

Recommended Posts

I've noticed some interesting forecasts for this Summer up near the Arctic regions.  After a torchy season globally, some models are pointing towards below normal temps up near Siberia/Arctic this Summer.

 

Here is the CFSv2's take...

 

 

JAMSTEC...

 

 

Wonder what implications this will have on ice cover up there this Summer.  

 

Ice cover would hang on longer. Slower annual melting of the polar ice cap is likely. Colder Arctic Ocean will be the negative feedback.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

NASA updated their seasonal forecast...

Here is the June-Aug period...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

 

Looks wet in the bread basket of the nation right where it has been real dry of late.

 

July - Sept...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png

 

 

 

What's rather peculiar is that not only does the CFSv2, but the NASA model keeping the Arctic regions below normal through Spring/Summer and into early Fall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20160405_usdm_home.png

Here is the latest ECMWF SST forecast for JJA...courtesy JB

 

Is the CFSv2 off its rocker???  Still showing a Nino in the central Pacific.

 the latest drought monitor shows drought conditions spreading north to Nebraska.  Dry as a bone here.  Thank god for the the blizzard in February.  

 

Tom, I sure hope the NASA forecast verifies for the Central Plains

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

20160405_usdm_home.png

the latest drought monitor shows drought conditions spreading north to Nebraska. Dry as a bone here. Thank god for the the blizzard in February.

 

Tom, I sure hope the NASA forecast verifies for the Central Plains[/quot

 

As soon as the Pacific jet starts cutting underneath the blocking in Canada, most model suggests a wetter pattern east of the Rockies Week 2 and beyond. Trough gets established in the West which usually ushers in storms near the Rockies and brings your region moisture.

 

Btw, I know the feeling when it's bone dry. Ever since I got here in AZ it hasn't rained one drop. Finally, we got some rain last night and you can smell the moisture in the air! Very refreshing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pacific NW, northern Rockies really improved. Still have that warm pool of water off the West Coast right now.

 

Looking in the long range for this month, I see some warm days, but nothing consistent. Great Lakes are going to stay with the negative departure this month most likely. Keeping my finger crossed that May is closer to normal.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...

Latest NASA model update for the summer months...this model is seeing a cool summer in the Plains/Midwest, right in the heartland of the U.S.  Anyone to the west or east looks warm.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest NASA model update for the summer months...this model is seeing a cool summer in the Plains/Midwest, right in the heartland of the U.S.  Anyone to the west or east looks warm.

 

 

 

 

That doesn't make sense for a developing la Nina though. Must be something else at work if it turns out cool/near normal like that.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That doesn't make sense for a developing la Nina though. Must be something else at work if it turns out cool/near normal like that.

It does sorta fit this year's LRC though.  Let's see how it all plays out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JAMSTEC still indicating a warm, if not, hot summer for most of sub forum, except for the southern plains...(right over OKCwx!)

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1may2016.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2016.1may2016.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JAMSTEC still indicating a warm, if not, hot summer for most of sub forum, except for the southern plains...(right over OKCwx!)

 

 

 

Negative feedback for the continuing wet conditions it looks like. Humid summer coming up.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Negative feedback for the continuing wet conditions it looks like. Humid summer coming up.

Last summer was superb, a little drier with temps in low 80's and 70's most of the time.  I think we will see more moisture this summer and the likelihood of humidity is on the table.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JAMSTEC still indicating a warm, if not, hot summer for most of sub forum, except for the southern plains...(right over OKCwx!)

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.JJA2016.1may2016.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.JJA2016.1may2016.gif

 

Africa looks toasty everywhere! Wonder if they ever have below normal or down right cold season(s)?? I look at places in the S. Hemi. to see who's having a cold winter down under, and it does not look like too many places are expecting one except central portions of S. America. Seems like we've owned that label the past few years (not this winter Captain Obvious!). Thoughts?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We don't necessarily have a thread for Hurricane season, however, for those planning on vacations down near the Gulf states need to pay attention for developing Hurricanes this summer.  As is typical during developing La Nina's, the Atlantic and GOM can be a hot spot for Hurricanes near FL or states nearby. 

 

This year's LRC has the area outlined in the hot spot this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Africa looks toasty everywhere! Wonder if they ever have below normal or down right cold season(s)?? I look at places in the S. Hemi. to see who's having a cold winter down under, and it does not look like too many places are expecting one except central portions of S. America. Seems like we've owned that label the past few years (not this winter Captain Obvious!). Thoughts?

These maps have basically looked the same every month for years. Thus the reason why the planet is breaking records every month and year for warmest temps. It's really easy to see why when you look at these global temp maps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

I chased in southwest Kansas last night south of Dodge City. Saw probably 10 tornadoes, although it was hard to keep track with tornadoes dropping and lifting. Even had 3 on the ground at the same time from the same storm! I'll post some pics when I get a chance to do some edits. Will be out again tomorrow in northern Kansas as it looks like it could be another big day

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I chased in southwest Kansas last night south of Dodge City. Saw probably 10 tornadoes, although it was hard to keep track with tornadoes dropping and lifting. Even had 3 on the ground at the same time from the same storm! I'll post some pics when I get a chance to do some edits. Will be out again tomorrow in northern Kansas as it looks like it could be another big day

Did you get to see the Bennington-chapman wedge today?

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did you get to see the Bennington-chapman wedge today?

 

No :angry: When we came home Tuesday night, we were unsure of whether to go out. The models showed some potential, but the SPC wasn't too optimistic initially for the days chances. I woke up and saw the 2% and figured it would be a good day to rest and to go into work since I knew I would be going out Thursday. So I kind of stopped looking at things for the day Wednesday. When I finally did look again, I saw the mesoscale discussion for Kansas, etc. Almost pulled the trigger, but again chose to stay home. Well the rest is history..... Sucks too, because we probably could have made it down there in time if we had left when I saw the mesoscale discussion about the tornado watch.

Of course we chased yesterday with the moderate risk and 15% hatched tornado risk area and saw absolutely nothing as did everyone else. What a horrible day yesterday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

NASA's June updated Outlook for mid/late Summer...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

HOT SUMMER...bust? I won't complain about a normal season though if it goes that way. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The central ridge really gets squashed in the medium range.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The central ridge really gets squashed in the medium range.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060712/gfs_z500a_namer_18.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016060712/gfs_z500a_namer_29.png

That's a good change from the other day. Really not ready for a heat dome yet. Save it for July or August.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's a good change from the other day. Really not ready for a heat dome yet. Save it for July or August.

 

Yeah it looks like it cools off a bit in your region.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

@ TWC's take.   Honestly, whether tele's support it or not, that's been the feel so far and would tend to agree with them. I doubt the trend towards warmer than normal reverses at this point. If anything it we haven't "peaked" yet wrt the heat

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Hard to imagine the Plains to be that cool for the remainder of Summer according to the updated July run of the NASA model...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It would be typical of a emerging first year la Niña to have a big persistent ridge over the nation's mid section. I suspect the warmth will stretch into September quite a ways. 

Question is how dry or wet will it be. Been pretty dry around here, locally at least.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...

/\  love the gauges!  /\

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Looks like summer will stretch its wings right into the Autumn season (Thursday September 22nd, 2016 @ 10:31am I believe). Fall will take a leave of absence for the time being. I guess we all should enjoy this wonderful, warm weather, because who knows what kind of a rough winter might be headed our way for some of us on this forum, if not, all of us.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...