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Spring/Summer 2016 Severe Weather Thread


hlcater

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b815b7c5accb5d6f7c7c06d03e775f33.png

 

With our potential first severe weather threat on the horizon I decided to start a thread dedicated to smaller scale severe weather events that aren't large enough for a dedicated thread to themselves during the spring/summer timeframe.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Will have to watch IL and IN south of I-80 tomorrow night for severe weather. 

 

 

SPC AC 141700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...MUCH
OF IL AND INDIANA...WRN OH AND SWRN LOWER MI...NRN KY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM EASTERN IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND INDIANA...WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WESTERN OHIO. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS WELL.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MO AND MID-MS RIVER
VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM SRN MANITOBA TO KANSAS
CITY...AND WILL TILT NEWD TO A WRN WI TO CNTRL IL LINE BY 00Z. AHEAD
OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MID TO
UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS NWD TO A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL EXIST ACROSS
SRN WI INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 00Z. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY
MOIST...COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND AMPLE LIFT SHOULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...ERN IA...IL...IND...WRN OH...SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI...NRN KY...
ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUE MORNING FROM CNTRL IA INTO WRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION WITH AN INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...DESTABILIZATION WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WITH LIFT
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...AND NRN IL.
THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...AS WELL
AS INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE FAVORABLY TIMED DURING PEAK HEATING.
VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY FAVOR
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. THIS...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...WILL STRONGLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS APPEARS LIKELY...POSSIBLY LARGER DEPENDING ON ACTUAL MOISTURE
LEVELS.

IN ADDITION TO HAIL...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER FAR ERN IA...NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI...ON THE EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND ALSO ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH
WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SRN WI/NRN IL. HERE...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR TO TORNADO
THREAT WILL AGAIN BE MOISTURE LEVELS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSIST
AS THE LOBE OF ASCENT EJECTS NEWD INTO SRN LOWER MI AND WRN
OH...ALBEIT WITH DWINDLING INSTABILITY.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
GENERALLY S OF THE OH RIVER...OR S OF THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WHERE A
STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST. BOTH RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
WITH SRN EXTENT.

..JEWELL.. 03/14/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1854Z (1:54PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Will have to watch IL and IN south of I-80 tomorrow night for severe weather. 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1457981668570

 

SPC AC 141700

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1200 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016

 

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...MUCH

OF IL AND INDIANA...WRN OH AND SWRN LOWER MI...NRN KY...

 

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE

SLIGHT RISK AREA...

 

...SUMMARY...

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM EASTERN IOWA ACROSS MUCH OF

ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND INDIANA...WITH MORE ISOLATED

ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND

WESTERN OHIO. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH AN

ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS WELL.

 

...SYNOPSIS...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MO AND MID-MS RIVER

VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES

AND LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW

PRESSURE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM SRN MANITOBA TO KANSAS

CITY...AND WILL TILT NEWD TO A WRN WI TO CNTRL IL LINE BY 00Z. AHEAD

OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MID TO

UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS NWD TO A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL EXIST ACROSS

SRN WI INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 00Z. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY

MOIST...COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND AMPLE LIFT SHOULD

RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUE

AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 

...ERN IA...IL...IND...WRN OH...SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI...NRN KY...

ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE

POSSIBLE TUE MORNING FROM CNTRL IA INTO WRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH WARM

ADVECTION WITH AN INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. IN THE WAKE OF THIS

ACTIVITY...DESTABILIZATION WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WITH LIFT

INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...AND NRN IL.

THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...AS WELL

AS INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE FAVORABLY TIMED DURING PEAK HEATING.

VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY FAVOR

SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. THIS...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES

ALOFT...WILL STRONGLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF

BALLS APPEARS LIKELY...POSSIBLY LARGER DEPENDING ON ACTUAL MOISTURE

LEVELS.

 

IN ADDITION TO HAIL...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT

OVER FAR ERN IA...NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI...ON THE EDGE OF THE

LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND ALSO ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH

WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SRN WI/NRN IL. HERE...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH

CURVATURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR TO TORNADO

THREAT WILL AGAIN BE MOISTURE LEVELS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSIST

AS THE LOBE OF ASCENT EJECTS NEWD INTO SRN LOWER MI AND WRN

OH...ALBEIT WITH DWINDLING INSTABILITY.

 

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED

GENERALLY S OF THE OH RIVER...OR S OF THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WHERE A

STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST. BOTH RAPIDLY VEERING WINDS

IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE

WITH SRN EXTENT.

 

..JEWELL.. 03/14/2016

 

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

 

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

CURRENT UTC TIME: 1854Z (1:54PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

 

I doubt severe here, but if you've been monitoring the hi-res and local RPM models, still seems like a squall line might pack a punch tomorrow evening from Chicagoland up to nearly Lake Winnebago.

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I doubt severe here, but if you've been monitoring the hi-res and local RPM models, still seems like a squall line might pack a punch tomorrow evening from Chicagoland up to nearly Lake Winnebago.

 

Now the 0z NAM backed off on convection this far east and slowed everything up. Some cells left over near the low, but nothing to speak of this far south.

 

This is at 1am. Not the best timing.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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0z GFS also slower with dewpoints getting into the high 50s south of Chicago.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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CFSv2 forecasting a colder than normal Week 2-4 in their weeklies over the last few days something I have not seen by the model do last Fall and this past winter.  West coast bakes and the central states look cool.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160313.NAsfcT.gif\

 

 

Week 3 & 4...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160313.NAsfcT.gif

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CFSv2 forecasting a colder than normal Week 2-4 in their weeklies over the last few days something I have not seen by the model do last Fall and this past winter.  West coast bakes and the central states look cool.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160313.NAsfcT.gif\

 

 

Week 3 & 4...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160313.NAsfcT.gif

LOL oozing excitement.  1 degree below normal will get us into the 40s and 50s in week 4

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I've been watching that month yet. BTW GoSaints, that's in °K or °C. 

You're looking at -2.2° - -3.6° for you during weeks 2-4.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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LOL oozing excitement.  1 degree below normal will get us into the 40s and 50s in week 4

Your missing the point of the entire comment I made...the point was, I haven not seen the CFSv2 make a forecast over the last 5+ months for a 3 week period showing cooler than normal temps.  I get a kick out of your reactions sometimes to my comments.  40's/50's don't do me any good and that is the reason why I head out west after true winter conditions are over.

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Your missing the point of the entire comment I made...the point was, I haven not seen the CFSv2 make a forecast over the last 5+ months for a 3 week period showing cooler than normal temps.  I get a kick out of your reactions sometimes to my comments.  40's/50's don't do me any good and that is the reason why I head out west after true winter conditions are over.

I get a kick out yours as well.....  Victories have been much harder to come by this winter

 

I've been watching that month yet. BTW GoSaints, that's in °K or °C. 

You're looking at -2.2° - -3.6° for you during weeks 2-4.

week 3 -2.2--3.6  week 2 and 4 -1--2.2.... brrrr

 

GEFS above normal week 2

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I thought this thread title was severe wx?? Anyways, for all you severe freaks, the trend looks promising. Looking like severe (when we get it) wants to over-perform the ingredients. I will sometimes follow along but really, I no longer open any invitations to severe parties for mby..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I thought this thread title was severe wx?? Anyways, for all you severe freaks, the trend looks promising. Looking like severe (when we get it) wants to over-perform the ingredients. I will sometimes follow along but really, I no longer open any invitations to severe parties for mby..

Oops!  Sorry, wrong thread...maybe Geo's can move it.

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I get a kick out yours as well.....  Victories have been much harder to come by this winter

 

week 3 -2.2--3.6  week 2 and 4 -1--2.2.... brrrr

 

GEFS above normal week 2

 

 

The point is you'll most likely have some pretty cool days mixed with some near normal. Don't put away the coats yet. I haven't.  

 

But let's move this talk to the March topic.

 

HRRR showing storms popping around 4pm in MO.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Anyone south of I-80 in IL and extreme western IN should pay attention tonight. High resolution models depicting storms with tornadic potential tonight.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Couple tornado warnings now.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dvn&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

ILC109-160000-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160316T0000Z/
MCDONOUGH IL-
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
MCDONOUGH COUNTY...

AT 632 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUSHNELL...OR 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF MACOMB...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PRAIRIE CITY AROUND 640 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE WALNUT
GROVE...ARGYLE LAKE STATE PARK...PRAIRIE CITY AIRPORT...SPRING LAKE...
MCDONOUGH COUNTY 4-H GROUNDS...SCOTTSBURG AND MACOMB MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4039 9088 4056 9090 4063 9060 4063 9045
4046 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 249DEG 42KT 4060 9058

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.50IN

$

ERVIN
 

 

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
ILC109-187-160015-
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0005.160315T2329Z-160316T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN MCDONOUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 628 PM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER GOOD
HOPE...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF MACOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...
LITTLE SWAN LAKE AROUND 650 PM CDT.
PRAIRIE CITY AROUND 655 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
YOUNGSTOWN...WALNUT GROVE...SCOTTSBURG...PRAIRIE CITY AIRPORT...GREENBUSH
AND SWAN CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 9079 4083 9044 4058 9045 4053 9069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 239DEG 22KT 4059 9067

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$

ERVIN

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Surprised to see so many Tornado warnings popping up in W IL/E IA right now...crazy looking cells erupting...

 

I don't think they'll last being severe east of Rockford very far. Only 40s over Lake County right now. 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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You're getting a decent thunder and lightning show at least, aren't you?  I am myself for the 2nd time this month.

 

Yeah. Had some small pea sized hail too. A lot of lightning.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016032418_168_38.75--86.5.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160324/18Z/f168/700mbrv.png

 

 

 

 

 

fwiw, 18z GFS had a pretty interesting sounding for S. Indiana and Kentucky on day 7. Could be something to keep an eye on, shear looks impressive to my untrained eye.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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  • 5 weeks later...

GFS brought out the big guns for the 12z run for Tuesday.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016042312/084/sbcape.us_c.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016042312/084/sfctd_b.us_c.png

 

 

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016042312_084_36.0--97.0.png

 

Tons of instability and ample shear with a decent veering profile in the 0-3km AGL region. Looks like a classic big outbreak on the GFS. Probably a tad overdone, but since other models are showing something similar, this is very well looking like a decent event at the very least.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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^Could be a big day for severe weather in the plains.

 

CAPE on the NAM for Monday.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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CentralNeb and some of our members in S/SE NE may be in the heart of the severe wx outbreak tomorrow...

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/day2otlk_0600-640x436.gif

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/1-8.gif

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Surprised no high risk was issued, though I'm sure they will have one over KS/OK tomorrow. Going to get wild around here. JC, you think they will upgrade lincoln to the moderate risk?

They sighted that low level windfields were somewhat of a limiting factor at 15-20kts, and that directly precluded the high risk. However there is also some veer-back-veer in the mid levels that could also lead to some locally messy storm modes. However I am unsure what the impact of the latter will be on the event. If the low level windfields strengthen I could see them pulling the trigger on a high risk from the triple point and areas southward to S KS/N OK.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Surprised no high risk was issued, though I'm sure they will have one over KS/OK tomorrow. Going to get wild around here. JC, you think they will upgrade lincoln to the moderate risk?

I think it depends on where they think the front will line up, it farther north, yes, if not, probably stay where its at or slightly farther south and west

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1" dia. hail fell in Chicago tonight. No doubt there is some dented cars from it.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Local TV meteorologist that I trust said today could be a bust forecast wise depending on where the warm front and triple point set up.  He thinks it will be in Northern Kansas for the worst storms, then those would move north into Nebraska.  I am also concerned about hail and where the dry line will be.  I am going to be close, but hoping that tornadoes and hail stay away.  Many chances of rain later in the week and the weekend might be a complete soaker.  Hopefully I can get the yard mowed today before storms hit.

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