hlcater Posted March 5, 2016 Report Share Posted March 5, 2016 With our potential first severe weather threat on the horizon I decided to start a thread dedicated to smaller scale severe weather events that aren't large enough for a dedicated thread to themselves during the spring/summer timeframe. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 14, 2016 Report Share Posted March 14, 2016 Will have to watch IL and IN south of I-80 tomorrow night for severe weather. SPC AC 141700DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1200 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016VALID 151200Z - 161200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...MUCHOF IL AND INDIANA...WRN OH AND SWRN LOWER MI...NRN KY......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THESLIGHT RISK AREA......SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM EASTERN IOWA ACROSS MUCH OFILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND INDIANA...WITH MORE ISOLATEDACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ANDWESTERN OHIO. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ANISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS WELL....SYNOPSIS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MO AND MID-MS RIVERVALLEYS DURING THE DAY...AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATESAND LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOWPRESSURE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM SRN MANITOBA TO KANSASCITY...AND WILL TILT NEWD TO A WRN WI TO CNTRL IL LINE BY 00Z. AHEADOF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MID TOUPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS NWD TO A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL EXIST ACROSSSRN WI INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 00Z. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLYMOIST...COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND AMPLE LIFT SHOULDRESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUEAFTERNOON AND EVENING....ERN IA...IL...IND...WRN OH...SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI...NRN KY...ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BEPOSSIBLE TUE MORNING FROM CNTRL IA INTO WRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH WARMADVECTION WITH AN INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. IN THE WAKE OF THISACTIVITY...DESTABILIZATION WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WITH LIFTINCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...AND NRN IL.THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...AS WELLAS INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE FAVORABLY TIMED DURING PEAK HEATING.VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY FAVORSUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. THIS...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATESALOFT...WILL STRONGLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS APPEARS LIKELY...POSSIBLY LARGER DEPENDING ON ACTUAL MOISTURELEVELS.IN ADDITION TO HAIL...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUTOVER FAR ERN IA...NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI...ON THE EDGE OF THELOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND ALSO ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICHWILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SRN WI/NRN IL. HERE...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHCURVATURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR TO TORNADOTHREAT WILL AGAIN BE MOISTURE LEVELS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSISTAS THE LOBE OF ASCENT EJECTS NEWD INTO SRN LOWER MI AND WRNOH...ALBEIT WITH DWINDLING INSTABILITY.ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITEDGENERALLY S OF THE OH RIVER...OR S OF THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WHERE ASTRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST. BOTH RAPIDLY VEERING WINDSIN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGEWITH SRN EXTENT...JEWELL.. 03/14/2016CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCTNOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600ZCURRENT UTC TIME: 1854Z (1:54PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 Will have to watch IL and IN south of I-80 tomorrow night for severe weather. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1457981668570 SPC AC 141700 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1200 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2016 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...MUCHOF IL AND INDIANA...WRN OH AND SWRN LOWER MI...NRN KY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THESLIGHT RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM EASTERN IOWA ACROSS MUCH OFILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND INDIANA...WITH MORE ISOLATEDACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ANDWESTERN OHIO. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ANISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE AS WELL. ...SYNOPSIS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MO AND MID-MS RIVERVALLEYS DURING THE DAY...AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATESAND LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOWPRESSURE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM SRN MANITOBA TO KANSASCITY...AND WILL TILT NEWD TO A WRN WI TO CNTRL IL LINE BY 00Z. AHEADOF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH...SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING MID TOUPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS NWD TO A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL EXIST ACROSSSRN WI INTO SWRN LOWER MI AROUND 00Z. ALTHOUGH NOT PARTICULARLYMOIST...COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND AMPLE LIFT SHOULDRESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUEAFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...ERN IA...IL...IND...WRN OH...SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI...NRN KY...ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BEPOSSIBLE TUE MORNING FROM CNTRL IA INTO WRN IL ASSOCIATED WITH WARMADVECTION WITH AN INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. IN THE WAKE OF THISACTIVITY...DESTABILIZATION WILL ENSUE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW WITH LIFTINCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN IA...SRN WI...AND NRN IL.THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...AS WELLAS INCREASED SFC CONVERGENCE FAVORABLY TIMED DURING PEAK HEATING.VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY FAVORSUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. THIS...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATESALOFT...WILL STRONGLY FAVOR LARGE HAIL. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS APPEARS LIKELY...POSSIBLY LARGER DEPENDING ON ACTUAL MOISTURELEVELS. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUTOVER FAR ERN IA...NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI...ON THE EDGE OF THELOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND ALSO ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICHWILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SRN WI/NRN IL. HERE...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHCURVATURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAIN MITIGATING FACTOR TO TORNADOTHREAT WILL AGAIN BE MOISTURE LEVELS. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD PERSISTAS THE LOBE OF ASCENT EJECTS NEWD INTO SRN LOWER MI AND WRNOH...ALBEIT WITH DWINDLING INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITEDGENERALLY S OF THE OH RIVER...OR S OF THE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WHERE ASTRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST. BOTH RAPIDLY VEERING WINDSIN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGEWITH SRN EXTENT. ..JEWELL.. 03/14/2016 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600ZCURRENT UTC TIME: 1854Z (1:54PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME I doubt severe here, but if you've been monitoring the hi-res and local RPM models, still seems like a squall line might pack a punch tomorrow evening from Chicagoland up to nearly Lake Winnebago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 I doubt severe here, but if you've been monitoring the hi-res and local RPM models, still seems like a squall line might pack a punch tomorrow evening from Chicagoland up to nearly Lake Winnebago. Now the 0z NAM backed off on convection this far east and slowed everything up. Some cells left over near the low, but nothing to speak of this far south. This is at 1am. Not the best timing. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 0z GFS also slower with dewpoints getting into the high 50s south of Chicago. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 Severe wx risk for today Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 Anybody following the CFSv2 trends for April??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201604.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 CFSv2 forecasting a colder than normal Week 2-4 in their weeklies over the last few days something I have not seen by the model do last Fall and this past winter. West coast bakes and the central states look cool. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160313.NAsfcT.gif\ Week 3 & 4... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160313.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 CFSv2 forecasting a colder than normal Week 2-4 in their weeklies over the last few days something I have not seen by the model do last Fall and this past winter. West coast bakes and the central states look cool. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160313.NAsfcT.gif\ Week 3 & 4... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160313.NAsfcT.gifLOL oozing excitement. 1 degree below normal will get us into the 40s and 50s in week 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 I've been watching that month yet. BTW GoSaints, that's in °K or °C. You're looking at -2.2° - -3.6° for you during weeks 2-4. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 LOL oozing excitement. 1 degree below normal will get us into the 40s and 50s in week 4Your missing the point of the entire comment I made...the point was, I haven not seen the CFSv2 make a forecast over the last 5+ months for a 3 week period showing cooler than normal temps. I get a kick out of your reactions sometimes to my comments. 40's/50's don't do me any good and that is the reason why I head out west after true winter conditions are over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 Your missing the point of the entire comment I made...the point was, I haven not seen the CFSv2 make a forecast over the last 5+ months for a 3 week period showing cooler than normal temps. I get a kick out of your reactions sometimes to my comments. 40's/50's don't do me any good and that is the reason why I head out west after true winter conditions are over.I get a kick out yours as well..... Victories have been much harder to come by this winter I've been watching that month yet. BTW GoSaints, that's in °K or °C. You're looking at -2.2° - -3.6° for you during weeks 2-4.week 3 -2.2--3.6 week 2 and 4 -1--2.2.... brrrr GEFS above normal week 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 I thought this thread title was severe wx?? Anyways, for all you severe freaks, the trend looks promising. Looking like severe (when we get it) wants to over-perform the ingredients. I will sometimes follow along but really, I no longer open any invitations to severe parties for mby.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 I thought this thread title was severe wx?? Anyways, for all you severe freaks, the trend looks promising. Looking like severe (when we get it) wants to over-perform the ingredients. I will sometimes follow along but really, I no longer open any invitations to severe parties for mby..Oops! Sorry, wrong thread...maybe Geo's can move it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 I get a kick out yours as well..... Victories have been much harder to come by this winter week 3 -2.2--3.6 week 2 and 4 -1--2.2.... brrrr GEFS above normal week 2 The point is you'll most likely have some pretty cool days mixed with some near normal. Don't put away the coats yet. I haven't. But let's move this talk to the March topic. HRRR showing storms popping around 4pm in MO. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 Anyone south of I-80 in IL and extreme western IN should pay attention tonight. High resolution models depicting storms with tornadic potential tonight. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 Severe T-storm warnings in extreme NE MO, Keokuk, and western IL now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 15, 2016 Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 Couple tornado warnings now. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dvn&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL633 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016ILC109-160000-/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160316T0000Z/MCDONOUGH IL-633 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTHERNMCDONOUGH COUNTY...AT 632 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUSHNELL...OR 10MILES NORTHEAST OF MACOMB...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGETO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...PRAIRIE CITY AROUND 640 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE WALNUTGROVE...ARGYLE LAKE STATE PARK...PRAIRIE CITY AIRPORT...SPRING LAKE...MCDONOUGH COUNTY 4-H GROUNDS...SCOTTSBURG AND MACOMB MUNICIPALAIRPORT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO ABASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...ORIN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 4039 9088 4056 9090 4063 9060 4063 90454046 9045TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 249DEG 42KT 4060 9058TORNADO...OBSERVEDHAIL...1.50IN$ERVIN Tornado WarningTORNADO WARNINGILC109-187-160015-/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0005.160315T2329Z-160316T0015Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL629 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHEASTERN MCDONOUGH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 715 PM CDT* AT 628 PM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER GOODHOPE...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF MACOMB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREEDAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...LITTLE SWAN LAKE AROUND 650 PM CDT.PRAIRIE CITY AROUND 655 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEYOUNGSTOWN...WALNUT GROVE...SCOTTSBURG...PRAIRIE CITY AIRPORT...GREENBUSHAND SWAN CREEK.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO ABASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...ORIN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 4061 9079 4083 9044 4058 9045 4053 9069TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 239DEG 22KT 4059 9067TORNADO...OBSERVEDHAIL...<.75IN$ERVIN Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 Clear funnel west of Springfield. https://tvnweather.com/live/chasers/847783531 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 Surprised to see so many Tornado warnings popping up in W IL/E IA right now...crazy looking cells erupting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 Surprised to see so many Tornado warnings popping up in W IL/E IA right now...crazy looking cells erupting... I don't think they'll last being severe east of Rockford very far. Only 40s over Lake County right now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 I doubt very seriously that we will make it another severe season without a high risk day. A long spring is fine with me down here. Whatever keeps the heat of summer at bay longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 I don't think they'll last being severe east of Rockford very far. Only 40s over Lake County right now. You're getting a decent thunder and lightning show at least, aren't you? I am myself for the 2nd time this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 You're getting a decent thunder and lightning show at least, aren't you? I am myself for the 2nd time this month. Yeah. Had some small pea sized hail too. A lot of lightning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 16, 2016 Report Share Posted March 16, 2016 Illinois has been the hot spot for early Spring Tornado's over the past 2 years. I remember last year's monster F-4 near Rochelle, IL back in early April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2016 http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016032418_168_38.75--86.5.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160324/18Z/f168/700mbrv.png fwiw, 18z GFS had a pretty interesting sounding for S. Indiana and Kentucky on day 7. Could be something to keep an eye on, shear looks impressive to my untrained eye. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 GFS brought out the big guns for the 12z run for Tuesday. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016042312/084/sbcape.us_c.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016042312/084/sfctd_b.us_c.png http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/gfs_2016042312_084_36.0--97.0.png Tons of instability and ample shear with a decent veering profile in the 0-3km AGL region. Looks like a classic big outbreak on the GFS. Probably a tad overdone, but since other models are showing something similar, this is very well looking like a decent event at the very least. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 ^Could be a big day for severe weather in the plains. CAPE on the NAM for Monday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 I'd better buckle up and get ready I guess. Looks like it might get a little wild down here this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 25, 2016 Report Share Posted April 25, 2016 CentralNeb and some of our members in S/SE NE may be in the heart of the severe wx outbreak tomorrow... http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/day2otlk_0600-640x436.gif http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/1-8.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 25, 2016 Report Share Posted April 25, 2016 updated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 25, 2016 Report Share Posted April 25, 2016 Surprised no high risk was issued, though I'm sure they will have one over KS/OK tomorrow. Going to get wild around here. JC, you think they will upgrade lincoln to the moderate risk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2016 Surprised no high risk was issued, though I'm sure they will have one over KS/OK tomorrow. Going to get wild around here. JC, you think they will upgrade lincoln to the moderate risk?They sighted that low level windfields were somewhat of a limiting factor at 15-20kts, and that directly precluded the high risk. However there is also some veer-back-veer in the mid levels that could also lead to some locally messy storm modes. However I am unsure what the impact of the latter will be on the event. If the low level windfields strengthen I could see them pulling the trigger on a high risk from the triple point and areas southward to S KS/N OK. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 25, 2016 Report Share Posted April 25, 2016 Surprised no high risk was issued, though I'm sure they will have one over KS/OK tomorrow. Going to get wild around here. JC, you think they will upgrade lincoln to the moderate risk?I think it depends on where they think the front will line up, it farther north, yes, if not, probably stay where its at or slightly farther south and west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 25, 2016 Report Share Posted April 25, 2016 Storms in the area are dropping marble sized hail - fyi. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 25, 2016 Report Share Posted April 25, 2016 I think it depends on where they think the front will line up, it farther north, yes, if not, probably stay where its at or slightly farther south and westNAM is screaming that S/SE Nebraska is the spot to be tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 26, 2016 Report Share Posted April 26, 2016 1" dia. hail fell in Chicago tonight. No doubt there is some dented cars from it. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 26, 2016 Report Share Posted April 26, 2016 I'm more worried about hail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 26, 2016 Report Share Posted April 26, 2016 Doesn't look good here. HRRR keeps the bulk to our south and east. Convection must've stabilized the air this morning. Blah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 26, 2016 Report Share Posted April 26, 2016 Local TV meteorologist that I trust said today could be a bust forecast wise depending on where the warm front and triple point set up. He thinks it will be in Northern Kansas for the worst storms, then those would move north into Nebraska. I am also concerned about hail and where the dry line will be. I am going to be close, but hoping that tornadoes and hail stay away. Many chances of rain later in the week and the weekend might be a complete soaker. Hopefully I can get the yard mowed today before storms hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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