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Spring/Summer 2016 Severe Weather Thread


hlcater

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Right now I am in a severe thunderstorm warning, a tornado watch, and a flash flood warning for 2-3 inches of rain in the last hour. Wild weather here

Any hail? I've seen quite a few hail cores pass near/over Holdrege.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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My house just pea size. West of town golf ball size. That is all I have heard so far. Torrential rain is causing flooding concerns tonight. After tonight, I will be close to 9 inches of rain in the last week. Some places will easily be over 10 inches in that time. Farmers I know getting worried about planting.

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00z NAM all aboard the hype train for Friday.... Why does the NAM have to suck so bad.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016042700/072/sbcape.us_sc.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016042700/072/sfctd.us_sc.png
 

http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/nam_2016042700_072_35.17--97.12.png

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Flood warning continues for my county, Phelps, until 8:15 AM.  Started raining again about 3:30 AM and continues.  Not much sleep with all of the thunder.  Radar estimates are 4-6 inches in many part of the county and still more to come. Our local radio station said 4 1/2 inches as of 10 minutes ago here in town.  Break tomorrow then more rain Friday and forecast calls for several inches Friday night into Saturday.  Beginning of a drought two weeks ago and now floods.  

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Holy cow!!!

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

NEC055-272100-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160427T2100Z/
DOUGLAS NE-
344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY...

AT 343 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN OMAHA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY
BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES
WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO
HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

AT 343 PM...AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED A TORNADO ALONG 132ND
STREET JUST OF DODGE...HEADING NORTH.

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Holy cow!!!

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA

344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

 

NEC055-272100-

/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160427T2100Z/

DOUGLAS NE-

344 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR NORTH

CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY...

 

AT 343 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED OVER WESTERN OMAHA...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

 

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

 

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY

BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES

WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO

HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE

DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

 

AT 343 PM...AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE OBSERVED A TORNADO ALONG 132ND

STREET JUST OF DODGE...HEADING NORTH.

I was surprised that they worded the warning so strongly because it was never a large tornado and wasn't very violent either. I was also surprised by the tornado too :P

I was at home kicking myself for not going out chasing in southwest Iowa today where there were several confirmed tornadoes. I chased Sunday and Tuesday down in Kansas, putting on 1200 miles and didn't see a single tornado. Then today one forms no more than 5 miles away from my house.

I grabbed my cameras and ran out to see what I could see. Most of the time there was either a wall cloud or a funnel. The tornado never looked to be on the ground for longer than a few seconds at a time and that was usually just a skinny "finger" or "fingers" that came out of the funnel. Early damage reports were just some slight tree and fence damage. It was slow moving though. I'll post some pics and once I upload and edit my video from my camcorder I'll post it here. Omaha really did dodge a bullet though as it went right through the middle of town and right when schools were letting out.

Today's setup was a classic cold core, low topped super cell day.

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I caught sight of this tornado on my way home from work this afternoon. I was working in North Central Omaha, debating whether to leave work early or wait out the storms (they were mostly just hailers at this point). I left work right before 3:30pm and drove south down I-680 in West Omaha, figuring I would cut between the big cell moving over western side of the metro and the next one coming up from the south side of the metro. 

 

Long story short, the sirens started sounding as I merged onto the interstate, and as I passed the West Maple Street exit, the wall cloud and attendant short lived twister were touching down about a mile to the west. Literally every driver on the busy highway slammed on their brakes and couldn't believe what they were seeing just off to their right. I was shaking as I feared the worst, and kept driving south towards a safer spot. I didn't catch more than a few seconds of the tornado (it only touched down briefly anyway), however it was a very exciting and frightening experience. The city of Omaha dodged a huge bullet today, had this storm been a little better organized, there would have been major problems as this tornado touched down in a densely populated area. Scary moments in West Omaha this afternoon for sure. 

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Here's a short video (via Facebook) of the tornado/funnel cloud from near 132nd and West Dodge Road (Highway 6). Very impressive structure with this storm, for a low topped supercell. 

 

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It dumbfounds me that today's event, with NO hype, literally no one was talking about this event outside of weather related places like here, and the amount of tornadoes so far today, exceeds the amount confirmed yesterday :lol:. Really goes to show what a difference wind profiles at the surface and aloft can make on storm mode and event. Even though storms weren't extremely organized they did hold together long enough to put down a few tornadoes.

 

 

EDIT: Actually looked at the wind profiles and the low levels were fairly impressive, but beyond that they really weren't that great, but not particularly detrimental either. Thus owing to the short-lived semi messy tornadoes we got today. 

 

EDIT 2: Found the 12z OAX sounding which looked a bit more normal than 00z.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/16042712_OBS/OAX.gif

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Watching the HRRR last night show those storms over Omaha, the NWS messed up bad. No watch, no speak of tornados, nothing. I was in Omaha earlier but was out west and didn't catch it. If that sucker wouldve held its ground there would've been some insane damage, that area is heavily populated. Wish I couldve seen it!!

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Here's a pic I took today!

 

DSC_0005 (3) copyright.jpg

Watching the HRRR last night show those storms over Omaha, the NWS messed up bad. No watch, no speak of tornados, nothing. I was in Omaha earlier but was out west and didn't catch it. If that sucker wouldve held its ground there would've been some insane damage, that area is heavily populated. Wish I couldve seen it!!

 

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Great reports and pic Jeremy.

 

It seems like severe weather is a world away from here.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Watching the HRRR last night show those storms over Omaha, the NWS messed up bad. No watch, no speak of tornados, nothing. I was in Omaha earlier but was out west and didn't catch it. If that sucker wouldve held its ground there would've been some insane damage, that area is heavily populated. Wish I couldve seen it!!

 

..and on the 5 yr anniversary of the 2011 Super outbreak no less. Coulda been REAL ugly egg-on-the-face for them if that was a stronger twister.  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I don't necessarily think the Omaha NWS did anything too wrong. Cold core set ups are very tricky. They did mention in the previous nights discussion that a low top supercell event was possible and even had a graphic that showed the risk of severe weather with hail, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes possible. Heck the SPC only had a 2% risk for eastern Nebraska and the tornado watch they issued started across the border in Iowa so literally one county over from Omaha and in the watch text they always say in and close to the watch area.

They couldn't very well have been touting a high risk of tornadoes yesterday.

I initially was going to chase yesterday, but didn't like the way the forecast hodographs were looking for tornado chances. Even the HRRR showed the better hodos were in central Iowa. Looking at the sounding though that was posted above, it looks like things were better than forecasted.

Of note, this is the 3rd tornado to hit either Omaha or an immediate suburb of Omaha since 2008, and I've been within 5 miles of all of them. Luckily they were all weaker tornadoes.

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Latest forecasts have my area of Central Nebraska potentially receiving up to 3 more inches of rain starting tomorrow morning through at least Sunday morning.  It is so wet around here that not much more rain may raise flood concerns again.  

I received another 1.3" of rain, I agree it's extremely wet. I never thought I would say it but it would be nice if the rain would stop! My April rain total is sitting at 4.7" and more to come this weekend. 

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I received another 1.3" of rain, I agree it's extremely wet. I never thought I would say it but it would be nice if the rain would stop! My April rain total is sitting at 4.7" and more to come this weekend. 

 

Yeah you're doing really well in the rainfall department! Hey you probably won't see a drought this summer.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Yeah you're doing really well in the rainfall department! Hey you probably won't see a drought this summer.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/nwscr/MonthPNormNWSCR.png

 

That's the snowfall map from Nov 21st isn't it? Sure looks eerily similar. All joking aside, it has 5/1-5/2 dates. Did you mean to post a monthly instead?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That's the snowfall map from Nov 21st isn't it? Sure looks eerily similar. All joking aside, it has 5/1-5/2 dates. Did you mean to post a monthly instead?

 

O the map changed itself. Let me find it again...

 

post-7-0-72261200-1462571636_thumb.png

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Looks like there is a Tornado warning near Lincoln, NE...

 

 

 

Tornado WarningSEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
552 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

NEC025-109-131-092315-
/O.CON.KOAX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160509T2315Z/
CASS NE-LANCASTER NE-OTOE NE-
552 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CASS...EAST CENTRAL LANCASTER AND NORTHWESTERN OTOE
COUNTIES...

AT 551 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF BENNET...OR 12 MILES EAST OF LINCOLN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
PALMYRA AROUND 555 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE EAGLE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 2 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 466 AND 475.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
 
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Figures I was driving out to Colorado to go skiing when this happens.

 

That's what you get for skiing in MAY! (j/k) 

 

Rockies are a bit of a drive from here, so I have never skied in April or May. Heard spring skiing can be really awesome out there though with warm sunny days and a foot of elevation-forced powder every night!

 

How'd you like it?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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That hail looks like an ice brain.

 

My initial thought too! That's an incredible picture.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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