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Spring/Summer 2016 Severe Weather Thread


hlcater

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It has been a crazy week of weather! We had a tornado warning very close to my area, I wasn't able to go though because I was in the hospital with my wife as she just gave birth to our 2nd child! My brother caught some good footage of a supercell that was kicking up gustnadoes. We received 2.6" of rain in my area, but areas in David have major flooding problems as do some areas in my southern end of the county. My May rainfall total is now up to 3" and we haven't even hit the peak of severe weather season! I think we are in for a wild ride....as was predicted back in November with the LRC!!

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Saw this tweet by Jim Cantore:

 

Here's some pics from Omaha this morning. I just missed the worse of it at my house, by about 1 mile to the south. I woke up at 3a to the warning. The storm was originally warned for quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds. A report came out of golf ball sized hail in west Omaha so they increased the hail size for the warning as it was moving right across central Omaha. I have GRLevel 3 and it was showing 2.75" estimated hail size in the storm! I know this is rarely ever realized on the ground but felt with a confirmed report that golf ball and possibly a bit larger was likely to go across Omaha. All these reports of hail drifts etc though were from marble sized hail that fell for about 15-20 minutes. At my place we had some hail piles but nothing like other places.

10309479_10100998702758794_64214809884493903_n.jpg

13220836_1280424788638294_7081017983858641564_n.jpg

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Here's some pics from Omaha this morning. I just missed the worse of it at my house, by about 1 mile to the south. I woke up at 3a to the warning. The storm was originally warned for quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds. A report came out of golf ball sized hail in west Omaha so they increased the hail size for the warning as it was moving right across central Omaha. I have GRLevel 3 and it was showing 2.75" estimated hail size in the storm! I know this is rarely ever realized on the ground but felt with a confirmed report that golf ball and possibly a bit larger was likely to go across Omaha. All these reports of hail drifts etc though were from marble sized hail that fell for about 15-20 minutes. At my place we had some hail piles but nothing like other places.

Holy cow!  It must have been pouring hail from the sky.  You usually see this type of stuff during the Monsoon season out in NM/AZ from slow moving super cells.  I think last year in CO something similar happened where an entire city got clobbered with hail the shut down traffic for hours.  That's something wild to see first hand.

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More massive hail producing storms targeted the STL region with grapefruit size hail earlier this afternoon and more storms spawning tornado's in S IL near Mt. Vernon.  What a string of active wx we are seeing.

 

image18.jpeg?w=750

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Surprisingly it feels like it hasn't been that active of a severe weather season so far, however this week has had several active days. What's crazy is that we have had a couple of high end events already despite the slow overall start to the season(statistically). But the severe weather has happened on low risk days. First Omaha had the tornado right in town a couple of weeks ago on a 2% risk day and under no watch. Then on this past Monday, Lincoln got nailed with the huge hail and tornado and there was another EF-2 tornado east of there in southeast Nebraska. The tornado risk that day from the SPC was initially 0%. Last night had a slight risk but that was expected to go down overnight. We still ended up with a major hailstorm at 3am.

I guess up this way the peak season really hasn't started yet so we'll see how it goes. Already hearing talk of the severe weather potential picking up the last 10 days of the month.

More massive hail producing storms targeted the STL region with grapefruits size hail earlier this afternoon and more storms spawning tornado's in S IL near Mt. Vernon.  What a string of active wx we are seeing.

 

image18.jpeg?w=750

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Holy cow!  It must have been pouring hail from the sky.  You usually see this type of stuff during the Monsoon season out in NM/AZ from slow moving super cells.  I think last year in CO something similar happened where an entire city got clobbered with hail the shut down traffic for hours.  That's something wild to see first hand.

 

Yeah usually Colorado is known for the biggest hail storms. Saw some pretty good hail out there the last time I visited. But nothing even close to those pictures above!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Here's some pics from Omaha this morning. I just missed the worse of it at my house, by about 1 mile to the south. I woke up at 3a to the warning. The storm was originally warned for quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds. A report came out of golf ball sized hail in west Omaha so they increased the hail size for the warning as it was moving right across central Omaha. I have GRLevel 3 and it was showing 2.75" estimated hail size in the storm! I know this is rarely ever realized on the ground but felt with a confirmed report that golf ball and possibly a bit larger was likely to go across Omaha. All these reports of hail drifts etc though were from marble sized hail that fell for about 15-20 minutes. At my place we had some hail piles but nothing like other places.

 

Just think about the updraft that kept all the hail rolling around aloft! EPIC!

 

I see the tree leaves got ripped up pretty good.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That's just NUTS! :blink:  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here's one more! This was at a gas station not even 2 miles from my house. It was nowhere near this bad at my house thankfully! 

 

Geos- that was probably the biggest deal with this storm was the tree and plant damage. I lost several stargazer lilies that were within a couple of weeks of blooming. Not sure how much property damage this would have caused. Wonder if this much hail can still cause roof damage even though it wasn't very large.....

13178518_10209770813933789_3833118086576201661_n.jpg

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Here's one more! This was at a gas station not even 2 miles from my house. It was nowhere near this bad at my house thankfully! 

 

Geos- that was probably the biggest deal with this storm was the tree and plant damage. I lost several stargazer lilies that were within a couple of weeks of blooming. Not sure how much property damage this would have caused. Wonder if this much hail can still cause roof damage even though it wasn't very large.....

 

Wow, that's just crazy. Looks like the aftermath of a sleet storm. Yeah it could cause roof damage if it accumulated enough. I'm sure it melted off fairly quickly though...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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  • 2 weeks later...

My wx M.O. = magnet for big snowstorms, but I dodge Derechoes apparently. The two biggies for SMI occurred back in the '90s

 

In '91 I was in TC too far north, by '98 I'd moved to South Bend and was too far south.

 

Still, amazing to think of 120-130mph winds in a T-storm!

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My wx M.O. = magnet for big snowstorms, but I dodge Derechoes apparently. The two biggies for SMI occurred back in the '90s

 

In '91 I was in TC too far north, by '98 I'd moved to South Bend and was too far south.

 

Still, amazing to think of 120-130mph winds in a T-storm!

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/may30-311998page.htm

Yes. Derechoes and heat bursts are both incredibly fascinating as a non-tornadic source of incredible wind and destruction.

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Here a few of my pics from the tornadoes south of Dodge City, KS on 5/24. Saw 8-10 tornadoes including 3 on the ground at the same time!

 

attachicon.gif_DSC0042editsmall.jpg

attachicon.gif_DSC0063editsmall.jpg

attachicon.gif_DSC0068editsmall.jpg

attachicon.gif_DSC0088editsmall.jpg

Those are some photogenic tornado's.  I've always wanted to see one close up...to hear the roar and immense power. 

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Those are some photogenic tornado's.  I've always wanted to see one close up...to hear the roar and immense power. 

They are amazing to witness. I only wish with these I would have been closer. They were slow moving to the north and we were to the south of them. Were always a distance away and never gained on them too much because we were always stopping for pics and video. It was a fun while we were chasing, but after seeing some of the other pics and videos, it really made me wish I had gotten closer first and then started taking pics. Actually kind of put a sour taste in my mouth, like I missed out on a great chance to get really good pics and videos!

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They are amazing to witness. I only wish with these I would have been closer. They were slow moving to the north and we were to the south of them. Were always a distance away and never gained on them too much because we were always stopping for pics and video. It was a fun while we were chasing, but after seeing some of the other pics and videos, it really made me wish I had gotten closer first and then started taking pics. Actually kind of put a sour taste in my mouth, like I missed out on a great chance to get really good pics and videos!

At least you were in a safe position capturing those pics!  Hopefully you'll get another few opportunities this summer.  Your region seems to be the hot spot this year.

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They are amazing to witness. I only wish with these I would have been closer. They were slow moving to the north and we were to the south of them. Were always a distance away and never gained on them too much because we were always stopping for pics and video. It was a fun while we were chasing, but after seeing some of the other pics and videos, it really made me wish I had gotten closer first and then started taking pics. Actually kind of put a sour taste in my mouth, like I missed out on a great chance to get really good pics and videos!

 

"I prefer my TOG's at arm's length" said the dude missing his arms.  Ok, maybe you didn't mean that close :P   Really great pic's! Surprised at the fields full of dead corn stalks. Not able to plant due to all the rain?? While I'd like to chase/witness a strong twister too, not sure I'd ever feel comfortable inside a mile radius the way those things can morph around. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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"I prefer my TOG's at arm's length" said the dude missing his arms.  Ok, maybe you didn't mean that close :P   Really great pic's! Surprised at the fields full of dead corn stalks. Not able to plant due to all the rain?? While I'd like to chase/witness a strong twister too, not sure I'd ever feel comfortable inside a mile radius the way those things can morph around. 

 

I've been really close one time, and that was maybe about a 1/4 mile away in May 2015. It was scary and breath taking! I feel fairly safe when I am chasing because I know where to be and 99% of the time they follow a predictable path. Of course it only takes once.... On this chase we were actually behind the tornado on the south side of the storm as it was moving north so it would have taken something absolutely bizarre for the tornado to change from going north to south.

The no crops has been that way for almost everywhere this spring. I've mainly been in Kansas, but even down in the Oklahoma panhandle there wasn't anything planted back around the 3rd week of May. These are all areas that have had a ton of rain so I believe that would be the cause. It's really been pretty surprising at how empty the fields have been. My dad said a lot of farmers have had to give up on corn up in southeast South Dakota too and have started planting bean crops.

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Big boomers that could likely train over the same area set to go off before sunrise.

 

 

 

First round

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Big boomers that could likely train over the same area set to go off before sunrise.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016060812/wrf-arw_ref_uv10m_ncus_22.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016060812/wrf-arw_ref_uv10m_ncus_25.png

 

First round

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2016060812/wrf-arw_apcpn_ncus_34.png

 

Looking like those NE of the front get strato-rain event with maybe a rumble or 2 thrown in. NBD sadly. Not enough of a contrast imho. 20 degs across like 500 miles won't cut it. You need 100*F heat too, not that 85*F in IA currently. Oh well, it's all good for me. I'm just in summer mode for sunshine, shorts wx, and enough rain to keep thing green

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Just a light rain here, not even with thunder.

Something tells me the heat and storms will further west later.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Still looks like IA could be in the hot spot later today for Severe Wx...

 

 

 

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/Tuesday-1-3.gif

Looks like I will be in the "Enhanced Category" by late tomorrow afternoon and evening with golf size hail and isolated tornadoes. :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like I will be in the "Enhanced Category" by late tomorrow afternoon and evening with golf size hail and isolated tornadoes. :o

 

..we've heard this so many times over the past 3-4 yrs and I think only 11-17-13 delivered, and even then the TOR's (thankfully I'll add) stayed out of SMI. Remember the "PDS watch" a couple years back that was a total bust?? I'm not wishing for this one way or the other, but I do have a child departing DTW Wed pm so if there's a day it will actually materialize, tomorrow's likely the day :rolleyes:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I have lost all faith in the SPC with their issuances. The worst outbreak we've had this year was during a marginal risk. And when we had a moderate, nada. Again, enhanced risk yesterday, with little model support, and what do you know, looking like a dud again. It's hard to put money in anything they say as their improvements over the course of the past few years has been non-existant.

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I have lost all faith in the SPC with their issuances. The worst outbreak we've had this year was during a marginal risk. And when we had a moderate, nada. Again, enhanced risk yesterday, with little model support, and what do you know, looking like a dud again. It's hard to put money in anything they say as their improvements over the course of the past few years has been non-existant.

This system seems to have the ingredients to produce some big storms.  It also correlates well with the LRC and in every cycle, this system produced severe wx.  Here is the updated SPC Outlook for today...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gif

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Went chasing yesterday, this time up in western Minnesota. One of the more "odd" chases I've had as the cells that were producing the tornadoes in western Minnesota and northeast South Dakota were very small and not your normal cells that scream tornado potential, but they spun up when they interacted with the warm front. 

Saw a couple of brief tornadoes and the storms tried real hard at other times.

I was driving home last night with my chase partner and we were talking about how the last time we even chased in Nebraska was at the end of March!

I'm now up to almost 8,000 miles chasing this year as it seems like every chase is 4+ hours away,

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Was just going to mention the tornado watch. 

 

HRRR showing discrete cells could start popping up at any time.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Was just going to mention the tornado watch. 

 

HRRR showing discrete cells could start popping up at any time.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016061519/hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_4.png

 

I think the CAP will be to strong around these parts, but we could get swiped if the line forms far enough south.

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I think the CAP will be to strong around these parts, but we could get swiped if the line forms far enough south.

 

Wondering if the lake breeze front might set off something...

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Wednesday still looks like it will be an active day for the Midwest/southern Lakes.  Torcon is up to a Level 5 for N IL.  Probably one of the more active severe weather events this year.  Lot's of instability and wind sheer is forecast to be present.

 

18z NAM looks wild...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016062018/nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_37.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016062018/nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_38.png

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SPC has increased their outlook to Moderate for N IL/N IN/SW MI and extreme SE WI...

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1466515489920

 

 

This set up looks nasty.  All the ingredients seem to be coming together for a large severe wx outbreak.  There will def be a lot of "juice" fueling these storms with ample heat and humidity to the S/SW.  Tomorrow afternoon will likely be when more stronger storms target the region.

 

 

 

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WIND THREAT SHOULD ALSO
PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND INTO WESTERN OHIO.

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS WI AND INTO LOWER MI. SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F
WILL BE PRESENT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LEADING TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS. A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AND WILL
INTENSIFY LATE IN THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED...FAST-MOVING SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE RISK AREA
BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON WED ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AND PERSISTING
INTO THU MORNING TOWARD THE OH RIVER.

...SRN MN...ERN IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI // MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY...
A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WED MORNING ROUGHLY
FROM SERN MN/ERN IA ACROSS IL AND INTO SRN INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH THE SWLY 850 MB JET. WIND PROFILES
AT THIS TIME WILL ALREADY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WIND OR TORNADO THREAT...AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY
MIDDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY //
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATE WED AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER ACTIVITY...AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD TIME
TO HEAT AND FURTHER DESTABILIZE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW OVER NERN IA BETWEEN 21-00Z...AND THIS IS
THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR INITIATION OR PERHAPS JUST E INTO WI/IL. A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL EXIST AROUND 700 MB...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD BREACH IT RESULTING IN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS.
VERY LARGE HAIL....TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AS
THESE CELLS MOVE ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL AND POSSIBLY INTO CNTRL
IL. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SFC LOW...WHICH
WILL TRACK NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/TURNING WITH
HEIGHT WILL BE GREATEST. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CELLS MAY EXTEND SWD
INTO CNTRL IL.

BY EVENING...A RAPID UPSCALE-GROWTH INTO A SEVERE MCS IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST WIND FIELDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE FROM
NAM/GFS SHOW IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...AND A INTENSE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
SIGNAL WITH THE WIND FIELDS OVERALL SUGGESTING AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
AS SUCH...THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM COULD EXTEND FARTHER E THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST DESPITE LOWER LEVELS OF INSTABILITY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTED A BIT IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS PRECISE LOCATION OF LOW TRACK AND WARM FRONT ARE BETTER
FORECAST.
 
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12z high rez Nam crushes N IL with training severe storms later Wednesday afternoon.  If the sun can come out after the 1st round of storms, the atmosphere could turn explosive.

 

Dewpoints near 80F is unheard of this far north later Wednesday evening!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016062112/nam4km_Td2m_ncus_36.png

 

 

This is when it could get real nasty producing a long fetch Derecho..

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016062112/nam4km_ref_ncus_37.png

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