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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

How were the morning GFS ensembles?

Not bad sir.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z ECMWF is much less amplified.    That massive ridge over Alaska on the 00Z run for later next week has been been replaced with a deep trough up there on the 12Z run.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much less amplified.    That massive ridge over Alaska on the 00Z run for later next week has been been replaced with a deep trough up there on the 12Z run.   

That energy up in Alaska is proving to be extremely stubborn to break down. Might have to wait until later in October before that signature changes.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

That energy up in Alaska is proving to be extremely stubborn to break down. Might have to wait until later in October before that signature changes.

Better now than January. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

That energy up in Alaska is proving to be extremely stubborn to break down. Might have to wait until later in October before that signature changes.

Any reason for late October specifically?

Seems conceivable that it could change sooner considering we’ve been stuck with that pattern since sometime in July, and now wavelengths are shortening/lengthening.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better now than January. 

Agreed! I'm sensing a lot of GOA ridging by mid fall through winter this year. 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better now than January. 

Exactly. Save it for Thanksgiving-Feb.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Any reason for late October specifically?

Seems conceivable that it could change sooner considering we’ve been stuck with that pattern since sometime in July, and now wavelengths are shortening/lengthening.

Not thinking late October but maybe early to mid October.

Strong GOA energy through September is climo so betting on persistence there. It's not until mid October that Rossby wave lengthening starts to really come into effect is how I understand it.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah torching the rest of the year has really been working out great for colder winters lately.

Sure has!! 

04D10B12-969B-4511-9DC2-D6D2E823AF79.jpeg

E9E96C9A-4B15-4B25-AB00-B3591EC53EBE.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

 

LWX does severe thunderstorm warnings like PQR does winter storm warnings.

Over-warning is certainly an issue, but no more egregious here than other places I’ve been to. Lots of borderline storms with 50-55mph winds at DCA this summer, and ironically many of them weren’t warned at all, including one which produced a 57mph gust just last month.

Something like 80% of severe wx here is microburst activity that is small in scale, short in duration, and therefore difficult to predict. But it’s very frequent in this region, mostly for topographic reasons.

Still, most places under the severe warning don’t actually experience conditions meeting severe criteria due to its localized nature.

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21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah torching the rest of the year has really been working out great for colder winters lately.

Could have been worse. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Marine layer squeezed in here after dawn.   It was a rare (for this summer) top down burn off out here today rather than clearing from south or west as is typical when the marine layer is the result of a trough.    There has been almost no days this summer with a marine layer out here with a warm air mass overhead... but it happened today.   The little marine layer we have seen this summer has been with troughing. A top down clearing pattern is common on days like this with a lack of strong onshore flow and a warm air mass overhead.  This was very common in the summer of 2010 when almost every day started out cloudy despite a lack of troughing overhead. 

Anyways... totally sunny here now and the temp has jumped up into the 70s very quickly.   Likely heading for another day in the 80s.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like there is lots of spread on the 12Z EPS.   Doesn't look too troughy or too ridgy.   Hopefully that means it ends up just being really nice... not too hot and not too cold and generally sunny. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1662033600-1662033600-1663329600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like there is lots of spread on the 12Z EPS.   Doesn't look too troughy or too ridgy.   Hopefully that means it ends up just being really nice... not too hot and not too cold and generally sunny. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1662033600-1662033600-1663329600-10.gif

Looks typical onshore flow to me. 

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38 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

here spaghetti

ens_image.png.53709ba22bac5e15e97a7301f5260cad.png

Thank you. These are much more useful than a smoothed mean. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thank you. These are much more useful than a smoothed mean. 

Lots of spread.    Says the same thing... but map shows all of North America and not just what is projected for a single location on the planet.   Seeing all the members is nice.   Seeing the big picture of the overall pattern is also nice. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Summer and winter can easily start and end with the same weather.   And unfortunately around here... spring can get pretty close as well.    That is not true for many places.   It was 57 degrees for a high at SEA on March 1st this year and 56 degrees on May 29th which is almost the end of spring.     But there is zero chance that the last day of fall will be anywhere close to the weather we have on this first day of fall.   😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer and winter can easily start and end with the same weather.   Unfortunately around here... spring can get pretty close as well.    It was 57 degrees for a high at SEA on March 1st this year and 56 degrees on May 29th which is almost the end of spring.     But there is zero chance that the last day of fall will be anywhere close to the weather we have on this first day of fall.   😀

So what you're trying to tell us is the last day of fall will most likely be in the 40s, dreary, drippy and possibly rainy? 

Noted! Sounds like WONDERFUL weather to me. ;)

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

So what you're trying to tell us is the last day of fall will most likely be in the 40s, dreary, drippy and possibly rainy? 

Noted! Sounds like WONDERFUL weather to me. ;)

I am saying its not even possible for it to be 80 degrees and sunny in my backyard on November 30th... but its very easy on September 1st and its happening now!  

November through February is warm weather vacation time.   👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Decent 18z RUN.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like another 90 is pretty much a lock today. Seems like a marine layer burn off at 11am on 9/1 would usually make it a little tougher to achieve 

Yeah, but 850mb temps are pushing 22-23C. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It really does look like we will have a taste of fall by mid-month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking at the PRISM data, July was the 9th warmest since 1895 here with a monthly mean of 65.4. Warmest was July 1906 with a mean of 67.0. 

August data hasn't been finalized yet. Looks like our warmest August was 1986, also with a mean of 67.0. At least on this data set, slightly warmer than August 1967. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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