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2 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Very pleasant in Puget Sound region today. Only 75 here. Feels much better today vs the last two days. 

The models kind of appear we may be pretty much done with heat here for the year.  Probably some low 80s still to come, but maybe not much more than that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 🤣

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just amazing.    Everything in late spring pointed to a cool payback summer.    And it ends up not being cool or even normal... it actually ups the ante on the warming summers over the last decade and was top tier warm.   Hard to believe.    Not sure how we get a cool payback summer now.   I am starting to doubt its even possible at this point.   

I am also really interested to see how the effects of Tonga play out over the next 5+ years.    It just seems like warmth might be even easier to achieve.    All speculation of course... but we are dealing with an unprecedented event and the first northern hemisphere summer has been crazy warm in many far apart places like China and Europe and the PNW.

Haven't seen a single mention of Tonga being a source of warming anywhere outside of this forum.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It really would be nice to get at least one significant rain event.    Fall color will not be impressive if it stays this dry through September.     At one point the ECMWF was showing a significant AR event starting tomorrow. 

It will rain when Russell returns.

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51 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Haven't seen a single mention of Tonga being a source of warming anywhere outside of this forum.

And it really just has one source on here... 🤡

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 🤣

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

Did fine down here.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

14 degree miss inside 24hrs is insane. That 2024 GFS upgrade can’t come soon enough.

It happens often when the marine layer over performs, like today. The GFS is notoriously bad at overestimating highs with any type of marine influence. Even so, a 14 degree miss within a day is insane like you said.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 🤣

Right but we should look at the reason WHY. 

There's really no reason for the model with this kind of infrastructure to be this far off at this range. And it's quite obvious we can see why too.... it completely missed the marine influence, which allowed it to gave that ridiculous output. 

The 00z last night showed ZERO marine influence at all throughout the day, when in fact, SEA was under this thick layer until 1-2PM in the afternoon today. 

If it can get the marine layer stuff fixed, it'll be better for the model.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA hit 77 today.  A bit short of the 0z GFS going for 91. 🤣

It's always cold here.   Models show warmth and it never comes.   😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It's always cold here.   Models show warmth and it never comes.   😀

Your boy goofus is cracked. Just admit it. 😏

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9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Right but we should look at the reason WHY. 

There's really no reason for the model with this kind of infrastructure to be this far off at this range. And it's quite obvious we can see why too.... it completely missed the marine influence, which allowed it to gave that ridiculous output. 

The 00z last night showed ZERO marine influence at all throughout the day, when in fact, SEA was under this thick layer until 1-2PM in the afternoon today. 

If it can get the marine layer stuff fixed, it'll be better for the model.

It has a chronic dry bias in the BL. Will randomly spit out 130°F surface temps over the Plains during the midsummer months. Probably the same reason it can’t simulate marine influence accurately.

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Just now, Cloud said:

It's definitely cracked at certain aspect, like catching the marine influence for example. LR pattern behavior, I think it's quite decent. 

Vehemently disagree. It scores lower than the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC at z500/D5+.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

It has a chronic dry bias in the BL. Will randomly spit out 130°F surface temps over the Plains during the midsummer months. Probably the same reason it can’t simulate marine influence accurately.

Is that why the GFS is more accurate for the Willamette Valley than the Puget Sound, less marine influence?

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Your boy goofus is cracked. Just admit it. 😏

I follow the ECMWF for surface details and know to add at least 3-5 degrees to the temps on most days.    The ECMWF is the best model out there for all surface details but it has a very predictable cool bias.    And yet its all quiet on here on days like Tuesday when the GFS predicted 90 and it was actually 90... while the ECMWF said it was only be 81.  

I can easily recognize the days when the GFS will have problems.    

The implication by Jim is that the GFS is always off by 15 degrees.    I need to save some of his posts mocking the GFS when he is talking about its ridiculously cold temps this winter.    Can't have it both ways.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I follow the ECMWF for surface details and know to add at least 3-5 degrees to the temps on most days.    The ECMWF is the best model out there for all surface details but it has a very predictable cool bias.    And yet its all quiet on here on days like Tuesday when the GFS predicted 90 and it was actually 90... while the ECMWF said it was only be 81.  

I can easily recognize the days when the GFS will have problems.    

The implication by Jim is that the GFS is always off by 15 degrees.    I need to save some of his posts mocking the GFS when he is talking about its ridiculously cold temps this winter.    Can't have it both ways.   😀

The ECMWF projected 79°F today. Even it was too warm.

The GFS is projecting 90°F again tomorrow, while the ECMWF has 80°F. I wonder which will be closer. 🙄 

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1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea the way the NWS was acting like this was going to be a day of extreme heat.

Funny thing is... they used the blend model as the tool for their forecast... which on most days are actually closer to the Euro's surface details. 

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Just now, Phil said:

The ECMWF projected 79°F today. Even it was too warm.

The GFS is forecasting 91°F again tomorrow, while the ECMWF is predicting 80°F. I wonder which will be closer. 🙄 

If you lived here it would be more obvious to you when there will be model issues.   The days when all the models will bust too warm is days with a solid marine layer that hangs on until at least noon and then slowly clears.   Its much easier for the models to handle all day clouds or all day sunshine.   Timing of clearing is everything on days like today.   Today was a guaranteed failure for the GFS.    

For tomorrow... the 12Z ECMWF showed 80 and the 00Z GFS shows 88.    The ECMWF handles marine layer clouds almost perfectly and it shows some low clouds into the Seattle area tomorrow morning and then clearing quickly.  Much quicker than today.   But still... onshore flow will be increasing during the day so I would lean slightly towards the ECMWF tomorrow.    Probably 82 or 83.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

For SEA? It's forecasting 84 tomorrow.... not 91? 

sfctmax_024h.us_state_wa.png

Close to 90°F at SeaTac, though.

9D8EB3BD-A575-4308-94FC-5DD410D29D1F.png

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Interestingly... on Saturday the models show a solid marine layer again through the morning and then clearing.   But there is not a warm air mass overhead that so the GFS will do much better.   The ECMWF shows 77 and the GFS shows 79 so they almost agree at this point so there really can't be a clear winner that day.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you lived here it would be more obvious to you when there will be model issues.   The days when all the models will bust too warm is days with a solid marine layer that hangs on until at least noon and then slowly clears.   Its much easier for the models to handle all day clouds or all day sunshine.   Timing of clearing is everything on days like today.   Today was a guaranteed failure for the GFS.    

For tomorrow... the 12Z ECMWF showed 80 and the 00Z GFS shows 88.    The ECMWF handles marine layer clouds almost perfectly and it shows some low clouds into the Seattle area tomorrow morning and then clearing quickly.  Much quicker than today.   But still... onshore flow will be increasing during the day so I would lean slightly towards the ECMWF tomorrow.    Probably 82 or 83.

Marine layer is advancing a bit later tonight compared to last, but it is making its away in and down from the Strait... Probably also means won't be as thick tomorrow and  faster to burn off. Could be a couple degrees warmer than today, which would be right on point with the Euro's forecast. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW-07-04_36Z-20220902_map_-41-1n-10-100.gif

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Marine layer is advancing a bit later tonight compared to last, but it is making its away in and down from the Strait... Probably also means won't be as thick tomorrow and  faster to burn off. Could be a couple degrees warmer than today, which would be right on point with the Euro's forecast. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW-07-04_36Z-20220902_map_-41-1n-10-100.gif

Much slower... and also moving more north to south than to the east.     But will probably form in place around Seattle later.  

Here is the ECMWF cloud map for 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. tomorrow:

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-2130800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-2141600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GFS will always be right when it shows an Arctic & snow event down to southern Oregon.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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