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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Every run looks so different.     I assume this is the result of tropical activity around the world... but the swings are just ridiculous right now.  Literally no clue what is going to happen. 

Instability before the termination of the summer pattern.

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56 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like Seattle has passed the worst of the heat now as we head into the evening with a high of 80F. Next few days look like a slice of heaven with good marine layers in the morning, lows in the 50s, and highs in the 72F-77F range.

In fact, not much of a real signal for 80F+ heat in Seattle for the foreseeable future. We may well be done with them this year if we're lucky.

GFS had 90°F today at SeaTac. 😏

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First smoke plume of the year is almost totally blocking the sun, but it looks like it will pass quickly.

On another note...I had my first fairly dense fog of the season this morning.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Knock on wood but I think this might be the worst of it this summer (atleast in the Puget sound area) based on the upcoming pattern the next 7–10 days.

Certainly looks that way.  May go down as a hot, but fairly short summer.  We should still have quite a few nice days though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Instability before the termination of the summer pattern.

I'm betting it showed at least 50 to 60 days hitting 90 this summer.  It hands hot days for SEA out like candy.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Marine clouds are surging inland already.  Going to be socked in for a good part of tomorrow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 12z EPS actually showed temps a bit below normal for much of week two.  It also showed strong high pressure over the GOA which should drop the coastal SST's quite a bit.  Looks like the 4CH is done for the year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Marine clouds are surging inland already.  Going to be socked in for a good part of tomorrow.

At least until 2 or 3.

Sort of sucks on a holiday weekend.    At least Sunday and Monday look more sunny.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Gfs has been swinging even more widely than normal lately…all the models have to a certain extent but especially the gfs. 

Yeah earlier it was showing 100 for PDX on the 11th at one point as well, and I think a few other runs were showing troughing on the same day.

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah earlier it was showing 100 for PDX on the 11th at one point as well, and I think a few other runs were showing troughing on the same day.

Hard to really trust any of the models past 5-7 days recently. The euro sure looked nice this afternoon but I expect it’ll be quite different tonight. 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Hard to really trust any of the models past 5-7 days recently. The euro sure looked nice this afternoon but I expect it’ll be quite different tonight. 

Model chaos right now... no way to know what will actually happen. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Model chaos right now... no way to know what will actually happen. 

I'll be out of the country by then so you guys enjoy the chaos! 

And fwiw, model chaos is also a sign of change as well. Doesn't seem like it knows what to grasp yet..

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Hard to really trust any of the models past 5-7 days recently. The euro sure looked nice this afternoon but I expect it’ll be quite different tonight. 

The GEFS and EPS have been pretty consistent on flipping to -PNA for week two.  In fact tonight's GEFS is cooler than the previous couple of runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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