PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Problem with the “Labor Day” wind was the whole downed power line aspect. 

One friend of mine is still 100% convinced it was Antifa who coordinated that effort.

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Wow... those temps are crazy.

Seems like a pretty good chance for Sacramento to have a new all-time. 

[Requiem]

25 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah thankfully that isn't happening but the Euro is still forecasting gusts ~35 mph here.

I'd take those gusts with a grain of salt particularly on the GFS (which is horrible at modeling terrain driven winds to my experience). EURO is a bit better but it still usually misses some of those nuances especially in the Portland metro.

[TT-SEA]

Surprisingly breezy here this evening.  Definitely a sign of fall... its almost always calm here on summer evenings after a sunny day.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Surprisingly breezy here this evening.  Definitely a sign of fall... its almost always calm here on summer evenings after a sunny day.

Felt that earlier… it was quite breezy around 5-6pm today. A bit calmer now. 
 

Speaking of sign of fall, drove across 90 today east bound and maples are starting to have their foliage.

[TT-SEA]

@snow_wizard  The ECMWF had 71 at SEA today... the GFS had 75.     Actual high was 75.  

GFS does pretty well on sunny days... even sunny days that are not unusually hot.    Better than the ECMWF.

[RentonHill]

24 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Felt that earlier… it was quite breezy around 5-6pm today. A bit calmer now. 
 

Speaking of sign of fall, drove across 90 today east bound and maples are starting to have their foliage.

I saw a few larch over blewett have the tiniest tinge of yellow. And a few of the aspen here have a few branches of penny yellow leaves. Oh lawd it’s comin

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I saw a few larch over blewett have the tiniest tinge of yellow. And a few of the aspen here have a few branches of penny yellow leaves. Oh lawd it’s comin

My exact thought when I see the first cherry blossoms in February.  

[LowerGarfield]

Today was pretty great. The high was pretty consistent at 80 degrees but sunny. Light breeze. pleasant. Now down to 64 outsie. We have our windows open and the A/C off. Certainly cool enough to wear a light jacket with the breeze.

[TT-SEA]

36 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Felt that earlier… it was quite breezy around 5-6pm today. A bit calmer now. 
 

Speaking of sign of fall, drove across 90 today east bound and maples are starting to have their foliage.

I noticed a few of those when we were driving back from Issaquah this evening.

[LowerGarfield]

38 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Felt that earlier… it was quite breezy around 5-6pm today. A bit calmer now. 
 

Speaking of sign of fall, drove across 90 today east bound and maples are starting to have their foliage.

I noticed that on Sunday with the maples at church already started to change color but no where near peak, This is in Lewiston so I was surprised but it is Sept. Last year it was a bit later.

[GobBluth]

GFS much faster with breakdown of ridge by Monday.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

GFS much faster with breakdown of ridge by Monday.

Still shows sun and in the low 80s on Monday... and looks about the same as the 12Z GFS by Tuesday morning.  Except it doesn't show the rain that run showed with the tropical moisture getting entrained ahead of the trough. 

[TT-SEA]

Actually the 00Z GFS does show some rain by Wednesday... presumably remnant tropical moisture adding to this possibility. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM brings a very weak ULL/trough in on Monday evening just in time for showers during the Seahawks game.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually the 00Z GFS does show some rain by Wednesday... presumably remnant tropical moisture adding to this possibility. 

Puyallup special

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 00Z GEFS is slower to move that broad trough in early next week.    The warm air mass is still in place on Monday evening.   But its definitely cooler than the upcoming weekend.  

 

[TonyP]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Mariners were sooo close to extending their winning streak.

I am going up to Bellingham tomorrow and bringing my mom back down to the game.   She has become a die hard Mariners fan and she watches every game.   I have to bring her to a game in person during this pennant race.   I got seats right behind Mariners dugout on StubHub.    Sure hope they win... or at least its an exciting game.    

GOMS

[TonyP]

I’m just biding my time at this point. Can’t wait for the stormy, dreary upcoming months model riding with y’all.  This is just the calm before the real fun starts. 

[snow_wizard]

Already seeing some low to mid 50s tonight.  We should see many lows solidly below 50 tonight.  I love the first crisp mornings of autumn!

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, TonyP said:

I’m just biding my time at this point. Can’t wait for the stormy, dreary upcoming months model riding with y’all.  This is just the calm before the real fun starts. 

It doesn't have to be dreary to be fun.  Take October 1949 for instance.  Very chilly but not dreary.  Many more recent examples too.

[LowerGarfield]

It was down to 60 at 10pm here. We had a taste of the fall.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

It was down to 60 at 10pm here. We had a taste of the fall.

I think the bigger taste will be tomorrow morning.

Lots of cool weather on this GFS run.  So far this month looks like it's going to be reasonable for temps.

[Kayla]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

Sacramento and NorCal set all kinds of records today and even challenged the all-time record. Didn’t quite hit the 120s stuff the Euro was showing at one point but it’s D**n hot down there. 

 

 

Impressive. Today should shatter their all-time records.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

I noticed that on Sunday with the maples at church already started to change color but no where near peak, This is in Lewiston so I was surprised but it is Sept. Last year it was a bit later.

Last year at Snoqualmie Ridge on October  8th. This was also a bit past peak… so we’re still likely a 3 weeks to month out. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

Sacramento and NorCal set all kinds of records today and even challenged the all-time record. Didn’t quite hit the 120s stuff the Euro was showing at one point but it’s D**n hot down there. 

 

 

Tomorrow might be a few degrees hotter than today so one more chance at the 120’s this year. Will probably happen within a decade regardless.

[TacomaWx]

Getting packed for the Oregon trip tonight…gonna leave at 6am tomorrow. Planning on stopping at Mt.Hood, cove palisades and the painted hills tomorrow will post photos. 

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Tomorrow might be a few degrees hotter than today so one more chance at the 120’s this year. Will probably happen within a decade regardless.

00z GFS came in 1 whopping degree cooler! So about 116-117F for Sac, so might not get 120 there. Few places like Chico might hit 120. 

Gonna see what the Euro says.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Getting packed for the Oregon trip tonight…gonna leave at 6am tomorrow. Planning on stopping at Mt.Hood, cove palisades and the painted hills tomorrow will post photos. 

Planning to stop at Newberry NVM? It’s been quiet for centuries but it’s certainly not dead. You can still smell sulphur. Plus an impressive obsidian flow.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Planning to stop at Newberry NVM? It’s been quiet for centuries but it’s certainly not dead. You can still smell sulphur. Plus an impressive obsidian flow.

Will be in the Paulina peak area so probably will do it. Last time I went to Oregon I missed a few things in central Oregon that I’m planning on seeing this time. 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

He can.   We all know its never that hot at his house which is why he likes hot patterns.   And he has stellar AC!   Everyone likes to pretend that Randy and I want be to set on fire or we aren't happy.   But that is just silly.   Our summer preferences are like the vast majority of the population.  It's just unusual in this small group where everyone wants cold troughing all summer. 

Randy craves seasonal extremes but lives in a climate that doesn’t really have them.  

[Phil]

These middle latitude waters are stupid warm. Especially off eastern Canada where the SSTs are several degrees warmer than those off California.

[ShawniganLake]

Most of the smoke had cleared out of the Southern Cariboo area yesterday. We hiked up to the old fire lookout tower on Mount Begbie (4200ft). Back in the day this lookout was used to observe 22.2 million acres of forest during the fire season. 
 

 

[Doinko]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

These middle latitude waters are stupid warm. Especially off eastern Canada where the SSTs are several degrees warmer than those off California.

Is the PDO still negative? I can't really tell. It looks like a lot of warmth in the Gulf of Alaska.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Is the PDO still negative? I can't really tell. It looks like a lot of warmth in the Gulf of Alaska.

That’s a very negative PDO look.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Is the PDO still negative? I can't really tell. It looks like a lot of warmth in the Gulf of Alaska.

[Kayla]

00z ECMWF shows 119 for SAC today. 120 is definitely within possibilities... Just absolutely insane for September.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Clear and 54 this morning. Looks like the potential is there for some pretty nasty fire weather Friday into the weekend, hot with offshore winds. No real rain in sight for now either.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Getting packed for the Oregon trip tonight…gonna leave at 6am tomorrow. Planning on stopping at Mt.Hood, cove palisades and the painted hills tomorrow will post photos. 

Stay safe home dawg.

[TT-SEA]

Even I am really surprised at how much the models are backing off on what seemed like a guaranteed significant troughy period.  A few days ago people were declaring the end of any summer-like weather starting as early as the middle of this week.  Jim was comparing runs to 1955 a few days ago.  

Now there is only a weak troughy signal way out at 10 days on the EPS and then it goes right back to ridging afterwards.    The EPS does not show a high temp below 70 for the next 15 days.    Just seems like persistence is winning the battle.