PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Meanwhile the 00Z GFS has multiple systems and a decent amount of rain after day 10... which would be close to climo.

The trough shown between the 19th and 20th would be quite lovely in the wintertime. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We always debate whether its June or September that is more of a summer month... but splitting both of them in half is the best answer.

Definitely September here. At least the air moves in June.

[Cloud]

Just now, Phil said:

Watch the arctic air build on the 00z GFS.

We’re so close.

4CH has a freaking heartbeat bro... I can't stop watching it........

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Watch the arctic air build on the 00z GFS.

We’re so close.

And then in mid-late November that arctic air will drop right over the PNW!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

It must be exhausting to be you. 

No other poster even comes close, attempts to normalize notwithstanding.

[TT-SEA]

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, The Blob said:

My parents fly up the weekend of the 24th, probably should tell them to pack a rain jacket.

Underwear too.

[Front Ranger]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

Watch the arctic air build on the 00z GFS.

We’re so close.

Sh*t model though, bro.

[Jbolin]

Felt minor shaking, appears there have been three quakes (east to west) from Issaquah to Quilcene

[The Blob]

Fiddy burger for me

[TT-SEA]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

18z says bye bye summer.

06Z GFS shows about a 1/10th of the rain as that run did and brings back ridging later on.  

[GobBluth]

44 in Beaverton this morning.  Glorious.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Clear and 51 this morning, feels great out. Only a few more sh*t days in sight at this point. 

In other news, did the Euro even run last night?

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Clear and 51 this morning, feels great out. Only a few more sh*t days in sight at this point. 

In other news, did the Euro even run last night?

Just checked... it did run.    I went to bed at 11 so I missed it.    It was actually a little warmer each day through most of next week compared to its 12Z run.    

[TT-SEA]

10-day rain total per 00Z ECMWF... 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS day 8-15... still shows troughing moving solidly through the west like the 12Z run and then maybe a transition back to ridging.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mostly 40s in NW Oregon this morning though PDX is comically warm at 56. Tillamook is 39.

[FroYoBro]

Wow, I actually felt cold when I stepped outside this morning. 46 degrees here. 

[GobBluth]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just checked... it did run.    I went to bed at 11 so I missed it.    It was actually a little warmer each day through most of next week compared to its 12Z run.    

Not much of a strong ridge next week but the jet is having difficulty consolidating into anything meaningful. Pretty typical September.

[TT-SEA]

HRRR smoke model showing that big fire in the North Cascades will be pointing its smoke plume right at western WA tomorrow morning.    

 

[TT-SEA]

And with all that smoke being sent out over the ocean... the return to weak onshore flow by Sunday into next week could also be pretty ugly.

 

[TT-SEA]

First visible satellite images show central and eastern WA filling up with smoke this morning.    And its all coming westward soon.    

[Chewbacca Defense]

14 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That fire in the North Cascades is roaring today with strong onshore flow... and I assume that will end up dumping smoke westward into at least Bellingham and Vancouver BC by Friday when we have strong offshore flow. 

 I was hoping to get the stairs, rails and pergola done on my deck this weekend, but looks like we might have less than ideal working conditions at least on Saturday.  Oh well, I can use the day to go car shopping for my son.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

49˚F! First sub-50˚F night of the season.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

First visible satellite images show central and eastern WA filling up with smoke this morning.    And its all coming westward soon.    

I knew it was probably coming. Hopefully it ends up being short-lived and ended by a nice dump of rain soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really no meaningful difference between the 12z and 00z EPS runs. Just checked them myself. Certainly not worth replying to myself 17 times over. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE and EUG both hit 45 on the 5 min obs this morning. Looks like PDX managed to hit 55. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Departures for the 1st week of September

PDX +5.2

EUG +4.4

SLE +4.1

A few more very warm days on tap before we cool down towards normal. No significantly below average weather on the way either so we will just slowly drift back towards normal, if we end the month lower than a +2 departure then its a win. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really no meaningful difference between the 12z and 00z EPS runs. Just checked them myself. Certainly not worth replying to myself 17 times over. 

I made one post about the 00Z EPS and actually said it agreed with the 12Z EPS.   

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Not much of a strong ridge next week but the jet is having difficulty consolidating into anything meaningful. Pretty typical September.

I thought maybe I missed something big on the 00Z ECMWF with that sarcastic post from Jesse about it not running.   But no... it was about the same or just a bit warmer than the previous run.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Departures for the 1st week of September

PDX +5.2

EUG +4.4

SLE +4.1

A few more very warm days on tap before we cool down towards normal. No significantly below average weather on the way either so we will just slowly drift back towards normal, if we end the month lower than a +2 departure then its a win. 

At least there’s rain which will hopefully end the coming spell of smoky conditions.

[LowerGarfield]

Currently at 58F here. It was 50F an hour ago my early bird spouse says. Certainly feels like fall. Our son has been sleeping with only undergarments of late but last night decided to sleep in all clothes which we have been doing the last few weeks. It feels a bit cold. Later today my spouse and my Father-in-Law will fix one of our broken heaters. The cold season is coming.

[TT-SEA]

Wind map (not gusts) from the 06Z ECMWF.    Flow is back to onshore by Sunday... hopefully there is not too much smoke offshore by that point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not good for our buddy camping down that way...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cedar Creek Fire is now 31,486 acres. 

http://inciweb.nwcg.gov/photos/ORWIF/2022-08-04-1707-Cedar-Creek-Fire/picts/2022_09_08-08.46.11.645-CDT.jpeg

[Phishy Wx]

I hate smoke season.  thinking we might head to the east coast and post up at the beach in SC until early to mid October at the Condo like we did last year.  was hoping we were going to miss the smoke this summer, oof.  maybe get some Tropical WX out of it too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those fires in the N Washington Cascades are actually pretty small. 

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

10-day rain total per 00Z ECMWF... 

When can we start banking on that Euro precip accuracy we have heard so much about

Asking for a friend.

 

[ChrisEl Elyon]

41° this morning at OLM

54° here in Belltown Seattle 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

When can we start banking on that Euro precip accuracy we have heard so much about

Asking for a friend.

 

That depends on the time frame.    The mid and long range accuracy is dependent on having the 500mb pattern right.   Its great with surface details inside of 3 days when the 500mb pattern is locked in.