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21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Sounds like Packwood might be under the gun.

A fire that started a month ago too...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sun becoming further obscured and ash starting to fall…

Our kids won’t know what it’s like to live in a place here that isn’t threatened by fires every year.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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68F, but the smoke is getting kind of mediocre.  I think the smoke will keep temps down.  Here is the forecast for the next few days.  They are expecting the worst of this to be done by Monday. 

If we are lucky, the smoke that blows offshore is just is pushed further out into the Pacific and never comes back. Better than blowing back onshore into our faces.

 

1219199781_ScreenShot2022-09-09at2_23_19PM.thumb.png.5b7baa2d72458a8c8646d59ba94781f3.png2065509146_ScreenShot2022-09-09at2_25_31PM.thumb.png.4f00a2e9328347d47db8c82fd6c88ebd.png752439409_ScreenShot2022-09-09at2_25_38PM.thumb.png.c856c82e0c337ae2a7fac69db38fd4e6.png789093928_ScreenShot2022-09-09at2_25_41PM.thumb.png.b8b3224262e6913ec7f81138373ba703.png

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Really strong signal for Alaska troughing on the 12Z EPS in the long range.  This about as strong as it gets at 15 days out.  Hopefully the ECMWF is right and we get a big rain event in between.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-3977600 (1).png

Not gonna get too worked up about something 15 days out in a model run.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sun becoming further obscured and ash starting to fall…

Our kids won’t know what it’s like to live in a place here that isn’t threatened by fires every year.

Don’t look now (or, rather, do) but I think KEUG just scored another touchdown.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not gonna get too worked up about something 15 days out in a model run.

Neither am I.   

Just noting an unusually strong long range signal on the EPS. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Smoke is thinning and clearing here now as the back edge of the main wave of smoke that moved in from eastern WA overnight continues to move west.  

Unfortunately all the smoke moving westward today is going to come back eastward when onshore flow returns later in the weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Today is running WAY cooler than forecast thanks to the smoke and winds. Highly doubt now SEA will even get to 80. Smoke is expected to be thicker tomorrow, so it looks like the 90 won’t happen. 

In theory... tomorrow could be better in the Seattle area with an east wind because there are no major fires directly to our east.   Its clearing out here from east to west and I can see the Cascades again.   Of course that could change quickly.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In theory... tomorrow could be better in the Seattle area with an east wind because there are no major fires directly to our east.   Its clearing out here from east to west and I can see the Cascades again.   Of course that could change quickly.  

I guess it could be warmer at SEA. We’ll see. 

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And tack on another one…

FCB2CCF4-50AF-430A-8A9A-7E4B57C9260C.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Smoke is thinning and clearing here now as the back edge of the main wave of smoke that moved in from eastern WA overnight continues to move west.  

Unfortunately all the smoke moving westward today is going to come back eastward when onshore flow returns later in the weekend.

Shockingly Winthrop totally clear now of smoke. Leavenworth suddenly improving. Maybe will get lucky tomorrow. 

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17 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Wow, almost dark outside now at 3:20 p.m. That is one thick smoke deck. Fortunately not mixing down much as yet. Wind is calm. Just 84º thanks to the smoke and limited mixing. Only 1.5 hours before the power is supposed to be shut off.

Is this for all of EWEB and SUB?

Starting to feel like we live on another planet 😔

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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18z GFS has a convective outbreak Monday, centered over the Sound. Flow is vertically oriented to the SSW and PWAT's are above 1" w/ deep tropical moisture entrenched in the prevailing winds, so fire starts are less of a concern. RGEM concurs.

I know I sound like a broken record, but it really does have shades of 9/7/19, albeit with weaker diffluence aloft and a more closed off low offshore. The latter of the differences may be neither a good or a bad thing, just a notable difference.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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23 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Wow, almost dark outside now at 3:20 p.m. That is one thick smoke deck. Fortunately not mixing down much as yet. Wind is calm. Just 84º thanks to the smoke and limited mixing. Only 1.5 hours before the power is supposed to be shut off.

That's one absurdly thick smoke plume. The sky is milky white up here but we're lucky compared to most of the region.

G2ghuOM.png

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We’re in the goddam upside down…

03AFB027-B4AD-4D34-BDC1-30F8C2ED6875.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, Dave said:

Cedar Creek fire is showing up on doppler. It's really smokey here now. By far the worst since 2020.

KMAX - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 4:07 PM 1.4 MB · 3 downloads

The visible satellite is pretty crazy. You can see the shear as the smoke column reached the 300mb level.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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This event perfectly shows how a CCG can work with the winds blowing all the way over the Cascades and down the rivers like this.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Mesoscale modes definitely overdo the surface winds in situations like this but it's worth mentioning that the HRRR and the NAM have a pretty significant push of stronger winds in the early morning hours for the Clark County foothills. The EURO agrees with this to an extent, with the most powerful gusts in the region over areas like Larch and Silver Star. Wonder if some of the stronger solutions have anything to do with the development of a mountain wave?

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--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Mesoscale modes definitely overdo the surface winds in situations like this but it's worth mentioning that the HRRR and the NAM have a pretty significant push of stronger winds in the early morning hours for the Clark County foothills. The EURO agrees with this to an extent, with the most powerful gusts in the region over areas like Larch and Silver Star. Wonder if some of the stronger solutions have anything to do with the development of a mountain wave?

Yeah, WRF caught on to this as well. Kinda weird but possible I suppose as the valley inversions return.

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