PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Tyler Mode]

Nice to see a little bit of rain on/near some of the fires.  Wish it was much more.

[MossMan]

7 hours ago, Cloud said:

Euro is still insisting on some showers tomorrow morning while the GFS is dry. Guess we’ll find out. 

I have a wet (now gooey chalky wet ashy) deck. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Air quality is now in the unhealthy range. Can't see the mountains this morning.

There are some showers on the radar. In fact, I’m getting a few sprinkles right now. Hope the showers intensify and help clear this gunk out.

[Winterdog]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I have a wet (now gooey chalky wet ashy) deck. 

 

No moisture here at all.  Had a low of 49 and 58 now.  The smoke is way worse here than it has been and the smell is very strong.

[Randyc321]

14 hours ago, Cloud said:

They’ve done it!! Pulled out a last minute 90+ for #13

I am surprised at all the 90s around the area yesterday.  I think it stayed below 75 here all day.  Smokey, but coolish.

Curently 63 and HAZY

[Doinko]

The air quality is still 150 here

[Rubus Leucodermis]

AQI up to 200 now. Really smells smoky outside. Going to be hanging around home with the HEPA filter running until it clears.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[Cloud]

Can’t really imagine why half of these people are refusing to leave.  But it’s ultimately their choice… 

 

[Cloud]

The numbers this morning. 7600+ acres. 

 

[Doinko]

The Cedar Creek fire is at 85,926 acres burned

[Frontal Snowsquall]

20 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The air quality is still 150 here

Relief is on the way. We hopefully should be smoke free by later this afternoon here in the PDX Metro area.

 

[MossMan]

Stopped by the lake house real quick..started pouring while I was there, raindrops hitting the lake for proof! And I REALLY wish I had put the big full cover on the boat last week…

[Cloud]

Smoke aloft is still around west of the cascades accompanying cloud cover. Worst of it is east of the cascades and continuing to push that way. Hopefully should continue to approve. 
 

the 2 major fires we have in OR and WA needs to be contained though. 

[ShawniganLake]

8 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

Using the latest satellite data, this is roughly the boundaries of the Bolt Creek Fire to the best of their knowledge currently.  It looks like it has jumped the power pole lines and in one area, across US 2.  It may have also jumped the Skykomish River??  I hope what this is showing isn't true... but we may have lost the towns of Grotto and Baring.  

As winds shift, Skykomish isn't out of the risk zone either. 

 

 

If those are estimates based off heat produced by the fire, then they can be misleading.  (Hopefully in this case). Depending on the wind and how the smoke and ash cloud is moving and rising the satellite will pick up heat signatures outside of the actual burn zone on the ground.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

49 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Can’t really imagine why half of these people are refusing to leave.  But it’s ultimately their choice… 

“I’m not going to let those big-government elitists with their fancy book learning be the boss of me!”

[Tyler Mode]

1 hour ago, Eujunga said:

Power finally back on after a 38.5-hour outage. Not sure what took them so long, as it was evident early on that we weren't going to have any sort of dangerous east wind event here. I was basically without internet or water during that time as well, since the pressure tank doesn't work, and cellular data service is very slow or exists not at all here.

Still plenty of smoke in the air but it's not too smelly. Got down to 59º last night. Dew point up to 56º.

I think they had to check the lines before they re-energized them.

[Cloud]

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

 

It’s a mixed blessing. Marine pushes cause gap winds on the eastern slopes that can exacerbate fire conditions there.

[NWbyNW]

Lot's of updates overnight.  Overall for most of us here on the forums, air quality is still soup.  The south sound saw some improvement overnight, while the north sound declined in air quality today.

Today we have learned the actual size estimate of the Bolt Creek Fire is not 9,000 acres like reported yesterday, but 7,600 acres.  We also now have outlines showing it's scope on maps. 

Lastly here is the latest satellite map show a layer of clouds over Western Washington, but still a ton of smoke.  Smoke is going to linger longer than the weather forecasters keep saying.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like tropical moisture is being pulled up ahead of that weak trough offshore... rain on the radar heading towards Seattle now.

[NWbyNW]

Here are some stations pulled up.  Conditions have certainly not improved for the North Sound.  Included below is also Index's station.  We are seeing hazardous air quality out there. Because of the Bolt Creek Fire, I certainly hope this isn't a long-term issue.  Shifting winds should push it and bunch it up in the Cascade's or move it east. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 70+ degree high streak at SEA might end on Tuesday.   ECMWF has been trending towards keeping the marine layer in place all day and now only shows 66 that day.

[TacomaWx]

Currently in kelso driving home. Pretty smoky on the drive home everywhere so far. particularly inbetween madras and mount hood on the way up. It’s raining a bit here now. 

[Cloud]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the 70+ degree high streak at SEA might end on Tuesday.   ECMWF has been trending towards keeping the marine layer in place all day and now only shows 66 that day.

Yeah, even on the phone app I’m continuing to see this day gets cooler and cooler. Now just 69 for the city and 70 for SEA. Quite close. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is having none of that ULL cutting off scenario that other models are showing for next weekend.

[snow_wizard]

The visible sat pic is just nasty today. The entire NW looks like an ashtray full of smoldering cigarette butts. 

[Randyc321]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like tropical moisture is being pulled up ahead of that weak trough offshore... rain on the radar heading towards Seattle now.

I would like to believe that that moisture stream is going to come this far North, but I don't.

It does look like you will get rain, but it looks like it flows East of here.  Hope I am wrong.

What are your thoughts Tim.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Currently in kelso driving home. Pretty smoky on the drive home everywhere so far. particularly inbetween madras and mount hood on the way up. It’s raining a bit here now. 

The dry air left over from yesterday is just eating up the moisture here so far.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF continues to look much sexier with the trough coming up for next weekend.  Much sharper GOA ridge behind it.

[TT-SEA]

Wowzers... and the 12Z ECMWF shows a high in the low 60s one week from today.

[Meatyorologist]

Interesting..

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wowzers... and the 12Z ECMWF shows a high in the low 60s one week from today.

Seems like clockwork and about 48 hours away from the autumnal equinox. 

[kokaneekidz]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Vancouver, Uzbekistan. Nope NEVER HEARD OF IT

[kokaneekidz]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wowzers... and the 12Z ECMWF shows a high in the low 60s one week from today.

Banff looks like the place to be for snow flakes

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wowzers... and the 12Z ECMWF shows a high in the low 60s one week from today.

That is a thing of beauty!  I love troughs like that.  Let's hope for a few of these in January.

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wowzers... and the 12Z ECMWF shows a high in the low 60s one week from today.

goodbye fire season and I hope the door hits you on the way out

[snow_wizard]

The thing that amazes me is I never remember seeing significant smoke from forest fires in this area even once in the 1970s, 80s, or 90s.  Now it happens nearly every year.  Some if it might have to do with the fact they used to put fires out immediately when they discovered smoke, but now they let some of them burn for a while.  That still doesn't explain nearly all of it though.

[snow_wizard]

[Chewbacca Defense]

We had some drops make it to the ground with the band of moisture that passed through earlier this morning.  It wasn't even enough to get the ground wet, but it did cool the air and reduce the smell of smoke for an hour or so.  Back to very warm and smoky now.  Feels a lot warmer than what the thermometer is saying (75).