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14 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Made some new friends down here in Bend.

Not too smokey at the moment but we’ll see what tomorrow brings. Was crazy smokey around Camp Sherman but then almost clear in Sisters. There was a really sharp edge to it.  This was about 3:30.  

C23047A0-8F60-42A8-9603-5AFE3037A22F.jpeg

Probably drove by you on my way back home today. 

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Hmmmm....The 18z EPS is even deeper with the trough at day 6 than the 12z run was.

1663437600-bOy1eWl4hSk.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Climate change plus the consequences of 150 years of fire suppression on a naturally fire-prone landscape. As Tim posted earlier: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109

Like it or not, an annual smoke season is here to stay.

Like in 2019? 

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Any speculation on why the models so totally missed most of the clouds and pretty much all of the rain today / tonight?  I'm thinking it has something to do with the basic fact it's almost unheard of for us to get moisture here from an old Baja Hurricane.

I read something today about the incredible lack of action over the Atlantic this season.  One article stated there have been at least 8 weird things about this season so far.  Something is definitely screwy this year.

 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Any speculation on why the models so totally missed most of the clouds and pretty much all of the rain today / tonight?  I'm thinking it has something to do with the basic fact it's almost unheard of for us to get moisture here from an old Baja Hurricane.

I read something today about the incredible lack of action over the Atlantic this season.  One article stated there have been at least 8 weird things about this season so far.  Something is definitely screwy this year.

 

I was just thinking this… it was a whiff by all the models. And I honestly have no speculation as to why either.

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36 minutes ago, Phil said:

Like in 2019? 

I honestly can’t remember, and it really doesn’t much matter. There has been a smoke season in almost all recent summers. If an odd summer does not have one, it is merely an exception that proves a general rule.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Any speculation on why the models so totally missed most of the clouds and pretty much all of the rain today / tonight?  I'm thinking it has something to do with the basic fact it's almost unheard of for us to get moisture here from an old Baja Hurricane.

I read something today about the incredible lack of action over the Atlantic this season.  One article stated there have been at least 8 weird things about this season so far.  Something is definitely screwy this year.

 

Models were pretty aware of this midlevel cloudcover and spotty rain today, I'd been eyeing them for a week and expected exactly this today. Only thing they got wrong was the sfc temp response, which is pretty typical and has happened many times already this summer. That and the one lightning strike over PDX; that was a pretty well timed sliver of moist air aloft coupled with a localized area of convergence around 800mb.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Models were pretty aware of this midlevel cloudcover and spotty rain today, I'd been eyeing them for a week and expected exactly this today. Only thing they got wrong was the sfc temp response, which is pretty typical and has happened many times already this summer. That and the one lightning strike over PDX; that was a pretty well timed sliver of moist air aloft coupled with a localized area of convergence around 800mb.

That was actually the only rumble of thunder I've heard this year so far. I saw lightning on August 9th but it was really far away to the SW.

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3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That was actually the only rumble of thunder I've heard this year so far. I saw lightning on August 9th but it was really far away to the SW.

Ouch. Up here at least I had a decent morning storm back in June, then a sideswipe in early August. PDX got shafted hard in the storm department this year. Glad you at least got something.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ouch. Up here at least I had a decent morning storm back in June, then a sideswipe in early August. PDX got shafted hard in the storm department this year. Glad you at least got something.

Yeah the only rumbles of thunder I've heard in the past two years here were today and March 2021. Hopefully we can see something later this fall or next year!

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah the only rumbles of thunder I've heard in the past two years here were today and March 2021. Hopefully we can see something later this fall or next year!

Goddamn. You are due and then some. And y'all are actually in a better spot for warm season storms than Seattle!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

12z EPS vs 18z GEFS only 6 days out. does anyone have any thoughts about which model suite is the superior model we should lean towards here? I don’t think I’ve seen it discussed much. 🤔🤔🤔🤔

 

5573A935-0D0D-4873-85BA-B2FA427FFDB9.png

A879047B-98E4-499E-89F0-BFDC3A967A34.png

only when it FITS his AGENDA!!!11!!!!!1

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t know if I’d say there’s much of a difference between the two metro areas.

PDX is more inland, and usually closer to sites of initiation during our better setups. On a day like today though with minimal sfc influence it doesn't really matter, no.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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50 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Models were pretty aware of this midlevel cloudcover and spotty rain today, I'd been eyeing them for a week and expected exactly this today. Only thing they got wrong was the sfc temp response, which is pretty typical and has happened many times already this summer. That and the one lightning strike over PDX; that was a pretty well timed sliver of moist air aloft coupled with a localized area of convergence around 800mb.

The precip has been a lot more extensive than what either the GFS or ECMF showed.  Even the ECMWF was way too high on temps today if you look at yesterday's runs.  Pretty big miss.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The 0z GFS looks better for the weekend trough, but still nothing like the ECMWF.  I'm betting the ECMWF will stick to its guns.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The precip has been a lot more extensive than what either the GFS or ECMF showed.  Even the ECMWF was way too high on temps today if you look at yesterday's runs.  Pretty big miss.

It appears more extensive on radar, but not much of it is making the ground. Like you said yesterday, the air is pretty dry below ~600mb.

Remember, those simulated reflectivity maps you see on Tropical Tidbits/PivotalWx are simulating what a radar beam at 1000ft above the ground would show. The scans returning from KATX and KRTX are showing the precip at 3, 5 even 10 thousand or more ft above the surface, not just 1000'.

This is with the exception of the immediate vicinity of the actual radar sites themselves, where the beams start near the surface before drifting astray. Those areas are by no coincidence pretty clear of large rain bands when looking on my radar app. This is also why the returns appear to "weaken" and "strengthen" as they approach/drift away from radar.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

PDX is more inland, and usually closer to sites of initiation during our better setups. On a day like today though with minimal sfc influence it doesn't really matter, no.

Surface-based warm season convection is pretty rare for both spots. More typically we’re dealing with mid level stuff, like today, in moderate to strong diffluent or southerly flow. Then it just comes down to the randomness of shortwave triggers. Both are in about the same proximity to mountainous areas as well. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Surface-based warm season convection is pretty rare for both spots. More typically we’re dealing with mid level stuff, like today, in moderate to strong diffluent or southerly flow. Then it just comes down to the randomness of shortwave triggers. Both are in about the same proximity to mountainous areas as well. 

Surface based warm core convection is rare, but when it does occur, and it does happen occasionally (more often in the PDX area than Seattle), PDX does have the advantage. Never said it was a massive one... The two cities are fairly comparable.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Ooohhh!  Good improvement on the GEFS.  Looks like a nice taste of autumn weather is very near.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Significantly warmer here today (81F) than yesterday (74F). Yesterday we were directly under the smoke plume, but today there was just a lot of low level stuff and the high level stuff didn't block out the sun to limit solar radiation as much. Almost certainly it was my last 80+ day of the year here.

I ended up with seventeen 80+ days here this summer which was the second most behind 2015. Once again here's my stats from the last decade or so:

2011: 1
2012: 2
2013: 2
2014: 14
2015: 19
2016: 9
2017: 14
2018: 16
2021: 15
2022: 17

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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12 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Significantly warmer here today (81F) than yesterday (74F). Yesterday we were directly under the smoke plume, but today there was just a lot of low level stuff and the high level stuff didn't block out the sun to limit solar radiation as much. Almost certainly it was my last 80+ day of the year here.

I ended up with seventeen 80+ days here this summer which was the second most behind 2015. Once again here's my stats from the last decade or so:

2011: 1
2012: 2
2013: 2
2014: 14
2015: 19
2016: 9
2017: 14
2018: 16
2021: 15
2022: 17

The numbers since 2013 have been amazing for up there.  Today was a totally different story here.  92 yesterday and 73 today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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