PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Nice cell over Washington and Columbia County right now. 

Yup raining pretty nicely here

[Cloud]

It is looking  likely that SEA will end its 70+ streak on Tuesday. No models agreement though. GFS is floundering  with its outputs run to run while the EURO sticks to its gun. Might have to go with the Euro on this one due to consistency and it'll be close! 

[TacomaWx]

Ground has been wet for hours but we finally managed 0.01”. First measurable precip since 9/3. Smoke smell has been gone for a few hours now too. 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Ground has been wet for hours but we finally managed 0.01”. First measurable precip since 9/3. Smoke smell has been gone for a few hours now too. 

We had a brief light rain but it’s back to mostly drizzle now. Just a trace and smoky still and appears to be upper level stuff, visibility is quite good. Air quality is also improved. 

[TacomaWx]

22 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Significantly warmer here today (81F) than yesterday (74F). Yesterday we were directly under the smoke plume, but today there was just a lot of low level stuff and the high level stuff didn't block out the sun to limit solar radiation as much. Almost certainly it was my last 80+ day of the year here.

I ended up with seventeen 80+ days here this summer which was the second most behind 2015. Once again here's my stats from the last decade or so:

2011: 1
2012: 2
2013: 2
2014: 14
2015: 19
2016: 9
2017: 14
2018: 16
2021: 15
2022: 17

Final numbers here during that same period. 
2011 +80-15 +85-0 +90-0

2012 +80-12 +85-6 +90-3

2013 +80-25 +85-6 +90-1

2014 +80-35 +85-13 +90-3

2015 +80-40 +85-19 +90-5

2016 +80-27 +85-8  +90-4

2017 +80-34 +85-9 +90-2

2018 +80-31 +85-18 +90-1

2019 +80-17 +85-2 +90-1

2020 +80-17 +85-4 +90-1

2021 +80-35 +85-13 +90-5

2022 +80-30 +85-17 +90-7

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

We had a brief light rain but it’s back to mostly drizzle now. Just a trace and smoky still and appears to be upper level stuff, visibility is quite good. Air quality is also improved. 

It’s not much but anything helps to scour out the smoke. 

[TacomaWx]

62 currently…just might sneak in our 21st +60 low of the year. Our previous record we just set last year was 18. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I honestly can’t remember, and it really doesn’t much matter. There has been a smoke season in almost all recent summers. If an odd summer does not have one, it is merely an exception that proves a general rule.

Recency bias is easy to fall victim to.

[Perturbed Member]

37 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Nice cell over Washington and Columbia County right now. 

It has been coming down really nicely. Real measurable rain. Pretty happy to see it. Air smelling much better. 

[Phil]

It’s not a “new normal” any more than the 1930s dustbowl was in the Plains. And that was a much larger anomaly, relatively speaking.

[snow_wizard]

The evolution of the ECMWF is nothing short of weather porn.  My absolute favorite configuration.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s not a “new normal” any more than the 1930s dustbowl was in the Plains. And that was a much larger anomaly, relatively speaking.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109

2 of the 3 factors referenced involve/hinge on the continued expansion of drought conditions, which is far from guaranteed.

The 2019 fire season was basically nonexistent, and all it took was a somewhat wetter/less hot summer following a dry spring.

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

2 of the 3 factors referenced involve/hinge on the continued expansion of drought conditions, which is far from guaranteed.

The 2019 fire season was basically nonexistent, and all it took was a somewhat wetter/less hot summer following a dry spring.

Under your logic why isn't 2019 a recency exception then? 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Under your logic why isn't 2019 a recency exception then? 

But I’m not claiming 2019 will be some new semi-permanent normal. The burden of proof lies on those claiming 2021/22 will be the norm (which, btw, it will not be..bookmark this post for reference a year or two down the road).

[The Blob]

Nice night out to shoot the breeze with coworkers.

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

But I’m not claiming 2019 will be some new semi-permanent normal. The burden of proof lies on those claiming 2021/22 will be the norm (which, btw, it will not be..bookmark this post for reference a year or two down the road).

What are you claiming then? It seems to me that you are claiming that 2019 is the norm rather then exception since you brought it up.
 

Lets not forget that you clearly do not have a great track record on summer weather out west compared to the people that have lived out here our entire lives.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

61F and smoky. Nice night.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

PDX has not managed more than a trace out of these showers. Looks like a lock to break the all-time dry streak on Friday.

48 out of the last 50 days have been above normal. How is that even possible?

The 6z GFS is bone dry through the entire run. That’s getting close to October. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 hours ago, Phil said:

2 of the 3 factors referenced involve/hinge on the continued expansion of drought conditions, which is far from guaranteed.

The 2019 fire season was basically nonexistent, and all it took was a somewhat wetter/less hot summer following a dry spring.

And what about the fire deficit and the little matter of the only time in prehistory with a comparably low fire incidence to the last 150 years or so being the Little Ice Age? Are you thus implying that a return to Little Ice Age conditions is highly probable?

It's a peer reviewed article published a decade ago in a very high-profile journal, and my retraction searches have yet to uncover any, i.e. it has survived significant scrutiny by the experts in the field. I will take that over the pontifications of some guy on the Internet any day.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

61F and smoky. Nice night.

I did not open up any windows last night. Air quality is still thoroughly nasty out there.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

36 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

PDX has not managed more than a trace out of these showers. Looks like a lock to break the all-time dry streak on Friday.

48 out of the last 50 days have been above normal. How is that even possible?

The 6z GFS is bone dry through the entire run. That’s getting close to October. 

This last shower might drop measurable rain at PDX. Nail biter.

[BLI snowman]

Dry streak at PDX is dead with 0.02" of rain there.

[Meatyorologist]

**KPDX dry streak remains. Oh, and it did end up hitting 80F at the airport after all, albeit very briefly.
 

**nothing like some good ol timing to force humility into my soul

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

33 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

This last shower might drop measurable rain at PDX. Nail biter.

We did it! .03”. 

[Meatyorologist]

Meanwhile, managed a decent little thunderstorm band just WSW of Vancouver BC. Missed the city but got close.

[MossMan]

The air smells great this morning! 55. 

[Meatyorologist]

Low 60s in downtown Seattle. Calendar reads September but thermometer suggests July.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Air quality is finally starting to improve here.

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 59 this morning. Very warm and dry start to the month so far…we’re +5.6 MTD with just 0.04” of rain to show for it. Can’t wait for some decent fall rains and cooler temps to end the fire season. 

[MossMan]

Rain drops are falling on my head. 

[T-Town]

Extremely smoky here in Bend. Just within the last 30 minutes it’s gotten way worse. Looks like there are some showers in the area that must have caused a wind shift and pushed the smoke into the area. 

[Omegaraptor]

Smells fresh outside!

[RentonHill]

Absolutely awful i. Wenatchee 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Not looking very promising for coastal drizzle with the reverse clearing pattern.

[kokaneekidz]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Absolutely awful i. Wenatchee 

How was 97 or are you coming back?

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

How was 97 or are you coming back?

Which part? I’m omw to twisp. Blewett was fine

[Winterdog]

Still smokey and smelly here.  No measurable precip here since the 27th of August.  A not so low of 57 and now up to 63 under murky skies.

[HoodCanalBridge]

Got off night shift early this morning.   Very light non measureable precip (just a few drops) up on our part of the cedar creek fire.   Parts of the fire are still active.

when we got into the town of Oakridge there were puddles on the road and the wipers remained on!

Oakridge is definitely not all the way out of the woods but things are for sure looking better then they were the other day!

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Kayla said:

What are you claiming then? It seems to me that you are claiming that 2019 is the norm rather then exception since you brought it up.

Lets not forget that you clearly do not have a great track record on summer weather out west compared to the people that have lived out here our entire lives.

That doesn’t make a lick of sense. I brought it up because it was only three years ago, and despite a mediocre pattern, it was one of the quietest fire seasons in the last 50 years.

And you predicted a cool August this year.  I always thought late summer would be warm/dry. The only month I missed was July. Please sit down.