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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Days with a trace aren’t included in that tally. Rain falls from the sky 200+ days per year in North Bend.

Deal with it.

Completely irrelevant to me.  Even within the 180 days with measurable rain... many aren't rainy days.  You can steal many nice days out of that rainy column.   It can rain on 365 days a year if at least half the days are nice and don't feel like rainy days.   I always keep my complaints in relation to climo for this area.  I know it rains most of Nov-Jan... it is expected.  We travel then. Many people have second homes to cover that period.   But this past spring was far from climo.   And this summer has been as well.   Too extreme in both directions.   Which I guess nets to climo over a longer period but still too extreme by season for my liking.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

I know that no one cares about these posts except for me, but smoke has been eeking back into the central Puget Sound and has brought air quality from good, back down to moderate.  The same can be said for the Lower Mainland with smoke coming through the Fraser River outflow again.  Conditions look like they will worsen overnight and into the morning.  Onshore flow should clear the skies again tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2022-09-14 at 12.07.06 AM.png

These updates are greatly appreciated.   And you were definitely right with the concern that the models often scour out smoke faster than reality.   Probably the same physics involved when the models scour out cold air too fast.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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@Meatyorologist  The ECMWF actually looks similar to the GFS this weekend with colder temps down south on Saturday and the Seattle area barely getting to 60 on Sunday.   So there is agreement on the general features and the GFS is not really so outlandish.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-3459200.png

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-3545600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

I know that no one cares about these posts except for me, but smoke has been eeking back into the central Puget Sound and has brought air quality from good, back down to moderate.  The same can be said for the Lower Mainland with smoke coming through the Fraser River outflow again.  Conditions look like they will worsen overnight and into the morning.  Onshore flow should clear the skies again tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2022-09-14 at 12.07.06 AM.png

These updates are great and unanimously loved. Without exaggeration, the exact kind of posts this forum was made for. I, and many others, will be sad the day you stop.

so plz dont!!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I completely understand this... thanks for the honesty!    And I agree that if its raining and 50 degrees at 4 p.m. its sort of irrelevant if the high was 65.   It's still impressive.   

It's the same thing as saying a day with .05 that falls before dawn and is sunny in the afternoon is not really a "rainy day".  Although for statistical purposes it is a technically a rainy day and is meaningful in terms of averages for the month and streaks etc.  

i am an irrational, hopeless fool. i am okay with that. i love adding extra shades of blue to my weather graphs, and extra toppings to my fire roasted franks.

MY snowmaps, MY choice!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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I just realized that I was looking at the GFS for the weekend temps and thought it was the ECMWF.   My bad.   The 06Z ECMWF was actually quite chilly both north and south on Saturday.    Some places will likely have highs in the 50s that day.   And that is without stratiform rain.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-3459200 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-3459200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

I know that no one cares about these posts except for me, but smoke has been eeking back into the central Puget Sound and has brought air quality from good, back down to moderate.  The same can be said for the Lower Mainland with smoke coming through the Fraser River outflow again.  Conditions look like they will worsen overnight and into the morning.  Onshore flow should clear the skies again tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2022-09-14 at 12.07.06 AM.png

The smoke has never really stopped seeping eastward along the Fraser Valley from the fires near Hope and in Manning Provincial Park. It never really even got down to moderate here; it was right on the line between moderate and unhealthy for sensitive groups for about 36 hours. Now it’s back into USG territory.

I guess my condolence is that it could be worse; it AQI could be in the 300+ hazardous range for days in a row like it has been some years.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

I know that no one cares about these posts except for me, but smoke has been eeking back into the central Puget Sound and has brought air quality from good, back down to moderate.  The same can be said for the Lower Mainland with smoke coming through the Fraser River outflow again.  Conditions look like they will worsen overnight and into the morning.  Onshore flow should clear the skies again tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2022-09-14 at 12.07.06 AM.png

Following up on this... the visible satellite this morning still has that smoky look.  

 

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.truecolor.20220914.142617-over=map-bars=.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wettish deck and 54 degrees. 

72EF2538-8BF8-44ED-B2F1-678930AA2EC2.jpeg

The spirit of Tim in that dog showing us how he feels about the current conditions.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

raining and smoke here this morning, 60.

 

So what's on the Argument Menu for today you guys????!!!

They’re still preparing their notes. We should open with a ceremonial morning bowl smoke and a coke.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Current AQI of 34 of Good as we had showers roll throgh. Only .03 at my location though some may have evaporated as a nearby station recorded .13. 

Son has not been doing well with the smoke so I'm glad for a brief respite so I opened our doors and windows. 55F degrees and cloudy. Grass and cars are wet.

edit: 0.03 and not .003

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Back after a couple days up on the Kalama fire. It had some explosive growth on Friday and Saturday, the nearby horse camp needed to be evacuated along with the whole nearby forest road corridor. It’s calmed down quite a bit now though. Rain the other morning and higher humidity/cooler temps the last few days have really helped. Holding at a little over 100 acres, mostly on steep terrain. No infrastructure has been affected yet, fortunately, but roads are still closed in the area.

A typically mild morning here back in town. Overcast with a low of just 61 so far.

That's awesome to hear. Our fire blew up again yesterday after a few quiet days. The Caldor fire even sprang back to life yesterday from a tree stump that had been smoldering since last Aug! They dropped retardant on it and kept it to 4 acres. Kind of crazy that a fire can smolder through winter. 

Capture.JPG

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I just realized that I was looking at the GFS for the weekend temps and thought it was the ECMWF.   My bad.   The 06Z ECMWF was actually quite chilly both north and south on Saturday.    Some places will likely have highs in the 50s that day.   And that is without stratiform rain.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-3459200 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-3459200.png

A high of 62 at SLE would have to be close to a record. I see NWS is going with 57 up here that day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

That's awesome to hear. Our fire blew up again yesterday after a few quiet days. The Caldor fire even sprang back to life yesterday from a tree stump that had been smoldering since last Aug! They dropped retardant on it and kept it to 4 acres. Kind of crazy that a fire can smolder through winter. 

Capture.JPG

Wow, that's insane! I've heard of that happening before, but wild to think it can get buried in feet of snow and still hang on in the roots/underground.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Wow, that's insane! I've heard of that happening before, but wild to think it can get buried in feet of snow and still hang on in the roots/underground.

Yes, the Beachie Creek Fire reignited a couple of times during our very dry spring of 2021. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like SLE's min max on Saturday is 58 from 1910, at Silver Falls it is 55 from 1997. 

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Appreciate the added bonus of getting to see your dog doing his business.   😀

Haha she wasn’t about to go, she was getting ready to stretch out her 15yr old muscles! 😀 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, Chris said:

He's going to quote this one back at you when you're complaining about humidity.

His complaining is quite a bit less than 10 years ago.  Baby steps.

I remember 2010 Tim.

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12 minutes ago, Chris said:

He's going to quote this one back at you when you're complaining about humidity.

His complaining is quite a bit less than 10 years ago.  Baby steps.

I almost posted the following in response:

Quote

Living in North Bend and complaining about rain is like living in Maryland and complaining about humid summers. You get what you pay for.

 

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Every site seems to have a different AQI for my area, but it looks like we're finally about to drop into the "green" is good category with values less than 50 up here. Still looks a touch hazy out there, the foothills aren't super clear, but that may also be because of the low clouds in the air. As others have mentioned, this has still been so much better than 2020 when AQI was over 200 for more than a week.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Every site seems to have a different AQI for my area, but it looks like we're finally about to drop into the "green" is good category with values less than 50 up here. Still looks a touch hazy out there, the foothills aren't super clear, but that may also be because of the low clouds in the air. As others have mentioned, this has still been so much better than 2020 when AQI was over 200 for more than a week.

AQI is around 110 here this morning. Slightly worse than yesterday.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2022 Tim might look pretty similar with 2010 weather.....

Nope.    I have learned a great deal since then and being 12 years older also plays a factor like it does for everyone.   I recently watched the satellite loop for that entire summer... it was much better than I remembered.    Lots of morning clouds burning off and sunny afternoons.    And a 30-day rainy streak from mid May through mid June was child's play compared to late March through mid-June of 2022.   This year set the bar for spring to floor... with rain for almost 90 days straight.   Anything else will seem better by comparison.    This summer also made me a believer in our warming summer climate being much more of a permanent thing (obviously not forever but it might seem like it).

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nope.    I have learned a great deal since then and being 12 years older also plays a factor like it does for everyone.   I recently watched the satellite loop for that entire summer... it was much better than I remembered.    Lots of morning clouds burning off and sunny afternoons.    And a 30-day rainy streak from mid May through mid June was child's play compared to late March through mid-June of 2022.   This year set the bar for spring to floor... with rain for almost 90 days straight.   Anything else will seem better by comparison.    This summer also made me a believer in our warming summer climate being much more of a permanent thing (obviously not forever but it might seem like it).

Yeah, you made so many good posts this spring. This comment totally convinces me that you don’t have the mentality of a selfish toddler. Thanks for clearing it up. 

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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

raining and smoke here this morning, 60.

 

So what's on the Argument Menu for today you guys????!!!

Something for EVERYONE to hate! 🥰

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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12Z ECMWF is quite chilly for Saturday but almost totally dry for western WA and OR.

Sunday is also dry and quite a bit more sunny and about 10 degrees warmer than Saturday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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