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8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Great for the Bay Area. Not so great for us.

They need it much more... getting significant rain into central CA in September is pretty rare.

This will help the situation down there:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-west-total_precip_inch-3718400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Such a boring time of year weatherwise, but so pleasant. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Really nice euro run IMO. Getting significant rain down in California would bode well for everyone on the west coast. Some light precipitation up here too should keep the fire activity across the region to a minimum. 

Yeah pretty much ends fire season in the Bay Area. Or at least staves it off for some time.

Decent chance Redding might pull off a sub-70 high on Sunday as well. Early for there.

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3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it’s been pretty tame lately besides the smoke intrusion this weekend which wasn’t very exciting itself. Has been much more pleasant lately though cooler and shorter days is nice. 

The cooler weather feels great and it's about to get quite a bit cooler yet.  I am getting a bit surprised by how the dry conditions are expected to drag on though.  Obviously troughs don't always equate to much rain.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

67 here and cloudy after a low of 59 feels good outside. 

My only gripe the last couple of days is the lame min temps.  That is about to change though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it’s been pretty tame lately besides the smoke intrusion this weekend which wasn’t very exciting itself. Has been much more pleasant lately though cooler and shorter days is nice. 

Yeah even the heat once we get into September really loses its bite, especially at 1600'. We are very likely done with 80 degree temps, and even hitting 75 might be a stretch from here on out. By the 2nd week of October our record highs are in the 70s. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Would be nice to do something about these ridiculously warm lows. Low of 53 this morning which is a +9 departure, record low for the date is 27 in 1970. Average high is 73 still so we should be 5-6 degrees below that today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would be nice to do something about these ridiculously warm lows. Low of 53 this morning which is a +9 departure, record low for the date is 27 in 1970. Average high is 73 still so we should be 5-6 degrees below that today. 

The lows here have really sucked the last couple of days...low 60s.  I did have a nice run of 40s last week though.

Are you sure your current average low is 44?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The lows here have really sucked the last couple of days...low 60s.  I did have a nice run of 40s last week though.

Are you sure your current average low is 44?

Yes, that's from the data at the Silver Falls station from 1938-2016. 73/44 is our average for today. By October 1st it drops to 68/41. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Full 12Z EPS run...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1663156800-1663156800-1664452800-10.gif

For someone that lives in the foothills and in the convergence zone of northern WA, it’s really surprising someone thinks the endless summer should go on and on and expect it to be “nice” most of the time. Your 225 days of gloom and drizzle is coming up fast. Just hope you’re ok with it this go ‘round. 

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13 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

For someone that lives in the foothills and in the convergence zone of northern WA, it’s really surprising someone thinks the endless summer should go on and on and expect it to be “nice” most of the time. Your 225 days of gloom and drizzle is coming up fast. Just hope you’re ok with it this go ‘round. 

Either way we are sure to hear quite a bit more about it. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Bone dry Septembers historically aren't a great sign for winter. 2012, 1999, 1993, 1991, 1975. We're probably screwed.

3 of those were normal over here for snow, but 91-92 and 93-94 (snowfall in the mid to upper 40"s) were absolute turds with both less than 20" of snow on the season.

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2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Well out of some dry September's at PDX I'm going to cherrypick 1942, 1990, 1983 and 2008!

3 of those were Ninas.  I still remember 1990.  It was like the weather would never change and then in very early October it got nasty really quick.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Currently high green AQI here. Green to the west and yellow to the north and east. Windows open at 73 degrees. Son stayed home today because the smoke had been bugging him so we had him rest today.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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29 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

For someone that lives in the foothills and in the convergence zone of northern WA, it’s really surprising someone thinks the endless summer should go on and on and expect it to be “nice” most of the time. Your 225 days of gloom and drizzle is coming up fast. Just hope you’re ok with it this go ‘round. 

Surprising?   😀

Summer is never endless here.   Its actually quite short which is why its nice for it to go on as long as it wants.  And it is definitely fall now and feels like fall which is also nice.   But your logic is completely backwards... its because it rains so much here that its nice to have the variety of dry weather.   We never have to worry about the rain.   It always comes.   

I am fine with whatever happens in the late fall and winter.    Nothing bothers me much.    There are sunny days and snowy days to break it up.   And we travel all the time which also breaks it up very nicely.     

Just don't mess with my warm season!   That is the reward here.   My expectations start rising in April and slowly decline through September and October.     Its pretty simple and most people seem to feel the same around here.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah even the heat once we get into September really loses its bite, especially at 1600'. We are very likely done with 80 degree temps, and even hitting 75 might be a stretch from here on out. By the 2nd week of October our record highs are in the 70s. 

Pretty tough to hit 80 here in the second half of September. Never have gotten to 80 in October either. 

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4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I don't get excited until water starts freezing

You live in Spokane so you probably see it more than anyone except Brian, Kayla, and Moss.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Here is the list of September's with less than 0.50" of rain at SLE. Long list, * denotes under 0.25", ** denotes no recorded rainfall. A couple of years had 0.01". Listed chronologically with most recent. As of now SLE has had 0.01" of rain this September. 

2018

2012*

2011

2008

1999*

1993*

1991*

1987

1983

1975**

1974

1965*

1952*

1943*

1942*

1939

1934

1932*

1929

1918*

1915

1908

1904

1903*

1902

1900**

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Also if we look at October in the 26 years in question, they had below average precip in 19 out of 26 years. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

Well out of some dry September's at PDX I'm going to cherrypick 1942, 1990, 1983 and 2008!

September 1983 at least was quite troughy, and barely cracked 80 at PDX. Can't imagine anything like that nowadays. And it came after a very wet late August, as did 2008. The rule of thumb for me is that the longer it takes a ridgy/bone dry summer-like pattern to break down in the fall the worse a sign it tends to be for winter, although there are notable exceptions like 1936.

Edited by BLI snowman
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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Bone dry Septembers historically aren't a great sign for winter. 2012, 1999, 1993, 1991, 1975. We're probably screwed.

OFA ftw.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Surprising?   😀

Summer is never endless here.   Its actually quite short which is why its nice for it to go on as long as it wants.  And it is definitely fall now and feels like fall which is also nice.   But your logic is completely backwards... its because it rains so much here that its nice to have the variety of dry weather.   We never have to worry about the rain.   It always comes.   

I am fine with whatever happens in the late fall and winter.    Nothing bothers me much.    There are sunny days and snowy days to break it up.   And we travel all the time which also breaks it up very nicely.     

Just don't mess with my warm season!   That is the reward here.   My expectations start rising in April and slowly decline through September and October.     Its pretty simple and most people seem to feel the same around here.  

Summer isn't really endless, and neither is drizzle.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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