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It’s getting far enough along we probably need to admit the warning signs for a regional dud are starting to flash.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking back at the SLE data I never realized how dry September/October 2011 were at SLE. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I have never in my life seen the trees this green, this late in the season. Just finally starting to get some yellow color on the ash trees here.

Still looks like mid-July here. Not even a hint of autumn in the landscape right now.

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I don’t usually consider summer/early fall as an indicator for how the winter will play out until November. 

I will need to look deeper into the patterns, but some of the years on the dry September list are alarming. Some great ones too, but more further back. I need to look into the later fall correlations for those years so we can read the tea leaves in real time. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will need to look deeper into the patterns, but some of the years on the dry September list are alarming. Some great ones too, but more further back. I need to look into the later fall correlations for those years so we can read the tea leaves in real time. 

September 2016 was pretty dry in southern Oregon but the following 2 months after were much better.

I'd like to think that month has a bit less of a correlation on general weather than November or October does. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will need to look deeper into the patterns, but some of the years on the dry September list are alarming. Some great ones too, but more further back. I need to look into the later fall correlations for those years so we can read the tea leaves in real time. 

I’m not an analogs expert but if this winter was a dud I don’t think I’d necessarily hang the blame on a warm/dry start to fall. Not really expecting greatness this winter personally but I do think there will be atleast one modest event at some point. 

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I don't know, feels like things globally are topsy-turvy.  I 'm thinking some warmth/dryness and a couple extreme cold/snow events to even things out to about normal for the whole winter, at least on this side of the state.  we haven't been below 0 over here since 3/1/19.  we're due, was almost (with some gaps up to 2 years) an annual thing until about 2010-11 ish

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14 hours ago, Phil said:

That’s crazy esp considering the lack of humidity there. You’d think that would allow temps to rise relatively easily.

It was also tough for K-Falls to hit 90 in October. If I am correct, they have only done this once or twice ever. 

A really good October wave was 2-3 days of ~85 degree highs when I lived there. That usually happens on one day though.

Personal latest >90 is 9/20/2014, and latest >88 on 9/27/2018. Even now at my new place there aren't a lot of 90's this time of the year recorded after the middle of September. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I don’t usually consider summer/early fall as an indicator for how the winter will play out until November. 

October 1949 and October 2019 were both very cold / blocky Octobers West-wide.

One led to one of the greatest DJFs ever recorded, the other led to a steaming pile of shitt

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

edit: the other 2 years with no Atlantic Hurricanes in August were 1961 and 1997

 

61-62 is pretty snowy in Spokane (67") but 97-98 part the record is missing for some of the season (95-96 is the same for KGEG) not sure what happened those 2 seasons but 97-98 looks dry

There was a 16-20" snowstorm around Thanksgiving in 1961 down in K-Falls. 

A January 2017 style snow event in November is mega impressive. I think even 1955 and 1985 didn't have a singular storm like that, but those were pretty snowy Novembers for sure.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

edit: the other 2 years with no Atlantic Hurricanes in August were 1961 and 1997

 

61-62 is pretty snowy in Spokane (67") but 97-98 part the record is missing for some of the season (95-96 is the same for KGEG) not sure what happened those 2 seasons but 97-98 looks dry.

1967/68 is an analog to watch IMO.

This tweet is as of 8/31. Obviously there have been hurricanes since, but the point stands.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

1967 is an analog to watch.

This tweet is as of 8/31. Obviously there have been hurricanes since, but the point stands.

 

I read somewhere that 2002-03 was a great winter here.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I read somewhere that 2002-03 was a great winter here.  😀

That was an El Niño so probably off the list (though I’d love a repeat of that one personally).

But the lack of Atlantic tropical activity has me somewhat bullish for a cold winter here (or at least periods with substantial cold) for the first time in awhile. Assuming it continues. It’s one of the variables I’ve always looked at, as it has been surprisingly predictive when accounting for other variables.

Not over yet, though. Both the 2001 and 1988 hurricane seasons turned on and became active at the last minute, and those winters ended up warm. Need to see activity remain suppressed through October for any kind of statistical relationship to hold outside that which is explained by ENSO.

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The -ENSO years that remained quiet through the rest of the season (1967/68, 1984/85, and 2013/14) all had record breaking cold out this way.

On the other hand, 2001 got very active at last second and finished 8 hurricanes (IIRC), and that winter ended up torching here. The 1988 season turned on late as well.

So the next 5 weeks could be telling.

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24 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I guess I should have said 61 and 97 were the only years since 1950 with no tropical activity at all in August in the Atlantic

 

 

I think it’s 1962 you’re thinking of, not 1961, which was very active in the Atlantic.

1970 was another very quiet La Niña hurricane season.

9AF2E042-A25E-44AA-B078-F8182D526426.png

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And here’s how 2022 Atlantic ACE is tracking so far.

Only at 30, and unless Fiona gets her act together, will likely fall in the bottom 10% of seasons by the end of the month. 🤯 

DBB415F1-E8DB-416A-BA16-76F4D4F53A21.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

How could anyone give that a weenie? Squirrels are cute! (Not quite as cute as spiders, but still cute.)

Thank you lol. Was like d**n tough audience here.

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54 minutes ago, Phil said:

1967/68 is an analog to watch IMO.

This tweet is as of 8/31. Obviously there have been hurricanes since, but the point stands.

 

1967 has been a pretty good sensible weather analog for us since April or so overall. Similar stretch of impressive early spring troughing and then a nasty mid to late summer.

Got pretty windy here in early October that year...

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Sunday could have some potential to spread some deformation zone action up towards NW OR and SW WA, since they're notoriously hard to predict and often tend to have a little mor latitudinal spread than modeled. Might be our last real chance for measurable precip this month.

Edited by BLI snowman
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57 minutes ago, Phil said:

1967/68 is an analog to watch IMO.

This tweet is as of 8/31. Obviously there have been hurricanes since, but the point stands.

 

Not a terrible winter:

8.5" at Downtown Seattle

10.3" at Salem

10.9" at PDX

11.6" at SeaTac

11.6" at Bethany COOP

 

 

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1967 has been a pretty good sensible weather analog for us since April or so overall. Similar stretch of impressive early spring troughing and then a nasty mid to late summer.

Got pretty windy here in early October that year...

Really warm February in 1968 I think. And then Salem and Bethany COOP recorded a temp of 23 in April!

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

On top of that all, seeing a wild albino creature is definitely unusual and worth sharing.

I’ve only seen a couple of them in my life, definitely special.

First time was in the mountains of NC when I was 11 or 12 years old. Apparently there is some kind of local population there (they had signs that said “albino squirrel crossing”, lol). I thought it was some kind of inside joke at first but apparently not.

Several years ago I saw one in a neighbors yard while driving by, but didn’t have time to take a picture. So this was the first time I’ve been able to take a picture of one.

Just for the record, the picture I posted is from a friend’s camera. I took pictures with my iPhone but they aren’t nearly as good.

This is my crappy picture. :lol: 

8794593D-10FE-41F8-A7C8-014E3428DFBF.jpeg

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1967 has been a pretty good sensible weather analog for us since April or so overall. Similar stretch of impressive early spring troughing and then a nasty mid to late summer.

Got pretty windy here in early October that year...

May and the first half of June in 1967 was the complete opposite of 2022 in my area.

From May 1st - June 15th it rained on just 8 days here in 1967 and 42 days in that same 45-day period in 2022.    

It literally could not be more different.   I can't even imagine having 37 dry days in that period.    We had 3 dry days this year. 😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like 67-68 was pretty avg here for a winter. Had like 3" of snow but that was it compared to other areas just a bit to the north.

With today's climate it would probly be a dud here but we've had plenty of snow this last decade.

Just waiting on an Arctic airmass. We still haven't had one since before I joined this forum.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May and the first half of June in 1967 was the complete opposite of 2022 in my area.

From May 1st - June 15th it rained on just 8 days here in 1967 and 42 days in that same 45-day period in 2022.    

It literally could not be more different.   I can't even imagine having 37 dry days in that period.    We had 3 dry days this year. 😀

Being a good overall analog doesn't mean the weather is going to match up perfectly week for week.

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Heat misers are gonna love this.

Steroidal +TNH/+PNA and +NAO. Some things never change.

C9DBE7AB-6B5A-4ADC-BA95-B212FDDAB5C3.png

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21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Being a good overall analog doesn't mean the weather is going to match up perfectly week for week.

Thank you. Low pass/seasonal scale analog methodologies shouldn’t be used for high resolution/subseasonal scale purposes, except in special/dynamical circumstances.

It simply does not work like that. The best analogs on a given subseasonal interval are often *not* the same analogs that fit best on seasonal timescales.

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