PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Doinko]

Looks like the analogs that the Oregon Department of Forestry are using for Oct-Dec are 1956, 1971 and 2008. January 1957 was very cold, January 1972 was snowy in WA and then December 2008. 

 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time I felt this negatively about an upcoming winter was 2019-20. 

Wasn’t that a notably cool/wet Sep/Oct? Interestingly that was the oddball summer with the very muted 4CH/narrow HC, inverse of this year.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time I felt this negatively about an upcoming winter was 2019-20. 

January 2020 was pretty nice! 

[ShawniganLake]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The signs are there...

Yea.  I haven’t wanted to say anything but I’m not feeling this one.  Strong dud potential. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wasn’t that a notably cool/wet Sep/Oct? Interestingly that was the oddball summer with the very muted 4CH/narrow HC, inverse of this year.

It was a very dry fall. And a cold fall during +ENSO is not a great look. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

January 2020 was pretty nice! 

Overall Dec/January were HORRIFIC south of Seattle that winter. February and March were pleasant

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was a very dry fall. And a cold fall during +ENSO is not a great look. 

September was really wet here but then October and November were very dry. Though a lot of that rain in September was due to thunderstorms, we had 2"+ in an hour on the 9th of September 2019.

[TacomaWx]

Why’s everyone not feeling this winter? I get that there’s some years that a very dry start to fall wasn’t good and we’ve been on a significant roll of good winters too. I’m not sensing greatness but I don’t foresee a sh*tshow winter either. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

January 2020 was pretty nice! 

Just was gonna say that was the time it snowed while the Fraser outflow was raging and the temp was in the mid-teens in Bellingham. First time I got to walk on newly-fallen snow that squeaked in a very long time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

September was really wet here but then October and November were very dry. Though a lot of that rain in September was due to thunderstorms, we had 2"+ in an hour on the 9th of September 2019.

SLE had only 0.80" of rain that November. Only ones drier were 1929 and 1936. Obviously much different outcome both those years. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just was gonna say that was the time it snowed while the Fraser outflow was raging and the temp was in the mid-teens in Bellingham. First time I got to walk on newly-fallen snow that squeaked in a very long time.

I wish this had happened though!

 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE had only 0.80" of rain that November. Only ones drier were 1929 and 1936. Obviously much different outcome both those years. 

January 1930 looks amazing. Avg temp of 25.6 and 28" of snow at Longview (and a low of -20!!), 25.3 avg temp and 24" of snowat Hillsboro (Low of -14) and 27.4 avg temp and 18.7" of snow at Salem (Low of -5). 

[Deweydog]

January.

[TacomaWx]

74 here and sunny. Smoke is still not much of a factor currently. Despite the warmer than normal conditions likely to finish the month it looks like +80 highs and +60 lows are done here. 

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

January.

February 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, JBolin said:

February 

I’m hoping we can make it 8 years in a row with measurable snowfall here in 2023! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

 

This far north, that is a pretty strong signal for a normal to slightly warmer than normal winter. Sorta all over the map for Oregon, though. Really can’t rule out an arctic blast based on that alone, though. Have seen blasts happen in many winters that averaged out to that temperature range.

Given how epically cold it got between Christmas and New Years last year up this way, haven’t been expecting a repeat this winter, anyhow. It’s a far bigger disappointment for those well to my south that didn’t share in the epic cold last winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, JBolin said:

February 

CFS confirms!

[GobBluth]

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m hoping we can make it 8 years in a row with measurable snowfall here in 2023! 

You had measurable snow in Feb 2020? 

[bainbridgekid]

Euro spits out 90 for PDX next Monday. Would be a week before their latest ever on October 5th, 1980.

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, JBolin said:

February 

Mine’s longer.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 80 here and 81 in North Bend.

Slightly more hazy now and there is a little smell of smoke too.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS confirms!

And the south Willamette Valley gets screwed, so they will still be able to whine about dud winters.

[T-Town]

Pretty hazy here. 

[TacomaWx]

18 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

You had measurable snow in Feb 2020? 

Yes 1/2” on 2/3

[Meatyorologist]

Kind of silly to be worried about the big details of a winter still months away, when all it takes is one week out of the whole season to make it or break it. One abberative week.

The rains will return as they always do.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

Looks like the analogs that the Oregon Department of Forestry are using for Oct-Dec are 1956, 1971 and 2008. January 1957 was very cold, January 1972 was snowy in WA and then December 2008. 

 

if it's going to be that kind of party, then i'm going to put my d**k in the mashed potatoes

 

time to tune up the Blower! 

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 80 here and 81 in North Bend.

Slightly more hazy now and there is a little smell of smoke too.   

Such a nice day, really kicking myself for not taking the day off and playing at the lake. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The rains will return as they always do.

I do not want a repeat of 2012. Rains started so late that mushroom season was basically a total bust.

[MossMan]

This ad made me think of both Tim and Andrew! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

This ad made me think of both Tim and Andrew! 

Lawd. It's Tri-Cities all the time now. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time I felt this negatively about an upcoming winter was 2019-20. 

I felt better going into that one. Probably 2015-16 for me.

[Phishy Wx]

I usually don't have 'pre winter' feelings. I like to be surprised regardless of the outcome.  Having said that, hoping for fun and games and a little sub zeroness this winter

[Phil]

Dallas is a fukkin awful place to live.

Same crap for 5+ months.

[Phishy Wx]

question:

Would you sacrifice an average to above average snowfall for winter (as it relates to your location) for a record breaking, sustained cold wave (10 degrees or more below normal for at least a week)?

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

question:

Would you sacrifice an average to above average snowfall for winter (as it relates to your location) for a record breaking, sustained cold wave (10 degrees or more below normal for at least a week)?

Hell no.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

question:

Would you sacrifice an average to above average snowfall for winter (as it relates to your location) for a record breaking, sustained cold wave (10 degrees or more below normal for at least a week)?

Last winter was probably just at or slightly above the average snowfall for my location, but it was all wet snow and my biggest event was in April! I would definitely take a record breaking sustained cold wave. If it was drier snow that stuck around for a while maybe it'd be closer though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

17 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

question:

Would you sacrifice an average to above average snowfall for winter (as it relates to your location) for a record breaking, sustained cold wave (10 degrees or more below normal for at least a week)?

Given last winter was good and cold but only modestly above normal when it comes to snowfall, I would rather opt for snowier and less cold.

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dallas is a fukkin awful place to live.

Same crap for 5+ months.

I have several co-workers who used the pandemic as an excuse to move from Seattle and the Bay Area to Dallas and Austin and they rave about it and constantly tell me how much they love it there.