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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

00z GFS ensemble is not bad. We are not in a crazy warm pattern right now, just continuing to see warm temps regardless of 850mb temps it seems. 

As far as the long range pattern is concerned, there might be a brief zonal period as +dAAMt yields to +NPO/E-IO convection, but that looks short lived?

Could change, but for now it seems the background state is one of a weaker and poleward shifted NPAC jet.

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There's this thing we used to get called 'stratoform rain' which would really help on a day like today.

Getting really antsy for the return of the fall rains now.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Phil said:

850mb temps have been way above average out there this month.

As far as the long range pattern is concerned, there might be a brief zonal period as +dAAMt yields to +NPO/E-IO convection, but that looks short lived.

Could change, but for now it seems the background state is one of a weaker and poleward shifted NPAC jet.

For our region of the world that is a +ENSO response. Very odd.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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No offense Phil, but we were going to be entering a Nina background state by the end of July too... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

For our region of the world that is a +ENSO response. Very odd.

Is that really the case, though? +ENSO can produce a very strong early season NPAC jet. That was certainly true in 2015.

I think a lot goes into this, beyond ENSO. That said, this La Niña has been around awhile, and a lot of heat has been displaced into the extratropics relative to the tropics. Hadley Cells are bloated, summer circulations are slow to attenuate. Definitely not the same as when the La Niña first began in 2020.

How did the 2000/01 season evolve?

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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No offense Phil, but we were going to be entering a Nina background state by the end of July too... 

We have been in a La Niña background state all summer. What are you talking about?

We are already in moderate La Niña conditions and could very well end up in strong territory by November.

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Overall it’s looking bone dry and much warmer average through the foreseeable future. Can has been continually kicked down the road with regard to any meaningful pattern change and there’s no reason to think that will change anytime soon.

Wouldn’t surprise me to see things stay mostly dry until mid October, then it will probably get wet at times but still stay on the mild side.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Not sure about other stations but PDX is pretty much a lock for warmest September on record, by a large margin. Right now they are over three degrees above the previous record with no meaningfully cool weather in sight really.

Would be nice if they could at least avoid a 70+ average temp for September, if not simply to differentiate this month from a midsummer month just a little.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Drizzle. WOW

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not sure about other stations but PDX is pretty much a lock for warmest September on record, by a large margin. Right now they are over three degrees above the previous record with no meaningfully cool weather in sight really.

Would be nice if they could at least avoid a 70+ average temp for September, if not simply to differentiate this month from a midsummer month just a little.

Salem is going to smash their record for September too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

We have been in a La Niña background state all summer. What are you talking about?

We are already in moderate La Niña conditions and could very well end up in strong territory by November.

Hmmmm... I think the others know. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

We have been in a La Niña background state all summer. What are you talking about?

We are already in moderate La Niña conditions and could very well end up in strong territory by November.

In the Ag Weather update earlier this week they discussed the Nina bottoming out in November and then heading upwards during winter and into spring.

 

nino 922-1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmmm... I think the others know. 

We are and have been in a La Niña background state. If you’re arguing otherwise then you’re living on another planet.

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In the Ag Weather update earlier this week they discussed the Nina bottoming out in November and then heading upwards during winter and into spring.

 

nino 922-1.png

I don’t think that’s a given just yet. Will depend on wind forcing over the Indo-Pacific (IE: any WWBs and resulting downwelling OKWs).

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

We are and have been in a La Niña background state. If you’re arguing otherwise then you’re living on another planet.

I think the point is that the weather in the PNW has been pretty much the complete opposite of what is expected with a Nina state since the middle of June.     We expected 1999 and ended up with 2015.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

I’ve experienced that and it’s really cool. Both nocturnal inversions/mixing and CAD erosion during storms. Plenty of terrain to induce local weirdness along/west of the fall line here.

Craziest variations happen in the latter scenario, when there is in-situ low level CAD getting scoured out by a strong southerly LLJ. Usually at night during the dead of winter.

During the transition it can be in the 50s and windy on the hilltops upriver, but in the 30s with thick fog a half mile away at lower elevations. When the inversion mixes out you feel the puffs of warm wind contrasting with the in-situ airmass and it feels weird as heck.

The sundowners in Santa Barbara are the craziest temp swing I have ever experienced. Years ago we left to go mt biking (night ride) from downtown and it was in the low 70's with fog all the way up to 3k'

Then the sundowner kicked in and it immediately went to the low 90's all the way back into town. It was something like 96F at 9pm. By morning the fog was back and it was upper 60's. Everyone that lived there was used to it and didn't think it was as odd as I did. 

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/13/3/1520-0434_1998_013_0702_tswosb_2_0_co_2.xml#:~:text=In the most extreme Sundowner,C (100°F).

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Really distinct smoke gradient this morning between the Sound and the eastside.  

Horrible in Seattle... but just across Lake Washington in Issaquah there is very little smoke. 

 

sp 9-22.png

iss 9-21.png

090vc01581.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

We are and have been in a La Niña background state. If you’re arguing otherwise then you’re living on another planet.

You pretty vehemently prognosticated plentiful summer troughing in the PNW. 

 

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think the point is that the weather in the PNW has been pretty much the complete opposite of what is expected with a Nina state since the middle of June.     We expected 1999 and ended up with 2015.

Speak for yourself. No one with a realistic grip on our present climate expected 1999.  

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You pretty vehemently prognosticated plentiful summer troughing in the PNW. 

 

Speak for yourself. No one with a realistic grip on our present climate expected 1999.  

To clarify... Phil was saying 1999 and I figured he might be right with a serious payback summer.   Didn't even come close to happening of course.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

To clarify... Phil was saying 1999 and I figured he might be right with a serious payback summer.   Didn't even come close to happening of course.  

At least you are willing to acknowledge it. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least you are willing to acknowledge it. 

The difference between my expectation for this summer and the reality of this summer (and now into fall) could not be greater.    I am still blown away by how far off it was from my expectation.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

By far the most amazing microclimate I've ever encountered was the spine of SanFran... My god.

Summing Mt. Davis from the west was wild. 52F and drizzling, socked in clouds, everything damp. A short walk up the hill, and the sun begins to poke through, and by the very summit you *just* break through the inversion. Instantaneous, and I mean instantaneous, temp hike to 95F. Immediately start sweating buckets as the heat forces me to face the exercise I've just done. This was in the late morning, around 10am.

we use to get similar in Lompico, CA (Santa Cruz Mtns). we lived at the top of a ridge at about 1000' above most of the redwood/fog belt in the bottom of the canyon near the creek/river it would be 52 and foggy and at our place in the low 90s.  Under a 1000' distance the way the crow flies, yet a 3.5 mile drive that took 10min on winding roads.  Our yard was steeply sloped and the bottom of the property was in the Redwood belt, top of the property was chaparral.  I've seen 15-20 degree gradients in a little over 100 yards.

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11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice improvement on the GFS tonight.  Looks like it's giving a little bit back of what it took away on today's earlier runs.

You really need to stop jinxing things and wait until it gets within 5-7 days or it might never rain here.    ;)

Here is what happened between the 00Z run and the new 12Z run.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4647200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4647200 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Is that really the case, though? +ENSO can produce a very strong early season NPAC jet. That was certainly true in 2015.

I think a lot goes into this, beyond ENSO. That said, this La Niña has been around awhile, and a lot of heat has been displaced into the extratropics relative to the tropics. Hadley Cells are bloated, summer circulations are slow to attenuate. Definitely not the same as when the La Niña first began in 2020.

How did the 2000/01 season evolve?

September and October were pretty seasonable in 2000 for SW BC.  November was dry.  Brushed with some arctic air in mid December 

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41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You pretty vehemently prognosticated plentiful summer troughing in the PNW. 

Not the same thing. Niña background state is in reference to the large scale circulation in the tropics.

And FWIW I did predict a warm/dry pattern for the late summer period. Really the only period I was actually “wrong” about was ~ 7/10 to 8/10.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just going to mention that it looks terrible on the Space Needle cam this morning with low level smoke.   Its crystal clear from 405 eastward... not even a hint of smoke out here.    Hopefully that means it will mix out in Seattle as well.

Guess the HRRR was correct once again!😉 Seattle has some of the worst air quality in the world currently.

Screen Shot 2022-09-21 at 11.00.26 AM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Guess the HRRR was correct once again! Seattle has some of the worst air quality in the world currently.

Screen Shot 2022-09-21 at 11.00.26 AM.png

Luckily its very isolated near the Sound... air quality is great out here.  

 

aqi2.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim is gonna love the 12z GFS.

I don't want the endless rain to start yet... but would love a regionwide soaking.    And the 12Z GFS shows basically no rain for the next 16 days.   

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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CFS going for a warm Oct/November, average Dec/Jan and cool February. That seems like a best case scenario. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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CFS also showing a wet Dec/January, and March, but otherwise dry. It looks like we are headed towards a dry potentially record warm October. 

  • Rain 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

CFS also showing a wet Dec/January, and March, but otherwise dry. It looks like we are headed towards a dry potentially record warm October. 

Ninoish like for a bit

Eastside Tacoma/Salishan, WA. Elv 263ft

Family home in Spanaway, WA. Elv 413ft

☥𓂀✡️

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