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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Maybe we can add a record warm October to our growing string of record warm months. 

I just mentioned this... I think it is definitely a better than 50% proposition. At this point we are going to see continued anomalous warmth until we see a major pattern shake up. Even patterns that at face value are not warm patterns are still producing consistent positive anomalies. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I have to mention there is now a major conifer die off underway in the Central Willamette Valley. Looks like something similar that happened in the Grants Pass-Eugene area in 2015. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Hopefully record dry too to add to our futility. It’s a wonderful combination. 

The lack of any coherent jet across the North Pacific is concerning, in addition to all the background warmth.

When it finally comes it will probably come hard and dump on us, but historically these anemic starts to fall just mean we're probably going to be punting a significant portion of our midwinter window on SW flow gunk. 

And conversely, the additional emerging present tendency for every front and 500mb trough to split and cutoff to the SW is also reminiscent of our worst years. GFS shows that continues until further notice. CA may very well have a wetter winter than us finally if that's the case. 

Just calling it as I see it but all signs are pretty pathetically bad right now. Everyone's expectations for fall and winter should be down below the basement right now. 

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6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The lack of any coherent jet across the North Pacific is concerning, in addition to all the background warmth.

When it finally comes it will probably come hard and dump on us, but historically these anemic starts to fall just mean we're probably going to be punting a significant portion of our midwinter window on SW flow gunk. 

And conversely, the additional emerging present tendency for every front and 500mb trough to split and cutoff to the SW is also reminiscent of our worst years. GFS shows that continues until further notice. CA may very well have a wetter winter than us finally if that's the case. 

Just calling it as I see it but all signs are pretty pathetically bad right now. Everyone's expectations for fall and winter should be down below the basement right now. 

2000-01 redux.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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lol

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The lack of any coherent jet across the North Pacific is concerning, in addition to all the background warmth.

When it finally comes it will probably come hard and dump on us, but historically these anemic starts to fall just mean we're probably going to be punting a significant portion of our midwinter window on SW flow gunk. 

And conversely, the additional emerging present tendency for every front and 500mb trough to split and cutoff to the SW is also reminiscent of our worst years. GFS shows that continues until further notice. CA may very well have a wetter winter than us finally if that's the case. 

Just calling it as I see it but all signs are pretty pathetically bad right now. Everyone's expectations for fall and winter should be down below the basement right now. 

I think there are a lot of different scenarios with how this mid Fall/Winter could play out still. Writing was on the wall for an incoherent pacific jet and dry through early October for a while though with all the energy in the GOA.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2000-01 redux.

That one featured a surprising amount of consistent snow and cold out this way. Nothing extreme but plenty of NW flow with the majority of the energy dropping into the Midwest.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I think there are a lot of different scenarios with how this mid Fall/Winter could play out still. Writing was on the wall for an incoherent pacific jet and dry through early October for a while though with all the energy in the GOA.

Technically true but the persistence has been pretty unreal lately. And the present reality is that significant warmth will always be heavily favored anyways, in most scenarios.

I am feeling a cold November (maybe late October) blocking episode. Will probably be too eastern focused and too early for it to amount to much but it will be a nice, almost surreal respite from the torching before we resume it in earnest likely in December and then of course doubly so in that following month. 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Technically true but the persistence has been pretty unreal lately. And the present reality is that significant warmth will always be heavily favored anyways, in most scenarios.

I am feeling a cold November (maybe late October) blocking episode. Will probably be too eastern focused and too early for it to amount to much but it will be a nice, almost surreal respite from the torching before we resume it in earnest likely in December and then of course doubly so in that following month. 

Yeah I think a Midwest icebox this winter and a dry'ish winter for the PNW is probably an easy call at this point. That still doesn't mean a completely torchy winter if the blocking high can shift westward at times though (ie 1989).

I don't know, call me an optimist I guess!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The lack of any coherent jet across the North Pacific is concerning, in addition to all the background warmth.

When it finally comes it will probably come hard and dump on us, but historically these anemic starts to fall just mean we're probably going to be punting a significant portion of our midwinter window on SW flow gunk. 

And conversely, the additional emerging present tendency for every front and 500mb trough to split and cutoff to the SW is also reminiscent of our worst years. GFS shows that continues until further notice. CA may very well have a wetter winter than us finally if that's the case. 

Just calling it as I see it but all signs are pretty pathetically bad right now. Everyone's expectations for fall and winter should be down below the basement right now. 

If we're stuck in SW flow maybe we can at least see a windstorm!

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah I think a Midwest icebox this winter and a dry'ish winter for the PNW is probably an easy call at this point. That still doesn't mean a completely torchy winter if the blocking high can shift westward at times though (ie 1989).

I don't know, call me an optimist I guess!

I think it's too early to write off this winter at this point

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah I think a Midwest icebox this winter and a dry'ish winter for the PNW is probably an easy call at this point. That still doesn't mean a completely torchy winter if the blocking high can shift westward at times though (ie 1989).

I don't know, call me an optimist I guess!

Yeah I'm sure there will be a couple of windows for us to scrape by with something transient but I think a spread-the-wealth scenario for the region is pretty unlikely. Feeling like our best bet for a retrograde or something is gonna be with November and February (of course). I do think the majority of midwinter will either be split-centric or SW flow gunk, or maybe some combination of the two. 

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Smoke is really bad here at work in Mountlake Terrace. Smells like a campfire burning upwind. Considering indoor recess for the kids but so far we’ve let them out.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think it's too early to write off this winter at this point

I don't think anyone is necessarily writing this winter completely off but more saying that people might want to keep their expectations in check which I think is founded IMO. Especially considering that this Spring there was a lot of talk that a 1949-50 or 2008 type winter was imminent.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I don't think anyone is necessarily writing this winter completely off but more saying that people might want to keep their expectations in check which I think is founded IMO. Especially considering that this Spring there was a lot of talk that a 1949-50 or 2008 type winter was imminent.

I’m going with a November 1985! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have to mention there is now a major conifer die off underway in the Central Willamette Valley. Looks like something similar that happened in the Grants Pass-Eugene area in 2015. 

I didn’t notice anything out of the ordinary last time we drove the 5 south to Roseburg. But that was in late June. The relentlessly hot July/August this year, following last year’s acute heat damage probably hasn’t been easy on them. I was hoping the wet spring this year helped but there’s only so many hits our native vegetation can take, even with token cool and wet periods thrown in every couple years.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Really distinct smoke gradient this morning between the Sound and the eastside.  

Horrible in Seattle... but just across Lake Washington in Issaquah there is very little smoke. 

 

sp 9-22.png

iss 9-21.png

090vc01581.jpg

Yea it’s interesting. Definitely a very sharp distinction between areas with and without smoke. 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Really distinct smoke gradient this morning between the Sound and the eastside.  

Horrible in Seattle... but just across Lake Washington in Issaquah there is very little smoke. 

 

sp 9-22.png

iss 9-21.png

090vc01581.jpg

The way the smoke is hung up reminds me of a lot of arctic fronts and CZ’s we see.

 

FA2926ED-AD84-433B-BB34-B1E93F0B97B5.jpeg

  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Jim’s jinxing it on purpose for the cool mins and dry days. He’s liking the Waterville plateau lite weather. 

FWIW... the ECMWF is trending more splitty with that trough later next week.   But its still good enough for significant rain on this run.    If anyone jinxes it further then it will probably go back to ridging in that period.  

00Z run on top and new 12Z run on the bottom.    

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4582400 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4582400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

It is kinda weird how the smoke is very low level…the skies look very blue still…but down at the surface it’s murky. Thankfully it’ll get kicked out soon. Hopefully the euros right and we can get a nice system to roll through and end the smoke for the remainder of the year. 69 degrees currently. 

You can see on the satellite that NW flow is taking hold now across the Seattle area.   Smoke is dispersing somewhat and pushing to the south and east in the process.    I think it will get better in Seattle this afternoon.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You can see on the satellite that NW flow is taking hold now across the Seattle area.   Smoke is dispersing somewhat and pushing to the south and east in the process.    I think it will get better in Seattle this afternoon.

Yeah…makes sense why it’s gotten worse over the last couple hours here. 

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