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14 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Hurricane season started late it's coming in with a bang. The 12z EURO has Fiona getting down to 920 mb prior to landfall now in Nova Scotia. This is going to be a once in a lifetime storm for them.

 

It will be their Columbus Day type storm! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Since we’re all on the subject, I just found out I have a second child on the way. About 9 weeks along or so. I have a beautiful 8 year old girl now and hope she loves this one. 
 

In other news, I received .05 of precip overnight. Looks to be it for awhile unless that storm in one week comes through for us. 

Congrats!! Two is a good number I feel like, I don’t know how parents are able to stay sane with more than two kids! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Since we’re all on the subject, I just found out I have a second child on the way. About 9 weeks along or so. I have a beautiful 8 year old girl now and hope she loves this one. 
 

In other news, I received .05 of precip overnight. Looks to be it for awhile unless that storm in one week comes through for us. 

Big congrats !!

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13 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Since we’re all on the subject, I just found out I have a second child on the way. About 9 weeks along or so. I have a beautiful 8 year old girl now and hope she loves this one. 
 

In other news, I received .05 of precip overnight. Looks to be it for awhile unless that storm in one week comes through for us. 

There is a 5 year gap between the second youngest and youngest and she absolutely adores her little brother. I get it turns out great. Congrats. My brother has his 2nd on the way too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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31 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Weather.com is forecasting 91 here on Monday.

Record high that day at PDX is 92. We might as well go for it. 

An average day is 73/52 by Monday. We have had 0 lows below 54 this month and only 2 highs below 73. 

Even more incredible is that 56 out of the last 60 days have had a positive temperature departure. 

More incredible yet is that we will likely go 100+ days with less than .25'' of precipitation.

The good news is that it can't get much worse.

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2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Record high that day at PDX is 92. We might as well go for it. 

An average day is 73/52 by Monday. We have had 0 lows below 54 this month and only 2 highs below 73. 

Even more incredible is that 56 out of the last 60 days have had a positive temperature departure. 

More incredible yet is that we will likely go 100+ days with less than .25'' of precipitation.

The good news is that it can't get much worse.

And here's the 18z GFS vs the 12z in case anybody actually thought it might rain anytime soon...

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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CPC is going for a cold NW winter, but with a sharp N to S gradient.  Surprisingly they have normal precip for WA and not above.  That look is more suggestive of a -PNA and opposed to -EPO winter.

/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_temp.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

CPC is going for a cold NW winter, but with a sharp N to S gradient.  Surprisingly they have normal precip for WA and not above.  That look is more suggestive of a -PNA and opposed to -EPO winter.

/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_temp.gif

I'm hoping for some cold to make it south down to the Willamette Valley. Last winter's February event was pretty good for low temps in most of the Valley but the wind didn't let up here so we didn't get really cold lows. We did have one subfreezing high in December though

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The support on this forum is incredible.  It's been a struggle to learn how to support her through this so lastnight I stayed awake almost the entire night while she slept in my arms and I just held her and said nothing.  There's no words that can explain what she's going through so I didn't say much.

Just can't imagine.

I'm not sure if you saw or not, but I had a close friend commit suicide earlier in the summer.  That is hard enough to deal with, but tragically losing a child has to be unbearable.

  • Sad 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Just can't imagine.

I'm not sure if you saw or not, but I had a close friend commit suicide earlier in the summer.  That is hard enough to deal with, but tragically losing a child has to be unbearable.

I'm sorry friend.  I also had a buddy that worked for me a few years ago take his life 2 Month's ago. The young man was just 32.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I'm hoping for some cold to make it south down to the Willamette Valley. Last winter's February event was pretty good for low temps in most of the Valley but the wind didn't let up here so we didn't get really cold lows. We did have one subfreezing high in December though

I was really thinking this might be the winter for a region wide event, but I can see the reason they are going for a stronger N to S gradient now.  That having been said, I think this one will be full of surprises.  High potential for historic type events pretty much anywhere.  Of course historic could mean historically awful too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm sorry friend.  I also had a buddy that worked for me a few years ago take his life 2 Month's ago. The young man was just 32.

Good grief.  Seems like no end to stories like this lately.  Just a really awful period for some reason.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was really thinking this might be the winter for a region wide event, but I can see the reason they are going for a stronger N to S gradient now.  That having been said, I think this one will be full of surprises.  High potential for historic type events pretty much anywhere.  Of course historic could mean historically awful too.

I've never put much stock in those maps. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Picked up a puzzle at the Paulina Lake ranger station to remember our trip to Bend. Haven’t made much progress though. 

1FFE562F-EFF9-498D-B57C-F53EBD29C3E7.jpeg

Good luck. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Models are still frustratingly slow to change.  I'm going with a firm prediction when it finally changes it will be a reversal to a deep / cold trough as opposed to progressive and more zonal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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31 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I personally like the CFS maps better 

I'm not sure if you realize we were talking about the CPC winter forecast map.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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16 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Been super clear over here too until I just looked up to the west and did not like what I saw. Hopefully strong winds keep it up and going and doesn’t settle

image.jpg

We need rain.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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41 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

70/54 today no smoke either very nice. 

70/48 here.  We managed to stay clear for most of the night with pretty dry air still in place.  Really felt like September today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Models are still frustratingly slow to change.  I'm going with a firm prediction when it finally changes it will be a reversal to a deep / cold trough as opposed to progressive and more zonal.

In the Ag Weather update today... they said the exact opposite.    All signs point to a lack of blocking and zonal flow later in October into November.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XflIZo3AKe0

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

That cold front saved the Carolinas from a doozy of a storm 

It feels AMAZING here this evening. Stiff breeze, the sound of leaves blowing around. Love it!!

Also the first time it’s felt “cool” in over 4 months.

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In the Ag Weather update today... they said the exact opposite.    All signs point to a lack of blocking and zonal flow later in October into November.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XflIZo3AKe0

“All signs”? I’m not sure I agree with that.

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I'm a bit tired of testing what is thermodynamically possible for this time of year.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

Tuesday is looking unnervingly warm for this whole portion of the world, at this time of year.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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