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The last two control runs on the GFS ensemble have been pretty crazy.

1663977600-SGu27DmWKNsgrb2.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Nice improvement on the 0z EPS.  This is the change from the 12z.

1664949600-0CCzmgKrOM8.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Green Gables is gonna get wrecked.

3 Of Anne Shirley's Wisest Quotes That We'll Never Forget — wallflower

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Prince Edward Island is likely getting the worst of the storm now.  The confederation bridge is now gusting to 112mph.  Sounds like a ton of trees are coming down across the island 

Prince Edward Island has never seen anything like this before. Once in a century storm for this region. 

 

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Down to 46F. Glad I don't live on Prince Edward Island right now.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last two times we have gone have been in the fall and it is really nice after Labor Day IMO. Especially during the week, things can get pretty crowded in the summer sometimes. 

Same. We went in mid-October a few years ago and had sun and highs around 70. Great for all the outdoor activities in the area. 
 

I would like to figure out how to spend the month of September in Bend and work remotely from there. I know people do that kind of thing but I can’t pay the nightly rate on an Airbnb for 30 nights. 

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53 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The 06z gets fall started

CFA9F09D-9048-4B9E-A10D-AF0998055E95.png

At this point, enough runs of enough models are saying we should have a pattern change at about the same time as the month rolls over that I will be surprised if we don’t. (Plus, climo says we are due for one.)

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Those people on that island have got to be freaked out right now.  I hope they live to tell about it.

BTW...it technically isn't Fiona any longer.

Actually, it still is Fiona… Hurricane Fiona is what it technically no longer is. It is now post-tropical storm Fiona.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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56 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Actually, it still is Fiona… Hurricane Fiona is what it technically no longer is. It is now post-tropical storm Fiona.

I was wondering if that might be the case.  I knew for sure it wasn't considered a hurricane any longer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Big changes on the ensembles last night.  The 0z EPS, 0z GEFS, and 6z GEFS are all much more bullish for some action and -PNA for week 2.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Big changes on the ensembles last night.  The 0z EPS, 0z GEFS, and 6z GEFS are all much more bullish for some action and -PNA for week 2.

Apparently Jesse doesn't want the weather to change now.  Weird!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12Z GFS is about 25 degrees warmer for next Saturday than its 06Z run.    Some rain does move in Sunday though.  

But that is how the backing off has been happening in the models for the last few weeks... one day at a time once it gets within 7 days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEM and 12Z ICON completely cut off that trough coming in next weekend and put a ridge over the PNW.

I am not focusing so much on any individual run so much as collective model consensus, which really has been building for a pattern change around the same time as the month rolls over.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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The Bolt Creek fire is still putting out lots of smoke... the Hwy 2 traffic cams look really murky this morning.    Same in Skykomish.   

HRRR does not show much smoke at all this weekend but the satellite looks pretty bad.

 

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.truecolor.20220924.163117-over=map-bars=.gif

sky 9-24.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The Bolt Creek fire is still putting out lots of smoke... the Hwy 2 traffic cams look really murky this morning.    Same in Skykomish.   

HRRR does not show much smoke at all this weekend but the satellite looks pretty bad.

 

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.truecolor.20220924.163117-over=map-bars=.gif

sky 9-24.png

Yeah I suspect it’ll get nasty in the Puget sound similar to earlier this week. 

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11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I am not focusing so much on any individual run so much as collective model consensus, which really has been building for a pattern change around the same time as the month rolls over.

And we have an MJO wave emerging in a favorable region.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 52 this morning. Models look just fine for some rain in a few days. Isn’t a ton but our first real fall system. 

47 here.  I've had a pretty good run of mins over the last week.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I suspect it’ll get nasty in the Puget sound similar to earlier this week. 

But would be strange for the HRRR to completely miss it... 

trc1_NW_int_f009.png

trc1_NW_sfc_f009.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I suspect it’ll get nasty in the Puget sound similar to earlier this week. 

I think so.  A smoldering fire and flow about to go offshore again.  Yuck.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 52 this morning. Models look just fine for some rain in a few days. Isn’t a ton but our first real fall system. 

To me the system on Wednesday looks similar to several other systems in the last few weeks that were washing out as it moves ashore.      Maybe a little drizzle and few showers in the mountains... as we have seen several times since late August.   

The system next Sunday has a better chance to bring rain... but there is no model consensus at all yet.     Seems like meaningful rain is always 7-10 days out.   Has to change eventually but I need to see it to believe it at this point.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The latest GFS has the next hurricane threading the needle between Cuba and the Yucatan, but it's kind of in the dying stages when it hits the US.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

To me the system on Wednesday looks similar to several other systems in the last few weeks that were washing out as it moves ashore.      Maybe a little drizzle and few showers in the mountains... as we have seen several times since late August.   

The system next Sunday has a better chance to bring rain... but there is no model consensus at all yet.     Seems like meaningful rain is always 7-10 days out.   Has to change eventually but I need to see it to believe it at this point.  

I totally agree about the first system.  The second one probably has a pretty good chance of being meaningful unless it digs too much from the NW.  As we've recently seen we can have tanked PNA and still get little rain from it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But would be strange for the HRRR to completely miss it... 

trc1_NW_int_f009.png

trc1_NW_sfc_f009.png

That model isn't even seeing the bolt creek fire.  What it's showing is the smaller ones in Chelan County.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I totally agree about the first system.  The second one probably has a pretty good chance of being meaningful unless it digs too much from the NW.  As we've recently seen we can have tanked PNA and still get little rain from it.

Yeah, too much troughing is definitely what’s been keeping us from getting rainfall lately. Wow 😂

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Has anyone heard how the horses and 4 people on Sable Island fared last night?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That model isn't even seeing the bolt creek fire.  What it's showing is the smaller ones in Chelan County.

It picked up on the smoke in Seattle this past Wednesday very well... but shows nothing for this weekend.    Not sure what to think.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Has anyone heard how the horses and 4 people on Sable Island fared last night?

Given how many strong nor'easters they have weathered... I have to imagine they know how to handle storms.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah, too much troughing is definitely what’s been keeping us from getting rainfall lately. Wow 😂

The troughs we've had have dug too close to the coast to be good rain makers.  We just had a really decent trough last weekend totally diss us.  It did give rain to CA which needs it even more than we do.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The troughs we've had have dug too close to the coast to be good rain makers.  We just had a really decent trough last weekend totally diss us.  It did give rain to CA which needs it even more than we do.

The pattern has been overwhelmingly ridgy for our region with way above average heights since late June. The troughs that you keep flipping out about in the 11 day range aren’t actually happening. Just a PSA.

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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