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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looks like the same map for the past 3 1/2 months for the NW. So many long-term models have had us cooler and wetter than normal only for it to never materialize.
 

I’m not buying any rainfall until it is within day 5 and it is consistent amongst the models. 

Totally agree.   I need to see it within 5 days to believe there will be meaningful rainfall.  People have been talking about how great model runs look in the long range since August and almost none of it has happened.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

I only have the UAH one from Roy Spencer. If you want it, here you go:

https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

Thanks!  Better than what I have a link to, but still not the one I had in mind.  No sign of out of the ordinary SH warming in August.  The people saying the volcano will cause warming may be wrong.  The eruption put a lot of salt into the atmosphere as well as some sulfuric aerosols.  The combination may be enough to offset warming.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I guess the only good thing right now is at least the min temps have come back into line.  I've had mostly 40s for the last 8 to 10 days now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Summer pattern seems to have terminated out here. Earliest I can remember it happening. Maybe 2014 was similar but it was a slower transition than this.

Weird year.

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Nothing better than early mornings at the lake. Reminds me of when I was a kid and would head out in my small fishing boat at sunrise in search of the big one! Chilly morning in the 40’s but wow really cannot beat this weather. So glad we got a good little shot of rain the other morning, it really perked up the vegetation around my property. 

2E82D165-EFBA-4DEB-B094-505549705C73.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nothing better than early mornings at the lake. Reminds me of when I was a kid and would head out in my small fishing boat at sunrise in search of the big one! Chilly morning in the 40’s but wow really cannot beat this weather. So glad we got a good little shot of rain the other morning, it really perked up the vegetation around my property. 

2E82D165-EFBA-4DEB-B094-505549705C73.jpeg

Heading out on the water today... can't pass up an 80+ degree sunny weekend day in late September.   

And would love some rain too.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Summer pattern seems to have terminated out here. Earliest I can remember it happening. Maybe 2014 was similar but it was a slower transition than this.

Weird year.

Very.  I can't quite figure out what's going on.

BTW...do you have the link for global temps that is updated daily?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We have a solid signal for an MJO wave now.  That should get things moving a bit.  Hopefully in our favor.

ECMF_BC.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

53˚F overnight. Yesterday's max was 73. The sun is nice, but I really am ready for some rain, and so are the plants.

It is insanely dry here.  Even the weeds have totally stopped growing.  Dropped to 47 here last night.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I've had 0.39" in the last 97 days.  Seems almost impossible.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Gfs and cmc have been showing rain for the last couple days now. Looks like it’s 4-5 days out. 

I am sort of ignoring the mid week system.  It looks very splitty and likely won't be meaningful.    The Sunday-Tuesday period looks much more promising but it's still 7 days away. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sort of ignoring the mid week system.  It looks very splitty and likely won't be meaningful.    The Sunday-Tuesday period looks much more promising but it's still 7 days away. 

Probably a couple tenths of an inch and will probably put a real damper on the bolt creek fire which isn’t insignificant IMO. 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Probably a couple tenths of an inch and will probably put a real damper on the bolt creek fire which isn’t insignificant IMO. 

I think they had that on Friday morning too... when Randy had almost .10 

And yes... any rain in the Skykomish area is very good right now.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Had 0.00” in 90 days in 2017. Right now we’re at 0.61” over 97 days…very dry everywhere in western WA but just depends on your location some places probably have had just a few hundredths. 

I had forgotten 2017 was that dry.  I had more than you, but still drier than the same period this year.  That year turned quite wet in late September though.  It probably is the best match to this year.  Hot and very dry summer during a second year Nina.  That winter was -QBO though.  That winter was ok with a cold December, white Christmas, and some cold / snow in Feb.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think they had that on Friday morning too... when Randy had almost .10 

And yes... any rain in the Skykomish area is very good right now.

We are very lucky the fire situation is as tame as it is right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Took a nature walk this morning and noticed that the leaves on the native bigleaf maples are all turning brown and falling off before they had a chance to show any fall color. The Douglas fir trees look droopy and dull, but the ponderosa pine look even worse, with more brown needles than green ones. Kind of surprising since they're supposed to be more resilient than the firs.

Oh, and it's smoky again here this morning, too. Yuck.

Yeah pretty much all the maples around Silverton have turned brown and are dropping their leaves. The silver creek canyon is full of maples so usually we have great fall color. Not this year. The maples will be fine, even the ones they got torched up the Santiam Canyon in the beachie creek fire are already coming back. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We have a solid signal for an MJO wave now.  That should get things moving a bit.  Hopefully in our favor.

ECMF_BC.png

If it’s heading into the WPAC that would probably favor a +TNH/ridge response unless it happens before ~ 10/15.

In October phase 8/1 MJO is actually what best teleconnects to western troughing. That relationship changes up in December.  

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

If it’s heading into the WPAC that would probably favor a +TNH/ridge response unless it happens before ~ 10/15.

In October phase 8/1 MJO is actually what best teleconnects to western troughing. That relationship changes up in December.  

So we go from ridging to more ridging. Sounds legit. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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59 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s over. 

7F788719-8FAC-46FD-B248-2A2790DEF09C.jpeg

No sign of it yet according to global temp observations.  As I've mentioned before a lot of salt got ejected also which is a global cooling agent.  Just too soon to tell.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So we go from ridging to more ridging. Sounds legit. 

Th MJO will probably be progressive so it will probably be changeable.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That bolt creek fire is one smelly SOB.  Even today there is a smoke smell from it outside some 50 miles away.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So we go from ridging to more ridging. Sounds legit. 

Depends on the timing. Wavelengths changing rapidly now so teleconnections w/ tropics can be very state dependent.

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Very.  I can't quite figure out what's going on.

BTW...do you have the link for global temps that is updated daily?

Is it this one?

https://oz4caster.wordpress.com/cfsr/

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

That will work thanks!

The one I had in mind is different, but this is just as good.  How about that!  The southern Hem is actually -0.2 today and global is only +0.3.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends on the timing. Wavelengths changing rapidly now so teleconnections w/ tropics can be very state dependent.

I think this presents a huge challenge for the models.  I think it will be a short warning situation when the big change finally comes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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25 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z EPS is Tim-tastic. 🔥 🥵 

I was going to say....fair at best if you want some changes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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You know....that is actually a big deal the global average is only +0.3 with the N Hem still in the warm season.  The vast difference in land mass between the S and N makes it easier for larger global plus anoms during the boreal summer / warm season.

So far so good on Hunga Tonga.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I hadn't heard about the drop in global temps in April.  Pretty definite step down there.

d1-gfs-gta-daily-2022-09-24.gif

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I hadn't heard about the drop in global temps in April.  Pretty definite step down there.

d1-gfs-gta-daily-2022-09-24.gif

That’s because arctic amplification ceases during the spring/summer. In a month or two those anomalies will spike again.

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