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11 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:
00z GFS Wishcasting
Day 10-16 GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, Rainfall totals, Snowfall totals.
HERE WE GO! The first real deal big league trough of the Fall season way out in la-la land! Models have begun to show the infamous wishcasting/eye candy type stuff in the Day 10-16 time frame and that will only become more common throughout the Fall and Winter months. I often wonder why any model extends out that far as the degree of accuracy is nearly non-existent. BUT dang it isn't it fun to look at! YEAH it is. This isn't to be taken seriously it's more of a "What IF?" post, plus it's boring right now. I think you figured that out though. C'MON!!!!
 
 

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Welcome back!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

That’s because arctic amplification ceases during the spring/summer. In a month or two those anomalies will spike again.

Makes sense.  Unless the Arctic is cold this winter.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

All in all I like the amount of blue on the globe right now.  It isn't exactly "on fire" like some are saying.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Very warm day. Pulled the animals off the lower pasture for about 9 months and the scotch broom exploded... ugh 

5B3E5B30-860B-4C1B-85BE-9114E9319B38.jpeg

0F61BB47-9AD3-4BFD-B97A-BE75CF700504.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

The G and H storms must have been duds.  Never heard anything about those.  I've been watching the models on this one for a while.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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69F degrees with blue sky and thick, heavy smoke towards the east and Cascade's.  Hate seeing the smoke keep coming back here.

We need rain so bad.  The forecasts keep teasing us by saying there will be rain at the end of next week, then when it doesn't come, they do the same tease over and over.  We've had ONE measurable rainfall day at my house since July. Everything is green, but the ground is SO dry. 

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1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Extrap pressure already down to near 990mb this evening. My Dad lives in Sarasota and this’ll be a pretty close call for them.

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dehydration.

6518F572-017E-40CA-B40F-28737233D643.png

We are going to flip the script big time this winter. As in very cold in W Canada and wet zonal flow SLAMMIN' the west coast. MBG. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are going to flip the script big time this winter. As in very cold in W Canada and wet zonal flow SLAMMIN' the west coast. MBG. 

I don’t think so. Though anything is possible.

Most of the indicators for a strong cold season NPAC jet are quite anemic/inverted in tendency. Hard to say if/when that will change.

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Nice arctic blast in lala land. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think so.

Hmmmm. I'm dreaming of a January 1953 redux. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Highs barely crack 50 in the Willamette Valley at the end of the run. 25 degrees cooler than the 12z. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What do you think?

My suspicion is either we go with a poleward+zonal outcome like 1999/00 or a blocked up GOA/AK (which could be a cold/dry outcome).

The low frequency circulation does not resemble wet/stormy winters on the West Coast, but there’s a first time for everything so who knows.

Not exactly a typical year…3rd year niña and a massive load of stratospheric H2O will make for an interesting case study.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

My suspicion is either we go with a poleward+zonal outcome like 1999/00 or a blocked up GOA/AK (which could be a cold/dry outcome).

The low frequency circulation does not resemble wet/stormy winters on the West Coast, but there’s a first time for everything so who knows.

Not exactly a typical year…3rd year niña and a massive load of stratospheric H2O will make for an interesting case study.

I've seen 1956/57 come up as an analog a few times, what do you think about that as one?

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What hemlock looper moths plus the accumulated stress of summer after summer of heat and drought will do. This is what Stanley Park now looks like. Everything is fine, anyone saying the world is burning is engaged in baseless accusations.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I've seen 1956/57 come up as an analog a few times, what do you think about that as one?

I don’t think that’s a great analog. Much narrower z-cell background in addition to -QBO/solar min.

There are more viable (and more recent) analogs for seasonal scale stuff, IMO. But again, anything is possible. I don’t have the answers. 🤷 

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The GEFS keeps trending more splitty in the long range, which has been the theme for the last several months.

In general the northern jet has been both weaker and farther to the north overall.

400AC8FE-A4A9-4AD6-945B-96B1B7DBCD9C.gif

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Having Phil OUT on this winter is the first positive sign we have had in weeks. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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So pleasant this evening. Praying for rain, but enjoying the moment. 

C420151C-5FC2-4306-ADB4-6B367240FA52.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

80 at SEA today.

Decent chance they get three straight 80 degree days. Can’t imagine that’s happened often this late in the year before but I’m not sure how to efficiently look up that stat.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Having Phil OUT on this winter is the first positive sign we have had in weeks. 

Never said I was out on the winter. Just that I don’t think there’ll be a very strong jet or wet regime in general.

Which if anything could increase the odds for continental cold and lowland snowfall. Not sure how that qualifies as me being “out” on winter.

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