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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:
The seasonal increase of arctic sea ice extent has begun. Did I say that right. This Winter we might make a run for that 1981-2010 average criteria.
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

Way better than 2012.  Weren't they saying we would have ice free summers in the Arctic by now after that happened?  Shows what they know.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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22 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

As of today we’re running +2.8. Still just 0.04” so far this month. Probably will get 0.10-0.20” before the months over but it’ll still be one of the driest Septembers I’ve ever recorded. 

Yeah...at least the Wednesday rain is looking pretty solid now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

75/50 on the day. 

79/47 here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah they have been fear mongering that nonsense for years.

I wonder when the global warming fanatics will notice the predictions of doom keep getting put off.  There is nothing we are seeing that hasn't happened before.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We reached about 80 in the afternoon. Next two days are looking a bit too warm.

  • Sun 1

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah the ensembles have also been a let down. After Day 6-7 they had routinely showed a sharp cooling trend persisting into the second week of October with temps remaining around or slightly below average with precip chances too, but 36-48 hours later back away from any pattern change. Annoying. It's not October yet, so this isn't too alarming.

 

6z GFS in 5 hours 8 minutes

We will be fine man. You ready to have a fuckkin' party from now til March on here?

  • Popcorn 1
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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF takes Hurricane Ian just west of Florida skirting by Tampa Bay. It's not nearly as strong on this run. Models are not yet consistent with track nor intensity.

floop-ecmwf_full-2022092600.sfcwind_mslp.gom.gif

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall stay offshore. But way too close for comfort right now for Tampa Bay.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092600_78_507_380.thumb.png.47cd0b9cf1b372c96ed2016a26301070.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092600_84_507_380.thumb.png.1dd46335cc72042d1e08048bbec5d674.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092600_105_507_220.thumb.png.e55fe8fc3ab12b1e89ea2e061755fd9d.png

 

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Pretty discouraging EPS tonight.  I had hoped the MJO wave might shake things up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Does anyone else think the track of this hurricane is pretty bizarre?  Never seen one come up from so far south and hit the US that I can remember.  Just add it to the list of messed up sheit this year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours from the last recon, new one just went through what is shaping up to be a well-defined eye. Clear and sharp pressure drop with winds dropping to 10kts and a drop to zero precip in the center. Also clear signs of strengthening, extrapolated pressure drop to roughly 975 and a more consistent eye wall wind pattern.

 

recon_NOAA2-1509A-IAN_timeseries.png

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Cool sunrise in progress, mid and high level clouds getting lit up real nice.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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A9E5878C-74B9-4BDB-BB81-7926649406B2.jpeg

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And any international efforts are opposed as well, of course.

Which is a problem. Unless India, China, and the rest of the Indo-Pacific region get on board in a significant way, whatever actions we take unilaterally will prove to be futile.

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At this point I think a top 5 warm October is almost a lock. I'd hit the over, HARD. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Meh

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Currently it is 61F at my location and clear. We had to move back to our summer configuration because it was quite warm where we sleep. Tonight and tomorrow will we sleep in our office with AC and then move back to the other room on Thursday.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Pretty good article on the PV and how we may see disruptions later this fall. Also my same thoughts on why we may see a weakened jet stream this year (which isn't necessarily a bad thing for the PNW if you like cold!).

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-early-disruptive-event-winter-influence-united-states-europe-fa/

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

extremes beget extremes 

Torching begets torching, never works the other way. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sometimes things actually do trend more towards cutting off.    We always mock models for being cut-off happy but generally ignore it when it goes the other way.   

The 12Z GFS yesterday for Sunday on top... new 12Z GFS on the bottom.     

 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4712000 (1).png

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-4712000 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4712000.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-4712000.png

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  • Weenie 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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