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The pattern over Eurasia at the end of the 12z ECMWF is the first “positive” development I’ve seen so far.

B2EF7D22-DFFB-4CBB-9004-FBEE3CB2E367.png

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9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Quite Smoky here today. 

Just stepped outside for lunch, and yeah its kinda yucky up here too.  My wife and I are battling a cold that has turned into a nasty cough, and the smoke is definitely NOT helping.

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The 12z ECMWF Rainfall totals ending 5 PM Thursday

The EURO has suddenly turned quite wet Wednesday-Thursday, especially for western Oregon. That figures I was going fishing in memory of my brother on that day. Cancelled now. Ensembles in agreement too. Oh well....

May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'Total QPF (in) over model run F084 Valid: 2022-09 C”ntefo ange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) This service based products fthe ECMWF. 0.2 Init: Mon 2022- 9-26 12z ECMWF Hi-Res www.pivotabveather.com 0.01 .05 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 2 2.5 piv#tal weather 3 3.5'

floop-ecmwf_full-2022092612.qpf_acc.us_nw.gif

May be an image of text that says 'P1 Portland (US) 850 hPa Temp. & Precipitation P10 30 Mon, 26Sep2022 12Z 25 20 P30 P35 P34 P36 P39 P41 P43 (.)dwa 10 P40 P42 P46 Contro mean Oper 1981-2010 mean 0 10 26Sep 0Ãz 26Sep 12z 27Sep 00z 27Sep 12z 28Sep 00z 28Sep ECMWF Ensemble, 45.6N, 122.8W Date 29Sep 00z 29Sep 12z 30Sep 00z 30Sep 12z 010ct 00z Wetterzentrale.de'

Well, at least you cancelled your fishing outing. That should hopefully send most of the precip north, thank you!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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EC ensemble precip totals thru hr 240

EC ensemble precip totals.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

But mass action starts at the individual level. Same argument applies for voting.

We as a country need to match our GHG emissions with our environmental values, not just because we have faith in other countries joining us, but because we exert *some* kind of influence on the atmosphere, be it big or small. Because we can. Because it is who we are, and who we ought to be.

So… do SOMETHING rather than NOTHING. Interesting idea…

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s 1967 again.

 

Looks like NOAA Gulfstream IV just finished a recon flight and is headed back to the barn.

 

https://www.flightradar24.com/NOAA49/2d9dea7e

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3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it has reminded me of 2012 in a sense as well. Obviously that fall was cooler than this one, but it will be interesting to see if the storm train gets going once the pattern changes. Unfortunately there is really no indication the pattern will change... And that is a significant concern. 

I assume you're counting all of September as part of fall?

A forum for the end of the world.

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18z GFS made a big move towards the Euro in the short term. First soaking rain of the fall could be on tap here.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like Silver Falls ended up with the 2nd warmest August on record with a mean of 67.0. Well behind August 1967. Mostly a function of the exceptionally mild overnight lows. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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And another 90F burger...jeez.

Miami Dolphins' Myles Gaskin carves out a role in crowded backfield

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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List of October's with less than 1" of rain at SLE. 

2013

2008

2006

2002

1988

1987

1978

1972

1964

1952

1936

1925

1917

1911

1907

1895

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Meanwhile it is still -35 at Newport!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

List of October's with less than 1" of rain at SLE. 

2013

2008

2006

2002

1988

1987

1978

1972

1964

1952

1936

1925

1917

1911

1907

1895

Some really cold winters in there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm getting pretty bummed out now.  I thought for sure a meaningful change would be either here or definitely in sight by now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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19 hours ago, Phil said:

Can’t believe how fast this core is tightening up.

Could be a category-2 already. And almost certainly will be at some point tonight.

D139F3AD-E899-4E79-876B-D5273AFEE1F0.gif

Looks like a volcano erupting. Crazy rapid development and intensification.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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58 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z GFS made a big move towards the Euro in the short term. First soaking rain of the fall could be on tap here.

Pretty unimpressive up this way.  Kind of odd to have the main rain events going south of us on two consecutive troughs this early in the season.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I remember the autumn of 2012. Hated it. This is starting to feel eerily familiar.

Then it rained ALOT

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I remember the autumn of 2012. Hated it. This is starting to feel eerily familiar.

That one changed big time in the second half of October.  We'll see if that happens this time.  I just don't get what is going on this year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm getting pretty bummed out now.  I thought for sure a meaningful change would be either here or definitely in sight by now.

Saving it for winter. 

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The 18z GFS is just flat out horrible.  That F...ing recurring Eastern trough.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That one changed big time in the second half of October.  We'll see if that happens this time.  I just don't get what is going on this year.

Well in theory, a weak jet would provide a better chance at arctic airmasses reaching the region, all else being equal.

Downside is drought concerns are exacerbated.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Saving it for winter. 

Perhaps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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