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I would rather waste my October than key months in DJF. We had like 2 good weeks and 10 weeks of complete garbage last winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS is just flat out horrible.  That F...ing recurring Eastern trough.

That downstream trough is a response to the pattern over the Pacific, though. If/when the pattern changes it’ll probably originate from Eurasia.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would rather waste my October than key months in DJF. We had like 2 good weeks and 10 weeks of complete garbage last winter. 

The December event was nice here but disappointing since it was originally looking like a full on arctic blast and the February event was nice too. However NW OR underachieved on low temps because of the wind I think.

4/11/22 was forecast by the models very well and didn't disappoint! 2" of snow here in one of the most shadowed areas in onshore flow in the Portland Metro area. In April!

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Well in theory, a weak jet would provide a better chance at arctic airmasses reaching the region, all else being equal.

Downside is drought concerns are exacerbated.

I'm hating the configuration over the NE Pacific.  Just can't seem to get in a Nina mode.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would rather waste my October than key months in DJF. We had like 2 good weeks and 10 weeks of complete garbage last winter. 

The December event was top drawer here.  Still looking for that elusive good January though.  An interesting twist to what's going on right now is it increases the chances that January will be the best month of the winter if it gets good at all.

Cold / wet October's often go hand in hand with good winters.  Not sure why people are so down on them.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm hating the configuration over the NE Pacific.  Just can't seem to get in a Nina mode.

It actually is a La Niña like circulation..note the Aleutian High. Problem is it’s very west-based.

For early season cold in Western North America you’d want a trough over the NW-Pacific.

38FCAABE-6307-43CF-8850-94701C6BC233.gif

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42 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

The December event was nice here but disappointing since it was originally looking like a full on arctic blast and the February event was nice too. However NW OR underachieved on low temps because of the wind I think.

4/11/22 was forecast by the models very well and didn't disappoint! 2" of snow here in one of the most shadowed areas in onshore flow in the Portland Metro area. In April!

I have yet to see more than slushy flurries in April in the nearly 30 years I have lived in the PNW (excluding trips into the mountains, of course). The time Seattle got a significant April snowfall, I was living in Portland. When PDX did, I was living in Vancouver, BC. So it goes.

Got see plenty of ’em when I lived in the Rockies, though. And a few May snowstorms, too.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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I see people complaining about aspects of winter or lamenting a possible dud...we haven't had a sub-freezing high here since the 2016-17 winter. No Arctic episodes since that point...none.

Somehow I don't feel like this area is due for a dud. We've never gone this long without an outright Arctic air intrusion.

Snow on the other hand has been plentiful. Very wet and heavy snow but I have enjoyed the fuckk out of it. It's just weird as hell to have gone this long without a true Arctic event.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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It seems like the rain and cooler air is never gonna come.  Heat forever in the PNW now...

In all seriousness, the smoke is back for the majority of the Puget Sound and parts of Western Oregon.  Here are some maps and satellite images.  Most locations are now at moderate with some unhealthy thrown in.  Don't expect conditions to improve until we finally get this blasted heat away, some rain, and onshore flower.  We've been promised rain for many weeks now, and it never comes as forecasted.  

I'm grumpy about this.

Screen Shot 2022-09-26 at 5.45.34 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-26 at 5.38.41 PM.png

Smoke 1.png

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8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Late onset of the rains, abyssmal mushroom season.

The mushroom season is really the most important thing... collecting fungus in the forest is all we care about.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I see people complaining about aspects of winter or lamenting a possible dud...we haven't had a sub-freezing high here since the 2016-17 winter. No Arctic episodes since that point...none.

Somehow I don't feel like this area is due for a dud. We've never gone this long without an outright Arctic air intrusion.

Snow on the other hand has been plentiful. Very wet and heavy snow but I have enjoyed the fuckk out of it. It's just weird as hell to have gone this long without a true Arctic event.

Yeah I’m trying to talk myself into it today! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Low clouds are already surging inland.  Tomorrow should be quite a bit cooler.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Yikes..18z EPS is ugly for Tampa. Consensus track is actually right over my Dad’s house in Bradenton.

Might fly/drive down there last minute. We’ll see.

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

forecast High for tomorrow in Spokane is 89. the previous record was 87 in, drumroll please

 

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1967!!

 

The thing is the 500mb pattern that brought the hot September in 1967 was totally different than this year.  That year there were many more hot days than this year.  This September's warmth is mainly from high mins the first half of the month.

That was only a first year Nina also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Low clouds are already surging inland.  Tomorrow should be quite a bit cooler.

ECMWF shows patchy low clouds getting into Seattle for a couple hours tomorrow morning but also shows 79 for a high in the afternoon... which is the same high temp it showed for today.     It seems like it would have to be a little cooler if low clouds make it into Seattle in the morning even if they are gone by 9 or 10 a.m.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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55 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

It seems like the rain and cooler air is never gonna come.  Heat forever in the PNW now...

In all seriousness, the smoke is back for the majority of the Puget Sound and parts of Western Oregon.  Here are some maps and satellite images.  Most locations are now at moderate with some unhealthy thrown in.  Don't expect conditions to improve until we finally get this blasted heat away, some rain, and onshore flower.  We've been promised rain for many weeks now, and it never comes as forecasted.  

I'm grumpy about this.

 

Me too.  Not at all what I expected.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing is the 500mb pattern that brought the hot September in 1967 was totally different than this year.  That year there were many more hot days than this year.  This September's warmth is mainly from high mins the first half of the month.

That was only a first year Nina also.

Decent snowstorm in January 1968 though. ~5" of snow and sustained east winds of 30mph at one point here from the COOP station.

image.png.5ef9538479794b004f7d981d4d04c685.png

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The interesting thing to see is whether we will come out of this with a predominately cold pattern or a wet one.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Doiinko said:

Decent snowstorm in January 1968 though. ~5" of snow and sustained east winds of 30mph at one point here.

The winter was ok until the ugly torch in Feb.  I would consider it a disappointment, but not a total bust.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing is the 500mb pattern that brought the hot September in 1967 was totally different than this year.  That year there were many more hot days than this year.  This September's warmth is mainly from high mins the first half of the month.

That was only a first year Nina also.

I think 1967 is a decent 500mb match, actually.

FB0515E8-F199-4DEB-BEA4-B7FE41D01F47.png

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The interesting thing to see is whether we will come out of this with a predominately cold pattern or a wet one.

What if its just normal with rain on many days but nothing extreme and some dry days mixed in and temps around average?    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just a reminder. PDX had measurable snow the 2nd week of April. Impossible is nothing!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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45 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yikes..18z EPS is ugly for Tampa. Consensus track is actually right over my Dad’s house in Bradenton.

Might fly/drive down there last minute. We’ll see.

Quite a shift east from the 12z EPS. A lot of members now take Ian across the Florida peninsula. Hopefully we can get some solid model agreement on the 00z runs tonight so we can shrink down the cone.

 

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10 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Quite a shift east from the 12z EPS. A lot of members now take Ian across the Florida peninsula. Hopefully we can get some solid model agreement on the 00z runs tonight so we can shrink down the cone.

 

Is it looking like Ian will bottom out as a Cat 3 or a Cat 4?

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