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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well a strong jet would flood western Canada with mild air so I’m not sure that’d bode well either.

Yes, in the winter. Again we generally want to see that stronger forcing at times in the fall as an early indicator of cold air movement up north.

Truly wall to wall amplified cold seasons are incredibly rare anyways. Maybe 1976-77 and a handful of others in the last century. If we haven't seen a strong jet or signs of consolidated patterns by late November then the chances are high that we will see one arise in mid-winter and quite literally have it rain on our parades.

And right now Western Canada is still being flooded with mild air anyways and there's no jet to boot. Just a complete lack of any meaningful cold anomalies across the entire continent this month once again. Even AK has been quite mild again. Just have to reiterate that there just really aren't many favorable signs at the moment.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yes, in the winter. Again we generally want to see that stronger forcing at times in the fall as an early indicator of cold air movement up north.

Truly wall to wall amplified cold seasons are incredibly rare anyways. Maybe 1976-77 and a handful of others in the last century. If we haven't seen a strong jet or signs of consolidated patterns by late November then the chances are high that we will see one arise in mid-winter and quite literally have it rain on our parades.

And right now Western Canada is still being flooded with mild air anyways and there's no jet to boot. Just a complete lack of any meaningful cold anomalies across the entire continent this month once again. Even AK has been quite mild again. Just have to reiterate that there  justreally aren't many favorable signs at the moment.

Yeah the cold air has to come from somewhere.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll just have to wait and see.  We have years like 1929-30, 1936-37, and 1942-43 that worked out really nicely in January.  1942 was a Nina and it didn't get active until the very end of October.

I am getting antsy though.

1929-30 got its jet stream activity out of the way kind of all at once in December. And even that featured a suppressed arctic airmass that bled through the Fraser River and delivered some nice snow from about Everett-north. 

1936-37 kind of did the same thing with a brief +EPO stretch in December before that reversed dramatically in January.

1942-43 had a real onslaught of storms beginning in late October, with a top tier wet November. Definitely pretty anemic in the early fall, though.

 

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Looking at the SLE precip data kind of calmed me down. A lot of very dry September/October combos down this way.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah the cold air has to come from somewhere.

All of Asia is colder than normal right now.  At least 90% according to the global temperature map I have a link to.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the SLE precip data kind of calmed me down. A lot of very dry September/October combos down this way.

Like Jim pointed out, the more unusual aspect is the already historically dry astronomical summer period. Throwing an additional near bone dry 6 weeks on top of that would put this in even more rarified air.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the SLE precip data kind of calmed me down. A lot of very dry September/October combos down this way.

Yeah dry Sept/Oct are not all that uncommon for the region. The last few years have been wet which helped drown the flames both literally and figuratively on here. This year we’re of course not seeing that after yet another torchy summer which seems to have everyone on edge!

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Like Jim pointed out, the more unusual aspect is the already historically dry astronomical summer period. Throwing an additional near bone dry 6 weeks on top of that would put this in even more rarified air.

IMO, the summer climate has shifted so much in the PNW that summer time analogs are pretty much useless to predict winter weather.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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30 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah dry Sept/Oct are not all that uncommon for the region. The last few years have been wet which helped drown the flames both literally and figuratively on here. This year we’re of course not seeing that after yet another torchy summer which seems to have everyone on edge!

I guess I don’t read much into torchy summers anymore, they have become so typical. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, Kayla said:

IMO, the summer climate has shifted so much in the PNW that summer time analogs are pretty much useless to predict winter weather.

I never really understood why so many people talk about analogs to predict what's going to happen 3 months from now.

You can correlate any 2 weather events/patterns if you look hard enough.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS just skunks the Seattle area.   And the area around the Bolt Creek fire.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-4485200.png

Last fall, every storm had the BC Lower Mainland in its crosshairs, this year they all go south. One of these years a nice happy medium would be welcome.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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10 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I never really understood why so many people talk about analogs to predict what's going to happen 3 months from now.

You can correlate any 2 weather events/patterns if you look hard enough.

This viewpoint is way too skeptical.  The guys who get paid the big bucks for this stuff use analogs as one of many tools to do long range forecasting.  You need to learn more about it before coming down so hard on the notion.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I guess I don’t read much into torchy summers anymore, they have become so typical. 

I think the dryness is the bigger deal this year.  I'm at 100 days with less than a half inch.  Nearly a third of a year!  Before this is over the numbers could get really mind boggling.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS goes through some pretty wild convulsions, but finally gets to something decent late in the run.  The models are going to have real problems with this.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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36 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This viewpoint is way too skeptical.  The guys who get paid the big bucks for this stuff use analogs as one of many tools to do long range forecasting.  You need to learn more about it before coming down so hard on the notion.

There’s analogs and then there’s analogs. Last year was a very good analog for 1990; that became quite obvious by November, and sure enough, there was a prolonged cold snap in December. I don’t see anything comparably good this year, and last year the analog was only a month or two out, not 3+ months.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Tampa Bay folks need to breathe a sign of relief they won't get a direct hit from Ian. They will still see some storm damage though.

 

This isn't entirely accurate--though the chances are now higher that areas south of Tampa are primarily impacted-- there still does exist the possibility for a strike closer to Tampa so they really can't breathe that sigh of relief yet. 

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--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Yes, in the winter. Again we generally want to see that stronger forcing at times in the fall as an early indicator of cold air movement up north.

Truly wall to wall amplified cold seasons are incredibly rare anyways. Maybe 1976-77 and a handful of others in the last century. If we haven't seen a strong jet or signs of consolidated patterns by late November then the chances are high that we will see one arise in mid-winter and quite literally have it rain on our parades.

And right now Western Canada is still being flooded with mild air anyways and there's no jet to boot. Just a complete lack of any meaningful cold anomalies across the entire continent this month once again. Even AK has been quite mild again. Just have to reiterate that there just really aren't many favorable signs at the moment.

This post is probably the most favorable sign we've got.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Like Jim pointed out, the more unusual aspect is the already historically dry astronomical summer period. Throwing an additional near bone dry 6 weeks on top of that would put this in even more rarified air.

1. Pretty likely that doesn't happen.

2. Why worry so much about analogs if you're seeing something virtually unprecedented?

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A forum for the end of the world.

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59 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

If we have to go back to the early 1900s to find a decent analog we are probably in trouble this winter.  

Not sure why that would be.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Looks like SEA is going to have to wait for a while for rain.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One thing to watch toward day 10 is that ULL being shunted westward over the GOA / Aleutians.  Could open the door for something, but very iffy at best.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There’s analogs and then there’s analogs. Last year was a very good analog for 1990; that became quite obvious by November, and sure enough, there was a prolonged cold snap in December. I don’t see anything comparably good this year, and last year the analog was only a month or two out, not 3+ months.

The thing is you have general analogs just based on ENSO and QBO for example that have a better chance of leading to one outcome than another just based on past history.  I think a more specific analog(s) will crystalize in the coming weeks when we see how this finally changes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We had some fun while boating on Lake Tapps on Sunday and went to a couple open houses... just pulled boat up to their docks and walked up.   There are some beautiful homes on that lake and its way more affordable than Lake Sammamish and Lake Washington.  We were contemplating what it would be like to live in Bonney Lake on the water.  👍

The traffic up 410 is horrible. Lake Tapps is super nice tho. 

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2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Some flippen' rain would be nice...

 

Screen Shot 2022-09-28 at 12.54.08 AM.png

It sure would.  Some places in the Seattle area may get absolutely nothing out of this.  Next shot is about a week out.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It saddens me how inactive weather talk is for other parts of the country, especially with Hurricane Ian going on in Florida right now.  Since no-one is really discussing it in other parts of the forum, and I saw some are chatter about it here, I will post something about it here.  I have some minor updates and new satellite imagery share! (Nothing really that hasn't already been said by others here though).

Hurricane Ian looks scary here.  Also the surf surge on Florida's Eastern Coast probably isn't something you want to mess with right now.

140324052_ScreenShot2022-09-28at12_57_07AM.thumb.png.76eb7e3c5c227fc2972a34657733ef3b.png

Still Category 3 currently, but the damaging thing is going to be rain, tidal surge, and flooding.  All which don't go great with the largest man-made canal system's in the world and building cities on top of swamps. 

Here is some satellite imagery from about fifteen minutes ago.  Heavy and moderate rains are now hitting Cape Coral.  

Prayers to them all.  Will continue to monitor. 

1890620998_ScreenShot2022-09-28at1_03_43AM.thumb.png.1de07488e1de0bb84f16b9171ce8b1ce.png

1764037666_ScreenShot2022-09-28at1_04_19AM.thumb.png.7f7115f95966dbef7d0cb9798edf6c2e.png

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48 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

It saddens me how inactive weather talk is for other parts of the country, especially with Hurricane Ian going on in Florida right now.  Since no-one is really discussing it in other parts of the forum, and I saw some are chatter about it here, I will post something about it here.  I have some minor updates and new satellite imagery share! (Nothing really that hasn't already been said by others here though).

Hurricane Ian looks scary here.  Also the surf surge on Florida's Eastern Coast probably isn't something you want to mess with right now.

140324052_ScreenShot2022-09-28at12_57_07AM.thumb.png.76eb7e3c5c227fc2972a34657733ef3b.png

Still Category 3 currently, but the damaging thing is going to be rain, tidal surge, and flooding.  All which don't go great with the largest man-made canal system's in the world and building cities on top of swamps. 

Here is some satellite imagery from about fifteen minutes ago.  Heavy and moderate rains are now hitting Cape Coral.  

Prayers to them all.  Will continue to monitor. 

1890620998_ScreenShot2022-09-28at1_03_43AM.thumb.png.1de07488e1de0bb84f16b9171ce8b1ce.png

1764037666_ScreenShot2022-09-28at1_04_19AM.thumb.png.7f7115f95966dbef7d0cb9798edf6c2e.png

We will have more chatter about Ian here the next couple of days as it makes its way through Florida. The 00z EURO is still showing strong gust well inland and heavy rainfall for the Florida peninsula. Along with hurricane force winds and storm surge, freshwater flooding will also be an issue. Praying for the people of Florida. 🙏 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092800_24_507_380.thumb.png.1ec63bf961874759883aced61ac043ca.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092800_30_507_380.thumb.png.64eafb632bb84dbfe995b0239a44eff7.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2022092800_73_507_220.thumb.png.b0a9cca374ac4812ae6879652d280368.png

 

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32 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

She's a CAT 4 now. 140mph peak sustained winds, and still strengthening. Eye appears to be tightening. Outside shot of this strengthening enough in the next 12 hours to get one more upgrade before landfall. Very dangerous situation for FL.

Yeah, it's going to try and make a run at Cat 5 but might just run out of time before landfall. Either way, very bad news for Florida.

 

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