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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not saying a word about the EPS....

You are learning!     

Huge changes on the EPS in the 11-15 day period... troughing comes down from the north and parks itself over the West.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

D**n, I'm hoping they have mandatory evacuations in place.

 

Horrible.    I was talking to a co-worker yesterday who lives in Cape Coral and he was getting pretty worried.   I hope people have heeded the warnings and got out of the way.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Radar suggests we might actually get a little rain here. Not sure I remember how to act when it rains. 

Be very still and calm so you don't scare it away... its shy and skittish.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Horrible.    I was talking to a co-worker yesterday who lives in Cape Coral and he was getting pretty worried.   I hope people have heeded the warnings and got out of the way.   

Wow I really hope they left. It is looking like that region will be ground zero for the worst impacts. 

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6 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

It saddens me how inactive weather talk is for other parts of the country, especially with Hurricane Ian going on in Florida right now.  Since no-one is really discussing it in other parts of the forum, and I saw some are chatter about it here, I will post something about it here.  I have some minor updates and new satellite imagery share! (Nothing really that hasn't already been said by others here though).

Hurricane Ian looks scary here.  Also the surf surge on Florida's Eastern Coast probably isn't something you want to mess with right now.

140324052_ScreenShot2022-09-28at12_57_07AM.thumb.png.76eb7e3c5c227fc2972a34657733ef3b.png

Still Category 3 currently, but the damaging thing is going to be rain, tidal surge, and flooding.  All which don't go great with the largest man-made canal system's in the world and building cities on top of swamps. 

Here is some satellite imagery from about fifteen minutes ago.  Heavy and moderate rains are now hitting Cape Coral.  

Prayers to them all.  Will continue to monitor. 

1890620998_ScreenShot2022-09-28at1_03_43AM.thumb.png.1de07488e1de0bb84f16b9171ce8b1ce.png

1764037666_ScreenShot2022-09-28at1_04_19AM.thumb.png.7f7115f95966dbef7d0cb9798edf6c2e.png

Nasty stuff, I spent a fair amount of time on Long Boat Key as a kid.  My godmother had a place on the water (ocean side), and some distant cousins still have a place in the same condo complex.  Looks like they will for the most part be on the lee side of island for this storm.

My god mother had some crazy evacuation stories.  She had a fishing boat in Long Boat and a motor yacht and a couple of condos in West Palm Beach (yeah she was loaded).  One time in the early 80's they had to evacuate in t he middle of the night from Long Boat and decided to go to West Palm.  Half way to West Palm they got news the storm's track had shifted, so they had to turn around and try to get back to Long Boat.  They got the fishing boat out of the water, but not the yacht. In the end, the storm fizzled as it came ashore, the yacht rode out the storm and it was a long sleepless night sitting in traffic.

 

One of many reasons I could never live down there.  Yeah I know we have a big 9.0 lurking for us, but its gonna happen, we pick up the pieces and move on.  Living down in Florida you have to deal with this on a very regular basis.  No thanks.

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11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Ian is coming ashore as a strong Cat 4 that like Michael may be upgraded to Cat 5 after the fact.

Ft. Meyers beach cam:

 

I was just getting ready to post this exact link LOL

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A little light rain this morning. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS ensemble is still a sea or as some would say an OCEAN of warmth!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Up to about a thousandth of an inch of rain here. 

Radar is very anemic, some steady sprinkles though. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Western Washington has some very nice areas. My uncle used to live in Bellingham and it was gorgeous. I like the Olympia area too. My wife has family friends in Port Angeles and it seemed nice, but I have not spent much time there. Eastern Washington is not really my jam, but I like Spokane and places north of there and where Snowmizer has a cabin seem nice. And of course Leavenworth is beautiful, but I don’t think I would want to live in such a tourist town. 

I mostly agree with this.  We go to Eastern Wa. a couple, to a few times a year for family.  I don't see it as much of a destination.  I grew up in the OC, a few miles from the Huntington Beach Pier.  I loved it!  Now I hate it. Great in the 80s, not so much now.  I don't surf anymore so I prefer our Washington Beaches now.  My favorite spot is almost anywhere on the Olympic Peninsula.  Not one favorite spot there though.  It has too many micro-climates and varied environments.  I love this island though.   We are close enough to Seattle, and yet far removed.  We have great beaches, trails, restaurants, chill people and not too many busy roads.  PA is awesome.  Olympia is WAAY too busy for me now.  I prefer to be able to walk to the grocery store and the beach. I really like what I have seen of Oregon, but honestly it has been limited to the coast and the I-5 corridor. We are going to explore more, soon.  Your area intrigues me a lot.

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Low of 54 this morning…cloudy currently. Haven’t had any rain yet not expecting much either. 

You didn’t get anything? My ground is covered but I am guessing I got less than .05

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Another "surge" of moisture comes through down here tonight. Sometimes we do pretty well in these kind of situations. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Model consensus looks to be about 1/4-1/3" of rain here overnight, then there is the EURO which shows like an inch last I saw. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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EURO sticking to its guns on the 06z. 

ecmwf_apcpn_nwus_30.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 hours ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

12 to 16 feet storm surge now being forecasted around Charlotte Harbor, from Englewood to Bonita Beach. 😨

 

Can't get over how high some of the surge they are predicting.  Water submerging your entire first floor!

Watching the news, it seems some people are idiots and still outside.  #DarwinWasRight

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5 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Can't get over how high some of the surge they are predicting.  Water submerging your entire first floor!

Watching the news, it seems some people are idiots and still outside.  #DarwinWasRight

Strong Cat 4, maybe even a Cat 5 by the time it hits, gradual undersea slope. It’s the recipe for a high surge. And it’s gonna be bad, because storm surge is the most damaging aspect of a hurricane. This is one of those hurricanes where there will be aerial pictures of entire communities wiped off the map.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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58 at UW Tacoma right now on the first day back, right on par with the dreary and rainy autumn vibes to just stay inside and make the best study aesthetic 🍂📚 

0520422C-5029-479F-AAEC-74C0A55E023F.jpeg

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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50 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

So destructive yet so beautiful. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Florida-truecolor-16_06Z-20220928_map_-48-1n-10-100.gif

Can't believe it pulled a Michael and Charley all in one storm. 

Very reminiscent of super typhoons in the Western Pacific, but in the Gulf instead. 

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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