PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

I don’t get the negativity. Nothing exciting was going to happen in early October anyway so the weather might as well be nice. Save the deep troughs and cold for when it counts.

Might be the fact we need rain…don’t think it has to do with the wanting cold troughs and cold anomalies. More about ending the smoke threat and things not being so bone dry. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I don’t get the negativity. Nothing exciting was going to happen in early October anyway so the weather might as well be nice. Save the deep troughs and cold for when it counts.

Are you aware of the wildfires that have been burning throughout the region? Also, warmest and driest July-September on record for many areas is notably extreme and goes way beyond just having “nice” weather.

There really hasn’t been a ton of negatively anyway. I’ve mostly seen a mix of delusional detachment and fake concern from those racking up the biggest post counts the last month or so.

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Might be the fact we need rain…don’t think it has to do with the wanting cold troughs and cold anomalies. More about ending the smoke threat and things not being so bone dry. 

Exactly this. No one is disappointed that it's not another October 2019.

Looks like the Cedar Creek fire is now at 25% containment.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Are you aware of the wildfires that have been burning throughout the region? Also, warmest and driest July-September on record for many areas is notably extreme and goes way beyond just having “nice” weather.

There really hasn’t been a ton of negatively anyway. I’ve mostly seen a mix of delusional detachment and fake concern from those racking up the biggest post counts the last month or so.

 

 

What would Solomon say?

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Exactly this. No one is disappointed that it's not another October 2019.

Looks like the Cedar Creek fire is now at 25% containment.

I wouldn't say no one. Although, October, 2019 was way too dry for my liking, but the complete lack of warmth is awesome. The warmest day that month will be way cooler than our coolest day this year for at least the first 10 days. 

I feel like we're missing out on one of the most glorious times of year here... grass greening up, crisp nights, cool pleasant days, colors starting to show. It's very disappointing. 

[kokaneekidz]

26 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I don’t get the negativity. Nothing exciting was going to happen in early October anyway so the weather might as well be nice. Save the deep troughs and cold for when it counts.

It's hopeless we'll never make it lol

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I am deeply skeptical about where the Euro is going at day 10. Feels like the models have tried this before in the last several weeks and we just end up with more ridging as another batch of energy drops out over the GOA.

Probably best to use the GFS as a long range guide at this point 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Probably best to use the GFS as a long range guide at this point 

 

[TT-SEA]

52 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Are you aware of the wildfires that have been burning throughout the region? Also, warmest and driest July-September on record for many areas is notably extreme and goes way beyond just having “nice” weather.

There really hasn’t been a ton of negatively anyway. I’ve mostly seen a mix of delusional detachment and fake concern from those racking up the biggest post counts the last month or so.

 

 

There is the usual forced moral outrage.

Speaking for myself... I live here and would like some rain.   Nothing fake about it.   Don't want rain every day yet... but a little balance would be nice.     

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS tries to get slightly more troughy around day 10 but ends up right back where we are now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

PDX already up to 66 with sunbreaks starting to show up. Pretty unlikely they stay below 70 today, which would make it the first time in history that they’ve failed to do that in September.

Also kicks the can for longest 70+ stretch on record down the road at least another 7-10 days.

[TT-SEA]

Thank you Orioles!  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

All of our moods will turn around in November! Going to be epic! MBG!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX already up to 66 with sunbreaks starting to show up. Pretty unlikely they stay below 70 today, which would make it the first time in history that they’ve failed to do that in September.

Also kicks the can for longest 70+ stretch on record down the road at least another 7-10 days.

Go big or go home I suppose. What if we see epic payback in 3-4 months. WHAT IF?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wow he was so young then. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

STILL raining here. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Go big or go home I suppose. What if we see epic payback in 3-4 months. WHAT IF?!

Lets have the cold payback come from November - January and get onto a proper spring this time around.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we managed to pick up 0.20" out of this event. That's gonna be close to our total for the month...oof.

[TT-SEA]

Pullman has picked up more rain just today alone than North Bend has had in the last 3+ months.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lets have the cold payback come from November - January and get onto a proper spring this time around.  

I feel like we just had a proper spring, maybe a little bit more in the way of cold troughing in May for some cooler nights would be nice. The rain didn't ruin my spring. Having a newborn, COVID, and then the flu, did. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like we just had a proper spring, maybe a little bit more in the way of cold troughing in May for some cooler nights would be nice. The rain didn't ruin my spring. Having a newborn, COVID, and then the flu, did. 

It was far from a proper spring up here.   We were short about 35-40 dry days compared to climo.    Next spring pretty much has to be an improvement. 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like we just had a proper spring, maybe a little bit more in the way of cold troughing in May for some cooler nights would be nice. The rain didn't ruin my spring. Having a newborn, COVID, and then the flu, did. 

Babies suck

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It was far from a proper spring up here.   We were short about 35-40 dry days compared to climo.    Next spring pretty much has to be an improvement. 

Would be funny if it's not. Actually it would be even funnier if we had a "normal" spring followed by a 1983 like summer. Don't worry, it won't happen. 

We were due for at least one chilly wet spring after our driest May on record in 2018, incredibly dry March 2019, record dry spring 2021... Don't worry, we probably will not have another cold wet spring for another decade or two. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Babies suck

They are alright, a blessing and such, but a cranky newborn, six weeks of illness, and then all that GOSH DARN RAIN. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thank you Orioles!  

Bought my playoff tickets!

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Would be funny if it's not. Actually it would be even funnier if we had a "normal" spring followed by a 1983 like summer. Don't worry, it won't happen. 

We were due for at least one chilly wet spring after our driest May on record in 2018, incredibly dry March 2019, record dry spring 2021... Don't worry, we probably will not have another cold wet spring for another decade or two. 

It almost could not physically rain on more days than it did during astronomical spring this year.   It was just a couple days away from the most days possible. 

But if I loved rain in the summer... I would be cheering for a dry spring.   The odds are much improved. 

I just want a climo spring.   Nothing too extreme either way.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Bought my playoff tickets!

[TT-SEA]

Of course there is a decent chance they make the playoffs and don't ever have a home game.   Playing on the road and losing in the first round.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Mariners literally have no chance. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Mariners literally have no chance. 

Just making the playoffs will be enough for most fans.   And continue to improve next year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just making the playoffs will be enough for most fans.   And continue to improve next year.

They could beat the "Guardians" they aren't really world beaters. I am honestly shocked to hear how quickly the tickets went. Baseball is a dying sport. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is probably the lowest most depressingly hopeless I have ever seen this forum. 

I get the antsiness for the return of Fall rains, but the wintertime doom and gloom is a bit dramatic. Very little correlation between October weather patterns and Winter weather patterns, save for -ENSO climo matching.

None of this whining is new or even that bad though... Jan 2019 may be the most abysmal this forum has ever been. The horrible dry/warm/splitty NDJ, with nothing remotely decent in sight. Of course it all culminated in the best winter weather month for the PNW since Dec 2008, but before then there was no hope.... and also no precedent for what was about to unfold, given the winter preceding it!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I get the antsiness for the return of Fall rains, but the wintertime doom and gloom is a bit dramatic. Very little correlation between October weather patterns and Winter weather patterns, save for -ENSO climo matching.

None of this whining is new or even that bad though... Jan 2019 may be the most abysmal this forum has ever been. The horrible dry/warm/splitty NDJ, with nothing remotely decent in sight. Of course it all culminated in the best winter weather month for the PNW since Dec 2008, but before then there was no hope.... and also no precedent for what was about to unfold, given the winter preceding it!

Not here . We did get an inch on the 4th though and 3" at the end of the month though which was nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I may be releasing my seasonal forecast this week. OMG

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I may be releasing my seasonal forecast this week. OMG

I was scrolling through the threads a bit ago and saw your forecast for 2019/2020 which was pretty good!

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course there is a decent chance they make the playoffs and don't ever have a home game.   Playing on the road and losing in the first round.

Be optimistic!!!!

[TacomaWx]

68 after a low of 56 this morning. Pretty nice day again. Wonder if we might hit 80 in October this would be the year to do it. 

[Doinko]

PDX had a low of 61  but we might have a midnight one

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I was scrolling through the threads a bit ago and saw your forecast for 2019/2020 which was pretty good!

It was... I actually was pretty IN on that winter until a few days before I wrote that one up. Despite all the doom and gloom, I am not out on this one. I fell like I need to stay away from forecasting a good January though... 

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was... I actually was pretty IN on that winter until a few days before I wrote that one up. Despite all the doom and gloom, I am not out on this one. I fell like I need to stay away from forecasting a good January though... 

My seasonal forecast.