PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Phishy Wx]

10 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

Getting some solid convection outside right now. We had a flash and a loud boom that was almost instantaneous which shook the house. Son is wide awake now but hoping he can go back to sleep since he stayed home yesterday. He likes the storm. Much better than I when I was young. Lightning was my top fear as a kid

 Looks like we're getting some solid rain but hard to tell at night.

that's pivoting up this way.  pouring now

 

 

decent rain today. off and on all day.  raining now.  at one point I had about a foot of standing water in the drainage ditch out by the street.  too bad its back to summer next week

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that's pivoting up this way.  pouring now

 

 

decent rain today. off and on all day.  raining now.  at one point I had about a foot of standing water in the drainage ditch out by the street.  too bad its back to summer next week

My son just sent me a video... looks like a monsoon in Pullman right now.   Just absolutely dumping rain.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be a gorgeous weekend.

Sorry, not sorry.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They could beat the "Guardians" they aren't really world beaters. I am honestly shocked to hear how quickly the tickets went. Baseball is a dying sport. 

It got stabbed in the heart when the legacy of the Dayton Triangles pulled this off.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_NFL_Championship_Game

[TT-SEA]

Barely a cloud in the sky here.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS might be going toward the ECMWF idea.

[snow_wizard]

It's pretty insane how the detail of what happens to that ULL makes all the difference in the world of how our pattern evolves.  A delicate balance!

[Phil]

This is nuts.

 

[LowerGarfield]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son just sent me a video... looks like a monsoon in Pullman right now.   Just absolutely dumping rain.

Moderate rain right now in Garfield County.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF weeklies look so so for us as we get deeper into October.  Pretty muted anomalies which means a lot of spread.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is nuts.

 

OMG.

[snow_wizard]

Slight run to run inconsistency on the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Slight run to run inconsistency on the GFS.

18Z GFS at 12 days out.   

And you just guaranteed the 00Z run will flip it around again.  

[LowerGarfield]

Getting some really heavy rainfall right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Slight run to run inconsistency on the GFS.

Meh

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A watched pot never boils. 

[TacomaWx]

Might stay below 70 today. Think we’ve only had 3 or 4 sub 70 days since 7/7. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another 0.16" today. Still cloudy, 62 degrees. 

[snow_wizard]

The MJO forecast is getting really interesting now.  A big wave being forecasted.  Nothing like that to shake things up.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Meh

The big news is this run shunts the ULL westward like the ECMWF.  A good outcome could happen.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Might stay below 70 today. Think we’ve only had 3 or 4 sub 70 days since 7/7. 

I've had 5 this month including yesterday and today.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is nuts.

 

It pretty much comes with the territory if you’re in the surge zone of a major hurricane. It is also why newer homes tend to be built on concrete stilts (often disguised with walls designed to wash away and let the surge pass through). It’s why I said we’re probably going to see aerial photos of towns mostly wiped off the map. It happened with Michael and Katrina, too.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

Most of this forum when an AR dumps inches of rain: “If only it was snow.”

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

Might be some rain outs in critical MLB games.

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The MJO forecast is getting really interesting now.  A big wave being forecasted.  Nothing like that to shake things up.

In the Ag Weather update... they said that the strong trade winds in the ENSO region will mute this signal more than shown and keep the MJO from progressing.    They also said that when the endless trade wind bursts end (supposedly in 3 or 4 weeks) and the Nina starts to weaken then we will see significant pattern changes.   So it looks like you now have to root for a weakening Nina.    

Anecdotally... ever since Phil started posting those trade wind charts with the blues and purples it has been consistently warm and dry here.   Recording setting in fact for July - September.   

[TT-SEA]

They say a "reprieve from fall" is on the way!    Finally! 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

70/56 at SEA today. 

Starting a new 70 degree streak.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A watched pot never boils. 

If this run verifies we have multiple record breaking warm days for the Willamette Valley in early October and a clean sweep of 70+ days going all the way to October 15. Saturday has 90 potential in the southern WV.

PDX also reached 70 today so this streak is going to get LONG.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be some rain outs in critical MLB games.

Good thing everyone will be watching football. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good thing everyone will be watching football. 

I will be too!   But the rain outs will still happen.

[Doinko]

I wouldn't guess that this forecast is for early October. Like everyone here I'm really hoping for rain and active weather! It's been kind of boring the past few weeks.

a

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I wouldn't guess that this forecast is for early October. Like everyone here I'm really hoping for rain and active weather! It's been kind of boring the past few weeks.

a

It’s going to be very warm during the day, but lows that warm would surprise me given the long nights 

[Omegaraptor]

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I wouldn't guess that this forecast is for early October. Like everyone here I'm really hoping for rain and active weather! It's been kind of boring the past few weeks.

a

Fun fact, the average high on October 5th for Bakersfield is 81°F and Las Vegas is 82°F.

CORVEGAS LIVING UP TO ITS NAME!

[Doinko]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s going to be very warm during the day, but lows that warm would surprise me given the long nights 

I think the forecast is for PDX but I'm not sure

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The lows are even more ridiculous than those highs.... 

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good thing everyone will be watching football. 

Football is just a bunch of dudes humping each other on astroturf. Lame. At least the cat/mouse psychological battle between pitcher and batter is cerebrally interesting.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 9/27/2022 at 6:01 AM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They better not postpone Sunday night football.

The Chiefs-Bucs game on Sunday night is going on as planned.

'Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady hopes the game can help bring people together for "a common good."

"I always feel like sports has brought people together over a long period of time," Brady said. And watching different adversities -- whether that was 9/11, whether that was [Hurricane] Katrina -- sports has an amazing way of kind healing wounds and bringing people together and bringing communities together in something to cheer for and a common interest and a common good. So I think anytime you can participate in things like that, it's a great feeling.

"... After what so many people have gone through in the state, it's great to go out there and give them something to cheer about."'

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34690772/kansas-city-chiefs-tampa-bay-buccaneers-game-remain-tampa-hurricane-ian

[Jakewestsalem]

Quite the moist low level atmosphere today. Several torrential cloudbursts in the eastern valley this afternoon.

Radar was showing next to nothing in the areas getting pummeled.

Wonder what the forcing mechanism was for such heavy rain with little vertical development of the cells?

[T-Town]

Michael Snyder says the end is near.