PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[snow_wizard]

Looks like potential for a rather impressive hurricane to hit Baja in the near future.  Not sure if that could throw any monkey wrenches into things or not.  The track it takes suggests it could affect the SW US.

[snow_wizard]

59 at SEA already.  Pretty darn cool for this early in the night.

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Model chaos right now... no way to know what will actually happen. 

Yea, I mean, for all we know it could snow a foot of hail next millennium.

Or, it could rain an inch of 90's next week.

Who knows?

[Cloud]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

59 at SEA already.  Pretty darn cool for this early in the night.

Just brought down my AC. Box fan near windows this time of year is a lot more efficient at cooling and cost effective too!

[snow_wizard]

This situation is going to be interesting to watch over the next weeks.  The HT eruption seems to have effected the strat temps the most at the 30mb level 25S to 65S.  Hard to say how much of this will eventually have implications for the N Hem.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS shows another summery weekend next week.   There is still hope!

And the Euro crushes this hope. Even some rain Wednesday! 
 

edit: you said weekend! Not week. Still… euro is already more coolish. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

107/43 at Elgin today 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And the Euro crushes this hope. Even some rain Wednesday! 
 

edit: you said weekend! Not week. Still… euro is already more coolish. 

I like what I'm seeing right now.  Big changes, but not a lot of gloom.  Could be a very dynamic autumn.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

107/43 at Elgin today 

Just your typical 64 degree spread.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

59 at SEA already.  Pretty darn cool for this early in the night.

57° now at SEA 

[TacomaWx]

Kind of bummed that the rain swings mostly through Washington instead of Oregon on this run. Still better than a ridge. Longer nights and higher dew points should help out with the fires down in central Oregon a bit atleast. 

[Cloud]

Interestingly enough, the Euro and GFS are nearly identical at the 500mb level 6 days out. Quite rare in agreement. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice to see the Euro, CMC and UKMET all holding their ground against the GFS in the handling of the midweek trough. That period seems to be setting the stage for the overall pattern progression next week.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Interestingly enough, the Euro and GFS are nearly identical at the 500mb level 6 days out. Quite rare in agreement. 

They are a lot different.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Would be nice to get some momentum on literally anything but endless dry and torching at this point. Even just near to slightly above average weather with some rain here and there would feel like a nice break.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro might be headed somewhere really nice.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

They are a lot different.

With the exception of the trough dropping over on eastern WA and ID… a lot of it looked similar to me. I’d still argue that this is pretty good agreement. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Cloud said:

With the exception of the trough dropping over on eastern WA and ID… a lot of it looked similar to me. I’d still argue that this is pretty good agreement. 

True. Both maps have some blue and red in various shapes and sizes. Nice to see some model agreement for once.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

With the exception of the trough dropping over on eastern WA and ID… a lot of it looked similar to me. I’d still argue that this is pretty good agreement. 

They do agree on ULL mania all over North America!  

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

True. Both maps have some blue and red in various shapes and sizes. Nice to see some model agreement for once.

You choose what you want to look at. I’m looking at overall. 

[Deweydog]

AIC at the venue formally known as the Clark County Amphitheater during a moderate marine push!

Leave our rain, a cold trade for warm sunshine…

[BLI snowman]

Pure fantasy stuff but 00z Euro takes the remnants of what will probably be Hurricane Kay straight up the coast and even phases it a bit with the imparting trough. Brings a little rain to the eastside.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

You choose what you want to look at. I’m looking at overall. 

They are pretty different patterns with large differences in sensible weather for us. But I sort of hate debates like this here so I’m fine dropping it.

[Phil]

GFS is a huge outlier on its ensemble mean FWIW. All by itself.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pure fantasy stuff but 00z Euro takes the remnants of what will probably be Hurricane Kay straight up the coast and even phases it a bit with the imparting trough. Brings a little rain to the eastside.

Yeah... was going to mention that remnants of that hurricane actually move through eastern WA.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is a huge outlier on its ensemble mean FWIW. All by itself.

Yeah it wasn’t mentioned earlier for obvious reasons but I noticed the same thing.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Despite the Euro being a good deal more reasonable than the GFS, I still count three opportunities for Matt to postulate if it will be the last 90 of 2022 for PDX (Tuesday, Friday and Saturday) 

[TT-SEA]

35 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And the Euro crushes this hope. Even some rain Wednesday! 
 

edit: you said weekend! Not week. Still… euro is already more coolish. 

Yeah... there are still some really nice days on the ECMWF too.    Even one of the weekend days next week.    Saturday is sunny and around 80 on this run.    Not all hope is gone!        

[Cloud]

Man… that was a heck of a Euro run. At least for W.WA a large part of the region will be done with the 80s for the foreseeable future. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Man… that was a heck of a Euro run. At least for W.WA a large part of the region will be done with the 80s for the foreseeable future. 

Well... not exactly.    There are some chances at 80s.    And remember the ECMWF is routinely 3-5 degrees too cold.    

[TT-SEA]

Have to say the ECMWF is definitely more consistent at this point.   Probably means it's going to be generally right.

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... not exactly.    There are some chances at 80s.    And remember the ECMWF is routinely 3-5 degrees too cold.    

We would have to find a day like today to get the 80s…. But at this point, warm/hot weather is running out of calendar and we are running out of daylight. We’re approaching fast at the cliff and by then it’ll  be mid-Sept. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

We would have to find a day like today to get the 80s…. But at this point, warm/hot weather is running out of calendar and we are running out of daylight. We’re approaching fast at the cliff and by then it’ll  be mid-Sept. 

Definitely becomes less likely with shorter days.   But I am pretty sure Sunday and Tuesday will be in the low 80s... at least out here.  Maybe Friday and Saturday too.    Probably not right in Seattle though. 

[Cloud]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... not exactly.    There are some chances at 80s.    And remember the ECMWF is routinely 3-5 degrees too cold.    

And fwiw, last year SEA saw 3 consecutive 80s days the first 10 days of Sept. And by after that, it was mostly in the 60s. Not saying the repeat for this year, but those 80s will become quite rare. Consider upper 70s still above normal if it does happen. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And fwiw, last year SEA saw 3 consecutive 80s days the first 10 days of Sept. And by after that, it was mostly in the 60s. Not saying the repeat for this year, but those 80s will become quite rare. Consider upper 70s still above normal if it does happen. 

Yes... its fall now.  

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Have to say the ECMWF is definitely more consistent at this point.   Probably means it's going to be generally right.

Good.

[TT-SEA]

Even the ECMWF is not exactly wet for the next 10 days...

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... its fall now.  

Should last another 89 days or so.

[TT-SEA]

Updated forecast on my phone looks very close to what the ECMWF is showing... even the added some rain on Thursday which was a change on the 00Z run.    Looks pretty nice... goldilocks weather.  

[snow_wizard]

Impressive EPS tonight.