PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, Cloud said:

We would have to find a day like today to get the 80s…. But at this point, warm/hot weather is running out of calendar and we are running out of daylight. We’re approaching fast at the cliff and by then it’ll  be mid-Sept. 

Yup....the summer pattern has pretty much run out.  Probably no extended summer this year.  Not to say there won't be a lot of nice days though.  Certainly a shot at a solid cool period during week two.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I like the end of the EC ensembles

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Overnight GFS brings in the trough at day 10.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Damp morning.

[T-Town]

60 degrees and misting here. 

[Blizzard777]

Wet out

60* 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Overnight GFS brings in the trough at day 10.

Euro has been bringing that same trough in at day 4.

[Phil]

SeaTac high yesterday was 80°F.

9/2 00z GFS was projecting 90°F.

9/2 00z ECMWF was projecting 79°F.

Error: GFS: +10°F. Euro: -1°F.

 

[Phil]

That is now 2 consecutive days where the GFS missed by a whopping 10°F (or more) inside 24hrs.

Downright embarrassing. It’s supposed to be our flagship model.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

That is now 2 consecutive days where the GFS missed by a whopping 10°F (or more) inside 24hrs.

Downright embarrassing. It’s supposed to be our flagship model.

Did a lot better down here.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did a lot better down here.

And the Euro did better.

Don’t be a simp.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That is now 2 consecutive days where the GFS missed by a whopping 10°F (or more) inside 24hrs.

Downright embarrassing. It’s supposed to be our flagship model.

Low level marine layer clouds/fog... very warm air mass overhead.    The GFS will be wrong for the Puget Sound area every single time under those conditions.   

Tomorrow the GFS shows 80 and the ECMWF shows 80.    I wonder which one will be right?  

 

SEA high on 8/30 was 90°F.

8/29 00z GFS projected 90°F.

8/29 00z ECMWF projected 81°F.

Error: GFS: 0°F. Euro: -9°F.

 

A sunny day without significant marine influence is the ECMWF achilles heel.   LOL.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Low level marine layer clouds/fog... very warm air mass overhead.    The GFS will be wrong for the Puget Sound area every single time under those conditions.   

Tomorrow the GFS shows 80 and the ECMWF shows 80.    I wonder which one will be right?  

 

SEA high on 8/30 was 90°F.

8/29 00z GFS projected 90°F.

8/29 00z ECMWF projected 81°F.

Error: GFS: 0°F. Euro: -9°F.

 

A sunny day without significant marine influence is the ECMWF achilles heel.   LOL.

8/29 ECMWF was projecting 84°F. That’s a hell of a lot closer than the TrashFS missing by 15 degrees on 9/1. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

8/29 ECMWF was projecting 84°F. That’s a hell of a lot closer than the TrashFS missing by 15 degrees on 9/1. 

Not sure about that... but then it was the 12Z 8/30 run that showed 81.    Which would be even worse.   

FWIW... the high on 9/1 was 79.

[Phil]

The GFS projected 117°F here at least a couple of times this summer. I’m sure there were hotter runs that I missed.

Highest we got was 99°F. Lmao.

[TacomaWx]

0.02” so far this morning breaks a 2 week dry streak. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure about that... but then it was the 12Z 8/30 run that showed 81.    Which would be even worse.   

That was the 8/29 12z.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

0.02” so far this morning breaks a 2 week dry streak. 

No precip at all here this morning... low clouds are still broken with mid level clouds above.

[Cascadia_Wx]

What was lost on the Cedar Creek fire yesterday is difficult to fathom. Old growth in the basin of the North Fork Middle fork Willamette, some of the finest in Oregon, was burned and continues to burn. Of course fire is a natural part of the ecosystem and has been around as long as there have been forests, but even before the last five years we were coming from a starting point of 90% of Oregon’s old growth being lost to logging. Seeing fires slowly eat up the irreplaceable bits that were left has been devastating. Just one reason why modern context matters in the fire is natural we just need to embrace it type debates.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

That was the 8/29 12z.

Tomorrow will be the real test with the warm air mass overhead gone.   GFS shows 80 while the ECMWF shows 80.   Can't wait to see which one wins.  

[Phil]

GFS is projecting 89°F again next week.

Anyone believe this will verify? 

[Phil]

Several individuals on this forum would be happier living here.

102°F low. #Perfection #GoldilocksWeather

 

[TacomaWx]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No precip at all here this morning... low clouds are still broken with mid level clouds above.

Feels like fall has arrived here. Based on the overnight runs seems like there’s lots of pleasant early fall weather on the way with some potential for precip. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is projecting 89°F again next week.

Anyone believe this will verify? 

Well if it has the 500mb pattern wrong then it won't verify.   It has also had some runs recently showing highs in the low 60s on some days.   That probably won't verify either.

[ChrisEl Elyon]

59° Cloudy, light mist here in Belltown Seattle 

[Thunder98]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Been a long summer!!

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been a long summer!!

Two months ago today it was raining and in the mid 50s during the 4th of July weekend and it appeared that a wet/cool summer might be unfolding.   Obviously things turned around rather dramatically after that.   It might have seemed long... but it was pretty short in terms of duration.  

And welcome back... hope all is well with you and the family!    

[Cascadia_Wx]

The GFS just will not back down in keeping that midweek trough offshore and putting us into another extended heatwave starting Tuesday. It definitely has recent history on its side. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the other models crumble to it today.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS still refusing to bring that mid-week trough inland on Wednesday.    In fact its trending in the other direction with that system.   That is only 4 days away... one of the models has to cave soon here.  

[Phil]

Old farmers almanac is predicting a +5 January departure in the PNW region. Persistence forecasting? 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The GFS just will not back down in keeping that midweek trough offshore and putting us into another extended heatwave starting Tuesday. It definitely has recent history on its side. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the other models crumble to it today.

My weather app now shows two 90 degree days in the forecast

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Two months ago today it was raining and in the mid 50s during the 4th of July weekend and it appeared that a wet/cool summer might be unfolding.   Obviously things turned around rather dramatically after that.   It might have seemed long... but it was pretty short in terms of duration.  

And welcome back... hope all is well with you and the family!    

Thank brother,  yes all is good just been a busy work summer, I did just take a 2 week road trip and on the first day I had major stomach pains. Long story short my appendix burst and had emergency surgery!! We were back on the road 8 hrs after the surgery and on with the vacation. Doctor said I was a mutant because of how fast I recovered hahaha.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thank brother,  yes all is good just been a busy work summer, I did just take a 2 week road trip and on the first day I had major stomach pains. Long story short my appendix burst and had emergency surgery!! We were back on the road 8 hrs after the surgery and on with the vacation. Doctor said I was a mutant because of how fast I recovered hahaha.

Wow!   That is an amazing turn around.   Glad to hear it went well and you still got to enjoy vacation.   

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thank brother,  yes all is good just been a busy work summer, I did just take a 2 week road trip and on the first day I had major stomach pains. Long story short my appendix burst and had emergency surgery!! We were back on the road 8 hrs after the surgery and on with the vacation. Doctor said I was a mutant because of how fast I recovered hahaha.

D**n man glad to hear you are ok and bounced back so quick.  Welcome back!  Someone was asking about you just the other day

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The GFS just will not back down in keeping that midweek trough offshore and putting us into another extended heatwave starting Tuesday. It definitely has recent history on its side. Wouldn’t surprise me to see the other models crumble to it today.

Upon closer inspection, it appears the GFS’s depiction of a strong Hurricane moving into Baja the middle part of next week is what could be playing a role in setting it apart from the other models for that period. The strong storm seems to want to push the 4CH NW of where the other models have it.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 12Z GFS will still end up much more troughy next weekend despite its handling of the mid-week system.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

GEM is as robust as ever with the Wednesday trough. The way the GFS plays out looks a lot more like what we’ve seen the last few months though, so you’ve got to give it some weight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow!   That is an amazing turn around.   Glad to hear it went well and you still got to enjoy vacation.   

I felt like crap for a week but still had fun. Crazy thing is we were near billings Montana at 2am and when the pain was so intense I had to pull over just 300 yards down the road on the right was a ER emergency building.  Doc said I was lucky because it had just broke but no infection had started.  I'll tell you what man the pain was nothing like I've experienced.