PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

D**n man glad to hear you are ok and bounced back so quick.  Welcome back!  Someone was asking about you just the other day

Thanks man. I normally vanish in the peak summer months,  Tim and Jim probably know this by now. It was just a very busy summer with work and employees. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I felt like crap for a week but still had fun. Crazy thing is we were near billings Montana at 2am and when the pain was so intense I had to pull over just 300 yards down the road on the right was a ER emergency building.  Doc said I was lucky because it had just broke but no infection had started.  I'll tell you what man the pain was nothing like I've experienced.  

Incredibly lucky.    Where were you headed?    After Billings... there is nothing for hundreds of miles going east.    

When did this happen?  We went through Billings on 7/31 and 8/6.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I felt like crap for a week but still had fun. Crazy thing is we were near billings Montana at 2am and when the pain was so intense I had to pull over just 300 yards down the road on the right was a ER emergency building.  Doc said I was lucky because it had just broke but no infection had started.  I'll tell you what man the pain was nothing like I've experienced.  

I had my appendix out about three years ago and I can vouch for the pain part. We were up in the Gifford Pinchot picking huckleberries when it hit and at first I thought it was regular stomach pains and tried to tough it out. By that night it was clear there was something very wrong. Had it out the next morning with emergency surgery, the Dr said it was perforated and very close to bursting when it came out. Close call. We left on a trip to Montana a few days later.

Glad to hear it turned out ok for you too.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Old farmers almanac is predicting a +5 January departure in the PNW region. Persistence forecasting? 

By all accounts a pretty good sign!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Incredibly lucky.    Where were you headed?    After Billings... there is nothing for hundreds of miles going east.    

When did this happen?  We went through Billings on 7/31 and 8/6.

We were headed to cooke city Montana to do some utv riding.  Then we were all over wyoming and Colorado.  I'll post some pics of our adventure,  it was a really cool vacation and we did a bunch of exploring in the utv. We rented a off grid cabin in Colorado at a elevation of 11993 ft !!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It happened on 8/13 Tim.

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Upon closer inspection, it appears the GFS’s depiction of a strong Hurricane moving into Baja the middle part of next week is what could be playing a role in setting it apart from the other models for that period. The strong storm seems to want to push the 4CH NW of where the other models have it.

I think in this case it's more the other way around. The slowing of the trough offshore is what allows the hurricane to take a more westward path.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I think in this case it's more the other way around. The slowing of the trough offshore is what allows the hurricane to take a more westward path.

Could be. Seems like a chicken or egg type thing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I had my appendix out about three years ago and I can vouch for the pain part. We were up in the Gifford Pinchot picking huckleberries when it hit and at first I thought it was regular stomach pains and tried to tough it out. By that night it was clear there was something very wrong. Had it out the next morning with emergency surgery, the Dr said it was perforated and very close to bursting when it came out. Close call. We left on a trip to Montana a few days later.

Glad to hear it turned out ok for you too.

Wow same here, I woke up the morning with a little pain but no big deal. 12 hrs later it hit hard. Like the worst stomach cramp ever 10 times worse. I was walking in circles trying to figure out what to do. This was my first trip to hospital ever in my life.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think in this case it's more the other way around. The slowing of the trough offshore is what allows the hurricane to take a more westward path.

I’d argue it’s both. Diabatic heat release/poleward ridge building in association with the hurricane as well as altered steering, subsequently. 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z ICON looks like the GFS.

[Cascadia_Wx]

GEFS seems to be trending warmer for the middle part of next week. More in line with the operational. 12z Euro should be telling.

We kind of need another multi day heat event like the one on the GFS like JFK needed a hole in the head. Especially with fires starting to go berserk the last few days as things start to reach critical mass for days without regional rainfall.

[Phil]

Canadian looking nice and troughy.

Need to wait for Dr. Euro to arbitrate this.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Canadian looking nice and troughy.

Need to wait for Dr. Euro to arbitrate this.

It’s going to trend warmer. Weekly heatwaves love us this warm season and we’re getting to the point where they can really do some damage.  

[TT-SEA]

The Cedar Creek fire in Oregon seems much less active this morning... and the smoke models keep all the smoke well to the east of western WA for the foreseeable future.    Although that is probably dependent on the 500mb pattern this week which is very much a question mark.  

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’d argue it’s both. Diabatic heat release/poleward ridge building in association  with the hurricane as well as altered steering, subsequently. 

Generally hurricanes are very driven by the upper level steering flow (300-500mb) rather than the other way around. I don't believe they exert much if any influence on the upper level patterns themselves. I think the PNW ridge next week is more of a downstream response to the North Pacific energy getting pinched off, with the hurricane kind of getting bounced around the cracks.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS washes out the mid-week system like the operational run... that is a change from the 00Z run.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Generally hurricanes are very driven by the upper level steering flow (300-500mb) rather than the other way around. I don't believe they exert much if any influence on the upper level patterns themselves. I think the PNW ridge next week is more of a downstream response to the North Pacific energy getting pinched off, with the hurricane kind of getting bounced around the cracks.

The fact that the GFS is producing a strong hurricane at all could be an artifact of its reading/misreading of the 500mb pattern.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Generally hurricanes are very driven by the upper level steering flow (300-500mb) rather than the other way around. I don't believe they exert much if any influence on the upper level patterns themselves. I think the PNW ridge next week is more of a downstream response to the North Pacific energy getting pinched off, with the hurricane kind of getting bounced around the cracks.

Yeah... it seems like hurricanes can be steered in totally different directions by even weak upper level features that are far away.     

[BLI snowman]

Regardless of how next week turns out, the mid month troughing signal is pretty ubiquitous right now and has the best support in a few months.

[Phil]

Everyone would be better off if summer was skipped over altogether. All things considered it serves no purpose.

It is also by far the longest season of the year here. And the slowest to transition out of. Fuuk it.

[TacomaWx]

0.03” this morning looks like will be the final total drizzle seems to have wrapped up for now. C’mon GEM! I feel like the gfs will be wrong but we will see things look pretty uncertain still going forward. All the operational models gfs included show precip in the 7-10 day range so that’s good I guess. 

[Timmy Supercell]

In the 10.5 years of living in southern Oregon, I kind of went from saying to myself I'd miss their summers, to not missing them much. Though the mid-September to mid-November period can be nice. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Generally hurricanes are very driven by the upper level steering flow (300-500mb) rather than the other way around. I don't believe they exert much if any influence on the upper level patterns themselves. I think the PNW ridge next week is more of a downstream response to the North Pacific energy getting pinched off, with the hurricane kind of getting bounced around the cracks.

I disagree, there’s a lot of literature on the effects of hurricanes on mid latitude patterns/waveguides. The extent (and nature) of that is likely state dependent, however.

It’s not my area of expertise, though, so I could be wrong on some of this.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The fact that the GFS is producing a strong hurricane at all could be an artifact of its reading/misreading of the 500mb pattern.

It seems like all of the models want to strongly develop that piece of energy off Central Mexico these next few days into a hurricane. Just a question of how far NW it makes it.

Climo obviously isn't on the GFS's side, FWIW. The 06z and even the 12z basically showed a tropical storm hit on the Channel Islands, something that hasn't occurred since 1939.

Edited September 3, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

It seems like all of the models want to strongly develop that piece of energy off Central Mexico these next few days into a hurricane. Just a question of how far NW it makes it.

Climo obviously isn't on the GFS's side, FWIW. The 06z basically showed a tropical storm hit on the Channel Islands, something that hasn't occurred since 1939.

Yeah I guess I should have said a strong hurricane that far to the NW.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Everyone would be better off if summer was skipped over altogether. All things considered it serves no purpose.

It is also by far the longest season of the year here. And the slowest to transition out of. Fuuk it.

Meanwhile the flip from winter to summer happens in something like 4 weeks. Spring keeps getting shorter and shorter.

And December is an autumn month now. A century ago it was our 2nd snowiest month, now it averages less snow than March.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Everyone would be better off if summer was skipped over altogether. All things considered it serves no purpose.

It is also by far the longest season of the year here. And the slowest to transition out of. Fuuk it.

Irrational weenie post!   Sort of hurts your academic credibility when you act like the rest of us uneducated weenies.   

Of course summer is what makes living away from the equator even possible.   Otherwise we would have a barren Baffin Island type landscape.  

[TacomaWx]

DPs are higher near the fire at Waldo lake thanks to the marine layer making it all the way there this morning…every little bit helps. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

DPs are higher near the fire at Waldo lake thanks to the marine layer making it all the way there this morning…every little bit helps. 

Yeah, just normal marine layer weather  can do wonders. Another few days of heat can be truly damaging at this juncture.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

I disagree, there’s a lot of literature on the effects of hurricanes on mid latitude patterns/waveguides. The extent (and nature) of that is likely state dependent, however.

It’s not my area of expertise, though, so I could be wrong on some of this.

I don't think any of their influences are direct at all. Obviously energy phasing from hurricanes will enhance vorticity which can have downstream impacts, but the upper level patterns remain the puppet master, so to speak.

Edited September 3, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Meanwhile we go from winter to summer in like 4 weeks. Spring keeps getting shorter and shorter.

And December is an autumn month now. A century ago it was our 2nd snowiest month, now it averages less snow than March.  

Early Winter started doing that before I left the northwest. If Dec 2015 didn't happen in Klamath County, that month would have certainly lost a few inches on average compared to 1980-2010 numbers. November lost some, and March gained some when I averaged each one.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS definitely does not look cool and troughy one week from right now.

[Doinko]

In addition to Redmond breaking their September monthly record of 105 with 106 yesterday, Pendleton tied their September record of 104 as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Everyone would be better off if summer was skipped over altogether. All things considered it serves no purpose.

It is also by far the longest season of the year here. And the slowest to transition out of. Fuuk it.

Absolutely. By far our worst season. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

In addition to Redmond breaking their September monthly record of 105 with 106 yesterday, Pendleton tied their September record of 104 as well.

This kind of crap is so common anymore it’s just boring 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, Doiinko said:

In addition to Redmond breaking their September monthly record of 105 with 106 yesterday, Pendleton tied their September record of 104 as well.

Anyone notice KLMT being 95 at 12:53? Then this SSW wind with gusts >30mph. Without that wind, I wonder if they would have broken a September record too.

[Doinko]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

This kind of crap is so common anymore it’s just boring 

Redmond has already seen three monthly records this year which is crazy. February, July and now September. Their monthly maxes:

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Anyone notice KLMT being 95 at 12:53? Then this SSW wind with gusts >30mph. Without that wind, I wonder if they would have broken a September record too.

We could have had a shot at it yesterday as well if it had been 16 degrees warmer. Food for thought...

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Doiinko said:

Redmond has already seen three monthly records this year which is crazy. February, July and now September. Their monthly maxes:

Half of their monthly all time records are now from the 2020s. Which was for years peddled on here as the decade in which global cooling would really take hold