PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[RentonHill]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

It's a hurricane so my money's on south...

 

[Requiem]

As @Kayla posted earlier-- the Double Creek Fire near Imnaha and Hells Canyon absolutely exploded today with a heat signature reminiscent of last year's gargantuan Bootleg Fire. Certainly nowhere near as large, but I wouldn't be shocked if its current 23K acre size more than doubled as a result of this huge run. Fire behavior was so vigorous that a pyrocumulonimbus was present during multiple occasions-- a testament to the tremendous release of energy associated with a fire going nuclear. 

(5) UW-Madison CIMSS on Twitter: "1-minute Mesoscale Sector @NOAASatellites #GOES18 Day Land Cloud Fires RGB & Shortwave Infrared images + #GOES17 Fire Power & Fire Temperature products showed the thermal signature of the #DoubleCreekFire in far northeastern Oregon: https://t.co/3uXvjmyB1w #ORwx https://t.co/Tdtpq5Q4Ue" / Twitter

[ChrisEl Elyon]

24 minutes ago, Kayla said:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Pac_NW-truecolor-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Thanks

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

As @Kayla posted earlier-- the Double Creek Fire near Imnaha and Hells Canyon absolutely exploded today with a heat signature reminiscent of last year's gargantuan Bootleg Fire. Certainly nowhere near as large, but I wouldn't be shocked if its current 23K acre size more than doubled as a result of this huge run. Fire behavior was so vigorous that a pyrocumulonimbus was present during multiple occasions-- a testament to the tremendous release of energy associated with a fire going nuclear. 

(5) UW-Madison CIMSS on Twitter: "1-minute Mesoscale Sector @NOAASatellites #GOES18 Day Land Cloud Fires RGB & Shortwave Infrared images + #GOES17 Fire Power & Fire Temperature products showed the thermal signature of the #DoubleCreekFire in far northeastern Oregon: https://t.co/3uXvjmyB1w #ORwx https://t.co/Tdtpq5Q4Ue" / Twitter

Pretty dry country over there.

[RentonHill]

D**n the latest EPS is off the chain!!

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, JBolin said:

Ehhh, ya know, having a starting rotation with a combined. 0.97 ERA doesn't hurt either.

Add to the fact they're only second behind the Dodgers for best team in MLB since June.

They also expanded the playoffs. I think they'd still make it in with the way they are playing but still.

[TT-SEA]

I count 10 ULLs (or close to it) on the 00Z ECMWF on Thursday afternoon... and one hurricane which looks like another ULL.

[Cloud]

The GFS clearly forgetting what month it is. 

And clearly off its heel. 

How do you go from this to this in one run? Frustrating a** model. 

[Jbolin]

AURORA ALERT  

For Washington

[Cloud]

Unfortunately for us, the Euro seems to agree that it'll be warm too. 

Guess the good news is that it's still a week out. 

[Cloud]

Ensemble is decent enough. 

[kokaneekidz]

27 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Ensemble is decent enough. 

45 degree rain with 40 knot southeasterlies can't come soon enuf for me along with better more restful sleeping patterns.  Bring it

[Cascadia_Wx]

Clear and 54 this morning. Looks like the EPS and GEFS have come to some sort of compromise for the time being. 

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, kokaneekidz said:

45 degree rain with 40 knot southeasterlies can't come soon enuf for me along with better more restful sleeping patterns.  Bring it

Nights are in the 50s now... we already have great sleeping weather.      And I think most of us actually get less sleep during the stormy season! 

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS brings heavy rain to SoCal...

 

[Omegaraptor]

After three days in the mid-high 80s it is now raining in Chicago with a high of 73 forecast. Come on over Phil!

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 55 this morning. Looks pretty smoky over Montana. Cedar creek and the rum fire not looking very active today but the fire in north California and NE Oregon look like they put out a lot of smoke overnight. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is even more ridgy for later in the week.   Looks more stable too.

[TT-SEA]

Ouch...

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM and ICON don't agree with GFS.    

[GobBluth]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ouch...

GFS doubles down on the heat and goes even more nuts, while GEM has collapsed the ridge by Saturday night.

[MossMan]

Windy! Partly sunny! Mild! Leaves are falling on me as I’m washing cars! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As was mentioned. Icon and gem are more tolerable. 

[AlTahoe]

This thread is pretty incredible. The up coming heatwave in Northern California will break all the records. Our turn for June 2021 event. wild.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

This thread is pretty incredible. The up coming heatwave in Northern California will break all the records. Our turn for June 2021 event. wild.

 

 

I was going to mention yesterday that the 4CH is about as strong and solid as we ever see for this coming week.   I think part of the problem with the models is that climo says it should break down but as things get closer the models trend towards persistence.  

[Doinko]

Some September heat records on Friday set in BC

 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 71 out here already... if front holds off until late afternoon we should get into the 80s today.

[kokaneekidz]

15 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

It's real fun in the snow and ice!

Yeah looks like that is the reason for those thick cables along the treacherous areas. Cheers!

[TacomaWx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 71 out here already... if front holds off until late afternoon we should get into the 80s today.

Clouds are already over Olympia/bremerton westward. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Clouds are already over Olympia/bremerton westward. 

I know... but models insist it stays mostly sunny out here until about 5 pm.

Satellite would lead me to believe otherwise.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I know... but models insist it stays mostly sunny out here until about 5 pm.

Satellite would lead me to believe otherwise.

Yeah I could see the clouds on my way to work. This system doesn’t look like a big rainmaker but should maybe dampen some of the fires in the north cascades a little bit. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS has good support from the 12Z GEFS for next weekend.     The GEFS definitely went towards the more ridgy scenario compared to its 00Z run.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Spent last night at the shoe. First time in the Midwest. This is a very flat area. 

Edited September 4, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[TT-SEA]

Just noticed that the ECMWF is really hot down on south on Tuesday.   Its a totally sunny day everywhere with basically no morning low clouds even on the coast... but the ECMWF shows temps stay reasonable up here.   

[Chewbacca Defense]

Cool cloudy morning up here in Bellingham with a temp of 64 and some off and on sprinkles.  It's nice to hear the raindrops hitting the deck & leaves.  I know soon enough the "novelty" will wear off but for today it is very pleasant.

[Requiem]

Will likely be gone next run (hopefully), but the 00Z Euro and more than half of its ensembles modeled gusty offshore winds for the Gorge and associated areas next week. Not nearly as strong as September 2020 or anything, but would be similar to what drove the Eagle Creek Fire.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 77 already in North Bend.    Quite the west to east temp gradient today.   Models show a band of high clouds is breaking off now but the thicker clouds and moisture hangs back to the west until this evening.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

This thread is pretty incredible. The up coming heatwave in Northern California will break all the records. Our turn for June 2021 event. wild.

 

 

Sacramento's all-time record high is 115. They are predicted to hit 114 on Tuesday.

Even if they manage to break the record, that won't come close to June 2021 in the PNW, where many locations shattered the all-time record temps by 5-10 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 12Z ECMWF is going to go more towards the GEM solution... the main difference in the strength of the ridge over the PNW is whether the troughs form a bridge in the GOA (GFS) or stay separate (GEM and ECMWF).    GFS is odd man out.

 

[TT-SEA]

But still... even the 12Z ECMWF shows a very warm air mass overhead next Saturday.