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In general... the ECMWF has been trending less extreme with the amplification with each run. 

Comparison of 12Z run yesterday and new 12Z run for next Monday:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2984000 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2984000.png

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro is basically a compromise between the polar opposite GFS/CMC.

I am starting to track the weather for the big game on 9/12... Russell Wilson's return to Seattle.    Are you still cheering for the Seahawks?   😀

12Z ECMWF shows a perfect day with sun and dry weather and temps only into the low 70s.   

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12Z ECMWF... precip loop for days 3-10.   

Hurricane moisture stays mostly to the south of CA but then some of it does get picked up later and sent across parts of the west.    And rain seemingly wants to avoid western WA and OR.

ecmwf-deterministic-west-precip_6hr_inch-1662292800-1662552000-1663156800-10.gif

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am starting to track the weather for the big game on 9/12... Russell Wilson's return to Seattle.    Are you still cheering for the Seahawks?   😀

12Z ECMWF shows a perfect day with sun and dry weather and temps only into the low 70s.   

I will root for Russell and the Broncos every other game this season. But not the first one.

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12Z EPS and control run look like the operational run.    Overall... the extreme amplification seems to be fading with each run as it gets closer in time.    

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2940800.png

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42 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Too early for call winter cancelled for the PNW?

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4 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

This thread is pretty incredible. The up coming heatwave in Northern California will break all the records. Our turn for June 2021 event. wild.

 

 

I wonder what the chances are for this blob to move over the Northwest... I am guessing pretty good. 

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Up to 80 now out here.    I figured today would reach 80 with the west to east gradient.   Tomorrow should stay in the mid to upper 70s.  Tuesday should be the next shot at 80.   

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8 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Some interesting temperature info for August.  

 

 

 

 

1770824784_AUGUST2022.thumb.png.0039f7089f931af6ecdfdb7c26c4a653.png1607231759_ScreenShot2022-09-04at8_48_29AM.thumb.png.1a4407f5907dfb2291c7c936d162e217.png509061271_chart(26).thumb.png.fde08c396519d3d7835b936f64bb6cc6.pngThanks Cliff.

Lots of warmth.    Way more warmth than cool across the northern hemisphere.

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82 at SLE at 2pm... Warm day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, Requiem said:

Will likely be gone next run (hopefully), but the 00Z Euro and more than half of its ensembles modeled gusty offshore winds for the Gorge and associated areas next week. Not nearly as strong as September 2020 or anything, but would be similar to what drove the Eagle Creek Fire.

So unfortunately this is still a thing on the EURO. Hot temperatures+gusty winds= not a good time. 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

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18Z GFS looks similar to the 12Z for next weekend.    Might finally be settling on a solution.    And it's looks warm.

Below is yesterday's 18Z GFS for next weekend and the new 18Z run.   There might have been a 1955 jinx involved yesterday.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2854400 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2854400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

Some interesting temperature info for August.  

 

 

 

 

1770824784_AUGUST2022.thumb.png.0039f7089f931af6ecdfdb7c26c4a653.png1607231759_ScreenShot2022-09-04at8_48_29AM.thumb.png.1a4407f5907dfb2291c7c936d162e217.png509061271_chart(26).thumb.png.fde08c396519d3d7835b936f64bb6cc6.pngThanks Cliff.

This summer has had the heat concentrated in the mid latitudes, but not so much in the Arctic. Looks like Arctic ice will finish with a higher minimum than any year since 2014.

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39 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Good chance we maxed out at 76 today…down to 74 now with increasing clouds. Looks like precip is west of Elma for now. 

Peaked at 81 in North Bend... down to 78 now.    Looks like the clouds are moving back in fast than models showed.   Front is really shearing apart now.   Tomorrow should be a spectacular day.

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4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Sacramento's all-time record high is 115. They are predicted to hit 114 on Tuesday.

Even if they manage to break the record, that won't come close to June 2021 in the PNW, where many locations shattered the all-time record temps by 5-10 degrees.

If Sacramento overperforms and hits 116 they will match Portland’s record. Which has similar geography, but is just 7 degrees of latitude farther north.

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Question: With all this talk about the Wlliamette Valley basically becoming Sacramento, when was the last time Salem recorded at least one inch of measurable snow fall?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Question: With all this talk about the Wlliamette Valley basically becoming Sacramento, when was the last time Salem recorded at least one inch of measurable snow fall?

I don't think they record anymore but they definitely had more than an inch in December 2021 I think. Eugene actually had their snowiest December day.

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2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Ironic that the Mariners are on a rain delay.

Gotta try to get that game in for couple more innings for it to become official. Radar still look quite active for the area and these cells could potentially have some thunder and lightning associated with them so we gotta see if they can. 

81806A97-4A82-430F-9BD4-013D3CABF791.gif

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23 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Question: With all this talk about the Wlliamette Valley basically becoming Sacramento, when was the last time Salem recorded at least one inch of measurable snow fall?

Yeah, they had several inches on the 26th.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We really are going to have to wait until about the 15th to stop torching. Going to be a LONG week or two. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We really are going to have to wait until about the 15th to stop torching. Going to be a LONG week or two. 

Portland could make it to the 2nd longest dry streak on record too. Salem had some rain with the thunderstorms on the 9th I think.

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We really are going to have to wait until about the 15th to stop torching. Going to be a LONG week or two. 

This is not a troll post.   Today is the equivalent of March 4th.    At this point in the spring we had almost a 3-month wait ahead for something nice.   Early June was still very wet but temps were not cold.   On March 3rd we were still 5 weeks away from a week of cold and snow.  It was a very, very long wait this past spring.   I would have loved just a 2-week wait on March 4th.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Portland could make it to the 2nd longest dry streak on record too. Salem had some rain with the thunderstorms on the 9th I think.

Yes, same here. We had about 1/2" soaker in July and 0.33" with that thunderstorm in August, we also had about 0.10" of rain yesterday with light rain out of the marine layer. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is not a troll post.   Today is the equivalent of March 4th.    At this point in the spring we had almost a 3-month wait ahead for something nice.   Early June was still very wet but temps were not cold.   On March 3rd we were still 5 weeks away from a week of cold and snow.  It was a very, very long wait this past spring.   I would have loved just a 2-week wait on March 4th.   

So spring 2021? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I've noticed the GFS operational has really let the way in comparison to the ensembles. Even when it looks like an outlier. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So spring 2021? 

Spring 2023 has to be better than 2022.   A normal spring with 35-40 dry days will seem incredible now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Spring 2023 has to be better than 2022.   A normal spring with 35-40 dry days will seem incredible now.

I'm sure we will torch the next few springs to makeup for this one. Who knows, we could get lucky and have at least a 2012ish spring. That wasn't horrible by your standards. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm sure we will torch the next few springs to makeup for this one. Who knows, we could get lucky and have at least a 2012ish spring. That wasn't horrible by your standards. 

My standard for spring is just climo now.    Pretty reasonable.    Would be a vast improvement over 2022.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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