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64 and still under the marine layer. Probably will burn off sometime in the next hour based on satellite imagery. 
 Operational models don’t look too bad over the next week. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better now than January. 

Exactly. Save it for Thanksgiving-Feb.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Any reason for late October specifically?

Seems conceivable that it could change sooner considering we’ve been stuck with that pattern since sometime in July, and now wavelengths are shortening/lengthening.

Not thinking late October but maybe early to mid October.

Strong GOA energy through September is climo so betting on persistence there. It's not until mid October that Rossby wave lengthening starts to really come into effect is how I understand it.

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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  • Longtimer
17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah torching the rest of the year has really been working out great for colder winters lately.

Sure has!! 

04D10B12-969B-4511-9DC2-D6D2E823AF79.jpeg

E9E96C9A-4B15-4B25-AB00-B3591EC53EBE.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

 

LWX does severe thunderstorm warnings like PQR does winter storm warnings.

Over-warning is certainly an issue, but no more egregious here than other places I’ve been to. Lots of borderline storms with 50-55mph winds at DCA this summer, and ironically many of them weren’t warned at all, including one which produced a 57mph gust just last month.

Something like 80% of severe wx here is microburst activity that is small in scale, short in duration, and therefore difficult to predict. But it’s very frequent in this region, mostly for topographic reasons.

Still, most places under the severe warning don’t actually experience conditions meeting severe criteria due to its localized nature.

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  • Longtimer
21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah torching the rest of the year has really been working out great for colder winters lately.

Could have been worse. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Marine layer squeezed in here after dawn.   It was a rare (for this summer) top down burn off out here today rather than clearing from south or west as is typical when the marine layer is the result of a trough.    There has been almost no days this summer with a marine layer out here with a warm air mass overhead... but it happened today.   The little marine layer we have seen this summer has been with troughing. A top down clearing pattern is common on days like this with a lack of strong onshore flow and a warm air mass overhead.  This was very common in the summer of 2010 when almost every day started out cloudy despite a lack of troughing overhead. 

Anyways... totally sunny here now and the temp has jumped up into the 70s very quickly.   Likely heading for another day in the 80s.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like there is lots of spread on the 12Z EPS.   Doesn't look too troughy or too ridgy.   Hopefully that means it ends up just being really nice... not too hot and not too cold and generally sunny. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1662033600-1662033600-1663329600-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like there is lots of spread on the 12Z EPS.   Doesn't look too troughy or too ridgy.   Hopefully that means it ends up just being really nice... not too hot and not too cold and generally sunny. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1662033600-1662033600-1663329600-10.gif

Looks typical onshore flow to me. 

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  • Longtimer
38 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

here spaghetti

ens_image.png.53709ba22bac5e15e97a7301f5260cad.png

Thank you. These are much more useful than a smoothed mean. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thank you. These are much more useful than a smoothed mean. 

Lots of spread.    Says the same thing... but map shows all of North America and not just what is projected for a single location on the planet.   Seeing all the members is nice.   Seeing the big picture of the overall pattern is also nice. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Summer and winter can easily start and end with the same weather.   And unfortunately around here... spring can get pretty close as well.    That is not true for many places.   It was 57 degrees for a high at SEA on March 1st this year and 56 degrees on May 29th which is almost the end of spring.     But there is zero chance that the last day of fall will be anywhere close to the weather we have on this first day of fall.   😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer and winter can easily start and end with the same weather.   Unfortunately around here... spring can get pretty close as well.    It was 57 degrees for a high at SEA on March 1st this year and 56 degrees on May 29th which is almost the end of spring.     But there is zero chance that the last day of fall will be anywhere close to the weather we have on this first day of fall.   😀

So what you're trying to tell us is the last day of fall will most likely be in the 40s, dreary, drippy and possibly rainy? 

Noted! Sounds like WONDERFUL weather to me. ;)

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

So what you're trying to tell us is the last day of fall will most likely be in the 40s, dreary, drippy and possibly rainy? 

Noted! Sounds like WONDERFUL weather to me. ;)

I am saying its not even possible for it to be 80 degrees and sunny in my backyard on November 30th... but its very easy on September 1st and its happening now!  

November through February is warm weather vacation time.   👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Decent 18z RUN.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like another 90 is pretty much a lock today. Seems like a marine layer burn off at 11am on 9/1 would usually make it a little tougher to achieve 

Yeah, but 850mb temps are pushing 22-23C. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

It really does look like we will have a taste of fall by mid-month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Looking at the PRISM data, July was the 9th warmest since 1895 here with a monthly mean of 65.4. Warmest was July 1906 with a mean of 67.0. 

August data hasn't been finalized yet. Looks like our warmest August was 1986, also with a mean of 67.0. At least on this data set, slightly warmer than August 1967. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Fun fact!

Sun angles today are lower than they were on 4/11/22.

Not snowing yet...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Fun fact!

Sun angles today are lower than they were on 4/11/22.

I hadn't joined this forum then but I was lurking without an account. I received around 2 inches of snow! It wasn't as much as some places and melted by midday but was still crazy for April!

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Not a very exciting title this month.

No one wants to jinx anything!  The August title was a bad deal for people who like cool weather.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Fun fact!

Sun angles today are lower than they were on 4/11/22.

Well then I’m fully expecting to see this scene when I get home in a bit. 

D84D9210-7D42-4A3B-98B6-3FE87EA9CDCB.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Prolly just cuz the ground is to warm.

We saw how that worked in Tennessee when they got snow. 

"It'll melt right after falling" turned into don't travel for a couple days. 🧐 
I think that argument only works if its an inch or two. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Looks like SEA is running 15 lower than PDX right now.  We lucked out for the first day of September.  I'm really surprised the marine layer didn't have more punch down south.

 
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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the PRISM data, July was the 9th warmest since 1895 here with a monthly mean of 65.4. Warmest was July 1906 with a mean of 67.0. 

August data hasn't been finalized yet. Looks like our warmest August was 1986, also with a mean of 67.0. At least on this data set, slightly warmer than August 1967. 

August 2022 had 79.1 Mean at KMFR. 2017 (record) had 78.1. Hawt.

It's around a 5th or 6th warmest at KLMT. It's hard to give that place warm lows in the late summer which holds August back if the cards don't line up exactly. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like SEA is running 15 lower than PDX right now.  We lucked out for the first day of September.  I'm really surprised the marine layer didn't have more punch down south.

 

More like 12 or 13 between SEA and PDX. 

The other day SEA had a high of 90 while PDX reached 100.    So it's not that different in terms of the gap.

It's 82 here... only 8 degrees cooler than PDX.  👍

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Remarkable stats from the Atlantic this season.

1. Only the third time since 1950 there were no named storms in the month of August...1961, 1997 were the others.

2. First time since 1941 to have no named storms in the July 3 through August period.

1941 and 1997 were both big El Ninos.  Really strange.

  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It really does look like we will have a taste of fall by mid-month. 

Yeah...everything is showing the PNA going minus soon.

  • Snow 1
  • Downvote 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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  • Longtimer
10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like SEA is running 15 lower than PDX right now.  We lucked out for the first day of September.  I'm really surprised the marine layer didn't have more punch down south.

 

We’re right on the edge of subsidence inversions being able to hold on. 7-10 days from now it would have been pretty hard to mix out without some kind of downslope component. Even today places in the foothills up around 2500’ got into the mid 90’s while the valleys are around 90. It’s a warm air mass.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

We’re right on the edge of subsidence inversions being able to hold on. 7-10 days from now it would have been pretty hard to mix out without some kind of downslope component. Even today places in the foothills up around 2500’ got into the mid 90’s while the valleys are around 90. It’s a warm air mass.

I was just thinking maybe SEA being a bit north made it just possible for the inversion to hold on today.  At any rate we really lucked out coming in this cool.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Pretty amazing stat about the last ten years. 
 

 

Just amazing.    Everything in late spring pointed to a cool payback summer.    And it ends up not being cool or even normal... it actually ups the ante on the warming summers over the last decade and was top tier warm.   Hard to believe.    Not sure how we get a cool payback summer now.   I am starting to doubt its even possible at this point.   

I am also really interested to see how the effects of Tonga play out over the next 5+ years.    It just seems like warmth might be even easier to achieve.    All speculation of course... but we are dealing with an unprecedented event and the first northern hemisphere summer has been crazy warm in many far apart places like China and Europe and the PNW.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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