PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[TacomaWx]

64 and still under the marine layer. Probably will burn off sometime in the next hour based on satellite imagery. 
 Operational models don’t look too bad over the next week. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better now than January. 

Exactly. Save it for Thanksgiving-Feb.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Exactly. Save it for Thanksgiving-Feb.

Yeah torching the rest of the year has really been working out great for colder winters lately.

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Any reason for late October specifically?

Seems conceivable that it could change sooner considering we’ve been stuck with that pattern since sometime in July, and now wavelengths are shortening/lengthening.

Not thinking late October but maybe early to mid October.

Strong GOA energy through September is climo so betting on persistence there. It's not until mid October that Rossby wave lengthening starts to really come into effect is how I understand it.

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah torching the rest of the year has really been working out great for colder winters lately.

Sure has!! 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

 

LWX does severe thunderstorm warnings like PQR does winter storm warnings.

Over-warning is certainly an issue, but no more egregious here than other places I’ve been to. Lots of borderline storms with 50-55mph winds at DCA this summer, and ironically many of them weren’t warned at all, including one which produced a 57mph gust just last month.

Something like 80% of severe wx here is microburst activity that is small in scale, short in duration, and therefore difficult to predict. But it’s very frequent in this region, mostly for topographic reasons.

Still, most places under the severe warning don’t actually experience conditions meeting severe criteria due to its localized nature.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah torching the rest of the year has really been working out great for colder winters lately.

Could have been worse. 

[TT-SEA]

Marine layer squeezed in here after dawn.   It was a rare (for this summer) top down burn off out here today rather than clearing from south or west as is typical when the marine layer is the result of a trough.    There has been almost no days this summer with a marine layer out here with a warm air mass overhead... but it happened today.   The little marine layer we have seen this summer has been with troughing. A top down clearing pattern is common on days like this with a lack of strong onshore flow and a warm air mass overhead.  This was very common in the summer of 2010 when almost every day started out cloudy despite a lack of troughing overhead. 

Anyways... totally sunny here now and the temp has jumped up into the 70s very quickly.   Likely heading for another day in the 80s.

[Cloud]

Marine layer burning off nicely. 

 

[Phil]

Lol @ the D9 reversal on the EPS control run.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like there is lots of spread on the 12Z EPS.   Doesn't look too troughy or too ridgy.   Hopefully that means it ends up just being really nice... not too hot and not too cold and generally sunny. 

[RentonHillTC]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like there is lots of spread on the 12Z EPS.   Doesn't look too troughy or too ridgy.   Hopefully that means it ends up just being really nice... not too hot and not too cold and generally sunny. 

here spaghetti

[Cloud]

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like there is lots of spread on the 12Z EPS.   Doesn't look too troughy or too ridgy.   Hopefully that means it ends up just being really nice... not too hot and not too cold and generally sunny. 

Looks typical onshore flow to me. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

here spaghetti

Thank you. These are much more useful than a smoothed mean. 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thank you. These are much more useful than a smoothed mean. 

Lots of spread.    Says the same thing... but map shows all of North America and not just what is projected for a single location on the planet.   Seeing all the members is nice.   Seeing the big picture of the overall pattern is also nice. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Marine layer burning off nicely. 

 

A true "burn off" today.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 80 in North Bend now.

[Cloud]

Metrological fall starts off on a nice note today. SEA hung onto the 60s until 2pm today thanks to deep marine layer. 

Nice little bowl graph on the temperature chart. 

[TacomaWx]

71 here not warming up as fast as I thought. 

[TT-SEA]

Summer and winter can easily start and end with the same weather.   And unfortunately around here... spring can get pretty close as well.    That is not true for many places.   It was 57 degrees for a high at SEA on March 1st this year and 56 degrees on May 29th which is almost the end of spring.     But there is zero chance that the last day of fall will be anywhere close to the weather we have on this first day of fall.   

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer and winter can easily start and end with the same weather.   Unfortunately around here... spring can get pretty close as well.    It was 57 degrees for a high at SEA on March 1st this year and 56 degrees on May 29th which is almost the end of spring.     But there is zero chance that the last day of fall will be anywhere close to the weather we have on this first day of fall.   

So what you're trying to tell us is the last day of fall will most likely be in the 40s, dreary, drippy and possibly rainy? 

Noted! Sounds like WONDERFUL weather to me.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

So what you're trying to tell us is the last day of fall will most likely be in the 40s, dreary, drippy and possibly rainy? 

Noted! Sounds like WONDERFUL weather to me.

I am saying its not even possible for it to be 80 degrees and sunny in my backyard on November 30th... but its very easy on September 1st and its happening now!  

November through February is warm weather vacation time.   

[T-Town]

https://twitter.com/nwsseattle/status/1565415452506918913?s=21&t=wmGaOd9d6FwcbLP7YWJ9AA

[T-Town]

Pretty amazing stat about the last ten years. 
 

 

[RentonHillTC]

5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Pretty amazing stat about the last ten years. 
 

 

I, for one, am glad that summers are warming

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like another 90 is pretty much a lock today. Seems like a marine layer burn off at 11am on 9/1 would usually make it a little tougher to achieve 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Decent 18z RUN.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like another 90 is pretty much a lock today. Seems like a marine layer burn off at 11am on 9/1 would usually make it a little tougher to achieve 

Yeah, but 850mb temps are pushing 22-23C. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It really does look like we will have a taste of fall by mid-month. 

[Deweydog]

Fun fact!

Sun angles today are lower than they were on 4/11/22.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the PRISM data, July was the 9th warmest since 1895 here with a monthly mean of 65.4. Warmest was July 1906 with a mean of 67.0. 

August data hasn't been finalized yet. Looks like our warmest August was 1986, also with a mean of 67.0. At least on this data set, slightly warmer than August 1967. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Fun fact!

Sun angles today are lower than they were on 4/11/22.

Not snowing yet...

[Doiinko]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Fun fact!

Sun angles today are lower than they were on 4/11/22.

I hadn't joined this forum then but I was lurking without an account. I received around 2 inches of snow! It wasn't as much as some places and melted by midday but was still crazy for April!

[Mr Marine Layer]

Not a very exciting title this month.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not snowing yet...

Prolly just cuz the ground is to warm.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Not a very exciting title this month.

No one wants to jinx anything!  The August title was a bad deal for people who like cool weather.  

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Fun fact!

Sun angles today are lower than they were on 4/11/22.

Well then I’m fully expecting to see this scene when I get home in a bit. 

[Timmy Supercell]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Prolly just cuz the ground is to warm.

We saw how that worked in Tennessee when they got snow. 

"It'll melt right after falling" turned into don't travel for a couple days.  
I think that argument only works if its an inch or two. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like SEA is running 15 lower than PDX right now.  We lucked out for the first day of September.  I'm really surprised the marine layer didn't have more punch down south.

 

•  
• Quote

[Timmy Supercell]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looking at the PRISM data, July was the 9th warmest since 1895 here with a monthly mean of 65.4. Warmest was July 1906 with a mean of 67.0. 

August data hasn't been finalized yet. Looks like our warmest August was 1986, also with a mean of 67.0. At least on this data set, slightly warmer than August 1967. 

August 2022 had 79.1 Mean at KMFR. 2017 (record) had 78.1. Hawt.

It's around a 5th or 6th warmest at KLMT. It's hard to give that place warm lows in the late summer which holds August back if the cards don't line up exactly. 

[BLI snowman]

40s to 90s at EUG today.

[ChrisAmunRA]

77° Boeing Field (BFI) 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like SEA is running 15 lower than PDX right now.  We lucked out for the first day of September.  I'm really surprised the marine layer didn't have more punch down south.

 

•  
• Quote

More like 12 or 13 between SEA and PDX. 

The other day SEA had a high of 90 while PDX reached 100.    So it's not that different in terms of the gap.

It's 82 here... only 8 degrees cooler than PDX.  

[ChrisAmunRA]

75° Belltown Seattle 

[Tyler Mode]

87 today, below forecast but well above average.

[snow_wizard]

Remarkable stats from the Atlantic this season.

1. Only the third time since 1950 there were no named storms in the month of August...1961, 1997 were the others.

2. First time since 1941 to have no named storms in the July 3 through August period.

1941 and 1997 were both big El Ninos.  Really strange.

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It really does look like we will have a taste of fall by mid-month. 

Yeah...everything is showing the PNA going minus soon.

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like SEA is running 15 lower than PDX right now.  We lucked out for the first day of September.  I'm really surprised the marine layer didn't have more punch down south.

 

•  
• Quote

We’re right on the edge of subsidence inversions being able to hold on. 7-10 days from now it would have been pretty hard to mix out without some kind of downslope component. Even today places in the foothills up around 2500’ got into the mid 90’s while the valleys are around 90. It’s a warm air mass.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

We’re right on the edge of subsidence inversions being able to hold on. 7-10 days from now it would have been pretty hard to mix out without some kind of downslope component. Even today places in the foothills up around 2500’ got into the mid 90’s while the valleys are around 90. It’s a warm air mass.

I was just thinking maybe SEA being a bit north made it just possible for the inversion to hold on today.  At any rate we really lucked out coming in this cool.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Pretty amazing stat about the last ten years. 
 

 

Just amazing.    Everything in late spring pointed to a cool payback summer.    And it ends up not being cool or even normal... it actually ups the ante on the warming summers over the last decade and was top tier warm.   Hard to believe.    Not sure how we get a cool payback summer now.   I am starting to doubt its even possible at this point.   

I am also really interested to see how the effects of Tonga play out over the next 5+ years.    It just seems like warmth might be even easier to achieve.    All speculation of course... but we are dealing with an unprecedented event and the first northern hemisphere summer has been crazy warm in many far apart places like China and Europe and the PNW.